Sox acquire Nomar Mazara for Steele Walker

[southsideirish71]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

What are you talking about, a 1 year 8 mill 3 WAR guy is what Joc Pederson is now and he was clearly expensive enough that they went after Mazara instead. We gave up a top ten prospect for Mazara, what do you think Pederson gets?



And if he fails...and you have Springer. So your "oh no this deal is WORSE if we get springer" I can't get mad about that because it is all predicated on having Springer.



There is a -400% chance that we land Springer on the open market.  

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

What are you talking about, a 1 year 8 mill 3 WAR guy is what Joc Pederson is now and he was clearly expensive enough that they went after Mazara instead. We gave up a top ten prospect for Mazara, what do you think Pederson gets?

And if he fails...and you have Springer. So your "oh no this deal is WORSE if we get springer" I can't get mad about that because it is all predicated on having Springer.

Except you aren't thinking about this like a team that would make this move, you're trying to think about this as a big market franchise when this is a move for a small market franchise. A small market franchise thinks they have a 1 win player in the OF and that position is covered, they don't think about paying for Springer. 

[South Side Fireworks Man]

7 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

And what ever happened to the narrative if the guy was good, the fact that he played for the White Sox increased his chances of not walking? 

Scott Boras.

EDIT:  Ooops, my bad.  I thought I read last night that he was a client of Boras.  Apparently I was misinformed.

 

Edited December 11, 2019 by South Side Fireworks Man

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, Wisebri224 said:

The argument is, if he slugs for two years, great, but there were options to improve longer than two years then have the conversation again.  If they actually hit on this, will they actually re-sign a Boras agent or let him walk because he's too pricey.  Sorry when the FO continues to play this back and forth narrative, it gets confusing for fans and eveyone on what the plan is exactly.....what LONG term benefit could this have???

His agent is not scott boras.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

Everything is Samardjiza trade. Even when it's not at all a samardjiza trade.

Because we never learned our lesson. 

And anyway, you should be happy I'm mentioning that one, because it's not the only example and people are more sick of hearing of the other time when we did the exact same t thing and it worked out worse.

This site had people spend 10 years saying "We're fine trading low-level prospects for middling major leaguers because trading away the prospects never comes back to haunt us". And then it did, badly. That should have taught us the lesson, but well here we are again. And this one will probably work out ok, the next one will probably work out ok,  but then the 3rd one will give away someone who turns out to be really valuable and you'll be back to saying "Everything is the _____" trade, without noting how we got there.

The thought process is the same. Low level prospects are ok to give up, because most of them bust, and mediocre big leaguers might have some upside. Exactly the same logic today.

[TomPickle]

The problem that I have with this move is that right now it signals to me that the front office is still not thinking that 2020 is part of their contention window. On top of that, there is no evidence of the White Sox bringing in flawed players like Mazara and taking advantage of their skills and hiding their flaws. Is there any reason to think that Mazara is going to get 30 starts at DH or not get 30 starts against lefties?

Mazara is a step closer to going .500 from Cordell and Tilson, obviously, but I don't want the goal to be going .500 in 2020.

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Except you aren't thinking about this like a team that would make this move, you're trying to think about this as a big market franchise when this is a move for a small market franchise. A small market franchise thinks they have a 1 win player in the OF and that position is covered, they don't think about paying for Springer. 

This is nonsense, you were just complaining about how it would be bad if they signed springer because it like overwrote Mazara, but now you are saying "well obviously they would not sign Springer". Well yeah, the problem is they won't sign Springer, there would be zero problem if they signed Springer.

[bmags]

6 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

There is a -400% chance that we land Springer on the open market.  

No shit. Doesn't mean it's not what they should do. They should pay Betts and have an unbelievable offense through the first half of the decade while finding Mazara-like pitchers.

[steveno89]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

This is nonsense, you were just complaining about how it would be bad if they signed springer because it like overwrote Mazara, but now you are saying "well obviously they would not sign Springer". Well yeah, the problem is they won't sign Springer, there would be zero problem if they signed Springer.

If the Sox are passing on Castellanos/Ozuna's pricetag, they sure as hell will not be in on guys like Betts/Springer next offseason. 

[Steve9347]

I'm disappointed in Soxtalk today, honestly.

24 year olds are not complete products. Nomar Mazara has immense, untapped upside. We gave up damn-near nothing to get him (a 23 year old putting up similar numbers in the minors as the 24 year old is putting up in the majors).

At the very worst, we've added a right fielder who fields like a dream and can do some damage at the bottom of our lineup and is a massive upgrade from what we had. At best, we just stole a young buck pre-breakout. 

Calling Walker our 6th best prospect is what it is - we're top heavy in that department. The guy is going to really have to kick things into gear to ever be a 1fWAR player in the bigs.

Zero risk and tons of reward potential. 

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

If the Sox are passing on Castellanos/Ozuna's pricetag, they sure as hell will not be in on guys like Betts/Springer next offseason. 

I don't know, Betts and Springer are better hitters and are good defenders.

[steveno89]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

No shit. Doesn't mean it's not what they should do. They should pay Betts and have an unbelievable offense through the first half of the decade while finding Mazara-like pitchers.

Another poster said it earlier, and it's resonating with me: "This rebuild will go as far as Giolito/Kopech/Cease/Lopez/Dunning takes us"

Sure we will make additions, but those are the players we need to be excellent to have a shot. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, Steve9347 said:

At the very worst, we've added a right fielder who fields like a dream

What the bleeping bleep did I just read? 

[bmags]

Just now, steveno89 said:

If the Sox are passing on Castellanos/Ozuna's pricetag, they sure as hell will not be in on guys like Betts/Springer next offseason. 

Well, as someone who would pass on Castellanos/Ozuna, I would say that's a logical fallacy that grades players on a perfect slope. I'd pay $36 million a year for Betts, but wouldn't pay $20 million a year for Castellanos, despite the idea that Castellanos being half as bad may not even be true (actually it probably is). But being able to add the marginal wins to a single position is super valuable. When you have a deep competitive team a lot of players are 2 WAR so to have a 6 WAR guy in one position it gives you an easier opportunity to stack the wins that get you to 94, 96, 98 elsewhere.

[bmags]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

What the bleeping bleep did I just read? 

He's saying that when we see him hit well, it's actually because we are dreaming.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

19 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Well first of all - if they need Springer next year then that means this trade was pretty crappy because Springer would take over this guy's position.

But if this trade works well, then it's created another clock - if Mazara bumps up to a 3-win player this year, great - we have exactly 2 shots with the guy before he walks as a free agent for an Ozuna-caliber deal. 

 They clearly need to bring in pitching, but the top 3 from this year are off the market already, and next year's options don't have the kind of top of the rotation guys who were available this year - only 2nd tier pitching, comparable to Ryu and Bumgarner. Paxton, Bauer, Odorizzi, Stroman.

So if they don't go out overpay for moderately good but questionable pitching this year, they're going to be asking themselves next year if they want to overpay for moderately good but questionable pitching next year. And if they don't want to spend that this year, and instead keep their payroll under control by going and signing Nova and someone else like that - why are they for guys with so little control?

Basically, they have to go add a high priced starting pitcher right now otherwise they're failing to do what you want them to do, and they're wasting the limited time with Mazara in the process.

I mean, Bauer is every bit as good as Zack Wheeler.

[steveno89]

1 minute ago, soxfan2014 said:

I don't know, Betts and Springer are better hitters and are good defenders.

My point is that the Sox are likely balking at asking prices for Ozuna/Castellanos. Betts/Springer's asking prices on the open market will be through the roof.

Grandal was a nice move, but we need way more if we are going to contend for the world series in 2021 as was the projection all along. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I mean, Bauer is every bit as good as Zack Wheeler.

So the best guy next year is as good as the #3 guy this year, and I said the "Top of the rotation guys who were available this year aren't there next year". Thank you.

[BackDoorBreach]

3 minutes ago, Steve9347 said:

I'm disappointed in Soxtalk today, honestly.

24 year olds are not complete products. Nomar Mazara has immense, untapped upside. We gave up damn-near nothing to get him (a 23 year old putting up similar numbers in the minors as the 24 year old is putting up in the majors).

At the very worst, we've added a right fielder who fields like a dream and can do some damage at the bottom of our lineup and is a massive upgrade from what we had. At best, we just stole a young buck pre-breakout. 

Calling Walker our 6th best prospect is what it is - we're top heavy in that department. The guy is going to really have to kick things into gear to ever be a 1fWAR player in the bigs.

Zero risk and tons of reward potential. 

This is pretty delusional and factually wrong.

[steveno89]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I mean, Bauer is every bit as good as Zack Wheeler.

If Bauer puts up a 4.0+ WAR 2020, expect him to be paid big time, agreed. 

 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

He's saying that when we see him hit well, it's actually because we are dreaming.

I think you're dreaming if you come up with that from a statement about the guys fielding.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

I think you're dreaming if you come up with that from a statement about the guys fielding.

it's obviously a joke.

[poppysox]

24 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Just remember, you said repeatedly how disappointed you'd be if the payroll wasn't $160 million. They're passing on better options to keep the payroll low, and they've already missed the 3 highest quality starting pitchers.

I have said repeatedly that I expected the WS to be open to spending $160 and still think that.  I don't expect them to pass up a bargain like Mazara in order to spend money.  We still have four high quality pitchers to acquire at a minimum.  We will see what the final number turns out to be.

[bmags]

If the white sox couldn't handle Sale, good luck with Bauer. Also by signing Boddy I'd imagine the Reds pony up to re-sign Bauer.

[oneofthemikes]

I started digging around a bit looking at the early career of Marcell Ozuna and Nomar Mazara (the hope being that maybe Menechino can help Mazara the way he did in the 5th year of Ozuna's career). Can someone smarter than me explain why the WAR values (specifically oWAR) are so much different between Ozuna's 2014 and Mazara's 2019?

2014 Ozuna (3.5 oWAR) - 269/317/455 with 23 HR and 41 BB

2019 Mazara (1.0 oWAR) - 268/318/469 with 19 HR and 28 BB (24 HR and 36 BB over a full season)

What am I missing? Sorry to derail the conversation, but it bothered me