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Offseason plan in the event the Sox don't get HarpChado


Jack Parkman
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2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yeah, gotta disagree with your thinking here.  With our prospect depth, 2 to 3 win players shouldn’t (hopefully) be hard to come by.  Developing stars will be the challenge and the first prospect we’ve called up with that type of upside didn’t make a convincing first case that he’ll ever reach his ceiling.  Banking on us hitting on all three of Moncada, Jimenez, & Robert seems like a dangerous proposition.

 

It's a lot less dangerous than signing Harper and having him underperform or get hurt, which is a very realistic possibility. 

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Just now, ptatc said:

Well its obviously not an unbeatable offer if they go elsewhere. That is different than offering the most money.

I don't know that I've ever offered a ban bet before, but if you offered me a bet that Bryce Harper will take the largest dollar amount he is offered I would probably take that bet. 

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2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Because they'd feel better about hahn and KW if they didn't say anything while doing their usual thing perhaps?

Um yeah I guess it’s so stupid of people to expect execution from a front office on their second shot of trying to execute things? 

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8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I have no urge to try to sign 3 WAR players. They are, IMO, the guys that are the most likely to underperform.

3-WAR players are guys that their teams could always sign if they wanted to keep them, and their team has decided that player isn't worth that money to them.  They're they guys where a team may not even offer them a QO because they don't want them back. 

If you've got to sign 1 of them to fill a role at the end, fine. But we've played this game before. We know how that game goes. That's the Todd Frazier, Jeff Samardzija game - we expect more out of those guys than we actually get, and they don't make a big difference in the end. 

I can just as easily name a series of 3 WAR players that hit as you can that missed. That's part of the game. The good thing is that 3 WAR players that don't hit also don't cost nearly half a billion dollars. 

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3 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

I can just as easily name a series of 3 WAR players that hit as you can that missed. That's part of the game. The good thing is that 3 WAR players that don't hit also don't cost nearly half a billion dollars. 

You know what? Go do it then. Go look at the performance of guys who sign $15-$20 million a year, multi-year contracts the last few years. How many of them outperform? How many underperform.

The last time I did that exercise was after 2016 and the results of these guys made me sick to my stomach. That part of the market was something like $13 million/WAR because so many of them underperformed. You had better luck signing the really big names or signing the value guys.

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Just now, TaylorStSox said:

It's a lot less dangerous than signing Harper and having him underperform or get hurt, which is a very realistic possibility. 

If you’re afraid to take risks, then you’re setting yourself up for mediocrity IMO.  I get the Astros developed most of their core on their own (although they’ve since augmented), but that’s simply not very realistic for us.  We will have to sign a premier free agent or two at some point (ideally while our core is still cheap) if we want to maximize our chances of putting together a championship caliber roster.

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8 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Agreed. I’m not sure of the latter either. But do you have any idea why people keep saying that they wish Hahn and KW hadn’t said anything about trying to sign them?

I don’t understand what is difficult to grasp that if a front office says things are going to be different this time and they are going to be aggressive for top free agents and then they do not sign them that people correctly identify that as a failure on front office who incorrectly assessed the market for their main targets.

If they said they were not targeting them and didn’t land them after checking in, then they would need to show they did what they can to pull this core forward without outside help.

But yes, judging front offices by their execution of plans they described is something many will do.

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

You know what? Go do it then. Go look at the performance of guys who sign $15-$20 million a year, multi-year contracts the last few years. How many of them outperform? How many underperform.

 

Hahaha. You just completely defined some really arbitrary numbers and tried to send me on a mission? Good luck with that. 

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2 hours ago, ptatc said:

This is the reason the White Sox never wanted to do a true, complete rebuild. Not to pick on you individually but I think this is the sentiment of most Sox fans and the fanbase will not tolerate a true rebuild. The cubs had 4 years of losing 90+ games, the Astros had 3 straight 100 loss seasons. The Sox fan base won't tolerate that.

 

I think the problem is they were losing 100 games before the rebuild.

It's been a pretty long stretch of 90+ losses even if the "rebuild" is only a couple years old.

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Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

If you’re afraid to take risks, then you’re setting yourself up for mediocrity IMO.  I get the Astros developed most of their core on their own (although they’ve since augmented), but that’s simply not very realistic for us.  We will have to sign a premier free agent or two at some point (ideally while our core is still cheap) if we want to maximize our chances of putting together a championship caliber roster.

The Sox are basically a small market team. They can't afford those risks. I think I'm just more realistic about the Sox position in the market than some of you guys. 

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4 minutes ago, black jack said:

 

I think the problem is they were losing 100 games before the rebuild.

It's been a pretty long stretch of 90+ losses even if the "rebuild" is only a couple years old.

They only had  2 90 loss seasons since 1990 not involved in this rebuild and that was only 1 season.

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3 hours ago, fathom said:

- trade Yolmer Sanchez for Jose Martinez

- trade Yonder to Yankees for 25-30 range prospect

- sign Ottavino to be closer (2/20 with vesting 3rd year option depending on games finished)

- sign Pollock to 4/70

- sign Dozier to 2/20

- sign Ervin Santana to 1 year deal

None of these deals block the future prospects outside of Pollock, who you can easily move to a corner if Robert fulfills his potential.

I've seen worse lineups than Moncada/Pollock/Abreu/Jimenez/Martinez/Palka/Dozier/Castillo/Anderson

Good with these except for the Pollock part.  Not excited about Martinez either.

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5 minutes ago, bmags said:

I don’t understand what is difficult to grasp that if a front office says things are going to be different this time and they are going to be aggressive for top free agents and then they do not sign them that people correctly identify that as a failure on front office who incorrectly assessed the market for their main targets.

If they said they were not targeting them and didn’t land them after checking in, then they would need to show they did what they can to pull this core forward without outside help.

But yes, judging front offices by their execution of plans they described is something many will do.

If we don’t sign either guy, fans have every right to label that as a failure by the front office. But I would rather have them be honest about going all in if they fail. I wouldn’t want them to fail and pretend all along that they weren’t really going after them. 

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1 hour ago, SoxBlanco said:

First, what was the closest thing they actually said to “going all out” for them?

Second, saying they will pursue the two big free agents does not mean it’s guaranteed that they sign them. I still have no idea why people are so upset with Hahn and/or KW’s comments. Is it because you will be mad that you got your hopes up?

soxfan49, this isn’t directed at you only. I just don’t understand why anybody is so upset with Hahn and KW for not hiding the fact that they will try to sign the whales. 

KW said “this offseason would be different.”

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2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Calling us a small market team is absolutely ridiculous.

We most likely have 30% of a 9,000,000 person market. We're definitely smaller than the Mets and Angels, who share a much larger market. I'm surprised people haven't actually quantified the stats. I see a lot of talk about how we could be bigger, but I see very little evidence that we actually are bigger. 

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4 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

If we don’t sign either guy, fans have every right to label that as a failure by the front office. But I would rather have them be honest about going all in if they fail. I wouldn’t want them to fail and pretend all along that they weren’t really going after them. 

I get it, you prefer this open communication. I think you misunderstand the critique. People are saying if you weren’t prepared for what it took to get players, you shouldn’t have said they were. Same goes for Phillies owner.

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11 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Also, if Moncada, Robert and/or Jimenez don't become stars, the rebuild ain't gonna amount to much anyway. 

That's the truth...well it doesn't matter who they are (although those are the most likely) but they need 4 or so homegrown stars out of this rebuild.

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6 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Also, if Moncada, Robert and/or Jimenez don't become stars, the rebuild ain't gonna amount to much anyway. 

Why is it an either/or type thing?  Adding a star via free agency allows us to overcome one of those guys not hitting their ceiling.  If they all reach their potential plus we add Machado or Harper then great, but we shouldn’t make decisions today assuming all our young guys are going to work out.

Also, how quickly does Robert become an impact player exactly?  He may not be up here until late 2020 / early 2021 and could take a year or two before he finds his stride.  Meanwhile, we burn through Moncada & Jimenez’s service while we wait.  Adding a legit star or two takes some pressure off our kids needing to come out of the gate guns blazing to be competitive.

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Just now, GreenSox said:

That's the truth...well it doesn't matter who they are (although those are the most likely) but they need 4 or so homegrown stars out of this rebuild.

We might get some surprises with guys like Adolfo or Rutherford, but this rebuild hinges on the big 3, at least offensively. 

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1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why is it an either/or type thing?  Adding a star via free agency allows us to overcome one of those guys not hitting their ceiling.  If they all reach their potential plus we add Machado or Harper then great, but we shouldn’t make decisions today assuming all our young guys are going to work out.

Also, how quickly does Robert become an impact player exactly?  He may not be up here until late 2020 / early 2021 and could take a year or two before he finds his stride.  Meanwhile, we burn through Moncada & Jimenez’s service while we wait.  Adding a legit star or two takes some pressure off our kids needing to come out of the gate guns blazing to be competitive.

Because $$$ and market share. 

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