20 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Dudes get hurt.  Dunning and Stiever will get their shot.  And Kopech will be in the minors until at least June next season, and counting on him for much of anything at this point is probably the wrong thing to do.  Adding a guy like Robby Ray, Stroman or Quintana, dudes that shouldn't break the bank or destroy the club if they end up sucking, would go a LONG ways in making the rotation deeper, more talented and more insulated.  

So start the year like this:  Giolito, Keuchel, Cease, FA (Ray/Stroman/Quintana), Lopez/Dunning/Rodon (doubt he's around)/other.

Then come june you have Giolito, Keuchel, Cease, FA above, and hopefully Kopech, with Lopez, Dunning, Stiever, Lambert all as back up options. 

In my opinion, those guys are too good to be viewed as just back up options.  Kopech, Dunning, and Stiever are all very good prospects.  All could be mid-rotation or better starters.  Signing a free agent and forcing one or more of those guys into the bullpen before giving them a legitimate look in the rotation (half season or more) seems like an inefficient use of resources.  If the team is willing to spend the money, they'd be better off giving whatever money they'd offer a free agent starter to George Springer.

If we don't pick up Encarnacion, Cishek or Gonzalez options, there should be more than enough money for Bauer especially if he still wants only 1 year deals.

26 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

In my opinion, those guys are too good to be viewed as just back up options.  Kopech, Dunning, and Stiever are all very good prospects.  All could be mid-rotation or better starters.  Signing a free agent and forcing one or more of those guys into the bullpen before giving them a legitimate look in the rotation (half season or more) seems like an inefficient use of resources.  If the team is willing to spend the money, they'd be better off giving whatever money they'd offer a free agent starter to George Springer.

I think you trade a couple of those guys. 

I've seen enough of Lopez and Rodon, Rodon is in Arb 3 and Lopez in Arb 1. Both are non-tender candidates. 

Without those two, Are you really going to give two rotation slots to kids? 

I'm not a huge fan of Cease these days as despite him throwing high 90s his fastball is very hittable. He's starting to remind me of Lopez. Too many walks, too hittable. I'd like to move him before his value craters. 

 

Edited August 13, 20205 yr by Jack Parkman

Dylan Bundy is the only player I have seen in my life who walked off the field in the middle of a play, when he should have been covering home no less. He's got to be a ticking time bomb mentally.

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think you trade a couple of those guys. 

I've seen enough of Lopez and Rodon, Rodon is in Arb 3 and Lopez in Arb 1. Both are non-tender candidates. 

Without those two, Are you really going to give two rotation slots to kids? 

I'm not a huge fan of Cease these days as despite him throwing high 90s his fastball is very hittable. He's starting to remind me of Lopez. Too many walks, too hittable. I'd like to move him before his value craters. 

 

Rodon I could see, but Lopez isn't going to be a non-tender in Arb1.

Idk how they track fastball carry, but that seems to be more important than velocity. 

Both Lopez and Cease have bad carry, and thus are more hittable. 

Edited August 13, 20205 yr by Jack Parkman

16 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Idk how they track fastball carry, but that seems to be more important than velocity. 

Both Lopez and Cease have bad carry, and thus are more hittable. 

Fastball command is more important than both and neither guy has that. Of the two I think Cease has a much better chance of getting to at least avg fastball command.  

7 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Fastball command is more important than both and neither guy has that. Of the two I think Cease has a much better chance of getting to at least avg fastball command.  

I don't, Cease's command is worse than Lopez's. 

Carry seems to be more important than you give it credit for. 

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't, Cease's command is worse than Lopez's. 

Carry seems to be more important than you give it credit for. 

oh is Lopez's command better (after 4 years in the majors)

6 minutes ago, bmags said:

oh is Lopez's command better (after 4 years in the majors)

It was better in 2018 than Cease's is right now. 

Cease has better breaking shit. 

I don't think Cease is ever going to throw enough strikes. I think his ceiling is Rich Harden. 

Edited August 13, 20205 yr by Jack Parkman

13 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't, Cease's command is worse than Lopez's. 

Carry seems to be more important than you give it credit for. 

Carry is fine but if it carries the ball over the heart of the plate or out of the strike zone it's useless.  Gotta locate it.

Rich Harden's best season was a 2.07 ERA.

1 hour ago, Perfect Vision said:

In my opinion, those guys are too good to be viewed as just back up options.  Kopech, Dunning, and Stiever are all very good prospects.  All could be mid-rotation or better starters.  Signing a free agent and forcing one or more of those guys into the bullpen before giving them a legitimate look in the rotation (half season or more) seems like an inefficient use of resources.  If the team is willing to spend the money, they'd be better off giving whatever money they'd offer a free agent starter to George Springer.

They'll get their chances if they're good enough.  Keep one spot open for Kopech. Dunning can fill in until June.  When Kopech comes back, chances are someone else is one the shelf by then.  Stiever hasn't thrown a pitch over A ball - I agree he's a really nice prospect, but I am not saving any MLB spots for him at the moment.  

I don't see why the Sox can't sign a Robby Ray or a Quintana and also take a run a legit RF.  

22 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Carry is fine but if it carries the ball over the heart of the plate or out of the strike zone it's useless.  Gotta locate it.

I'm not arguing about command being important, because it is. But carry is really important too because it affects the swing plane of the hitter. If a pitcher's fastball has elite carry it's harder for the hitter to square up, and the pitcher is more likely to get away with mistakes via pop up, foul off, or even straight whiff than someone without it. It affects where the hitter thinks the ball is going to be. 

Giolito is a good example. His command isn't the greatest but he can get away with mistakes more often because his fastball carry is elite. Hitters foul pitches off or straight up miss them. 

Fastball carry might be more important than command. 

Edited August 13, 20205 yr by Jack Parkman

I think Marcus Stroman and Jose Quintana are the most likely. They could trade for someone though. There are strong rumors that the signing team won't have to give up a pick in free agency for QO players. 

10 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm not arguing about command being important, because it is. But carry is really important too because it affects the swing plane of the hitter. If a pitcher's fastball has elite carry it's harder for the hitter to square up, and the pitcher is more likely to get away with mistakes via pop up, foul off, or even straight whiff than someone without it. It affects where the hitter thinks the ball is going to be. 

Giolito is a good example. His command isn't the greatest but he can get away with mistakes more often because his fastball carry is elite. Hitters foul pitches off or straight up miss them. 

Fastball carry might be more important than command. 

Fastballs on the black are also difficult to square up.  We'll just agree to disagree.

5 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Fastballs on the black are also difficult to square up.  We'll just agree to disagree.

No argument. 6 of one 1/2 dozen of the other. Both are important. IMO they're 1A and 1B. 

Next time Giolito and Foster pitch watch where the ball is and watch the path of the bat from hitters when they throw their fastballs. It's huge. I honestly think that carry is more important than velocity to a certain degree. 93-94 with 10 inches of carry is better than 97-98 with 8.5 inches of carry. 

Edited August 13, 20205 yr by Jack Parkman

42 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It was better in 2018 than Cease's is right now. 

Cease has better breaking shit. 

I don't think Cease is ever going to throw enough strikes. I think his ceiling is Rich Harden. 

Harden was awesome? He just couldn't stay healthy. If Rich Harden could stay healthy he would have been a star.

And I have no idea what you mean by carry. Cease has above average spin rates that he gets a bit on the side of still. His carry isn't bad, it just isn't exceptional but guess what? You don't need exceptional carry when you throw 99 MPH Jack. I feel like you read Fegans article and just completely misunderstood what was being said.

24 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

They'll get their chances if they're good enough.  Keep one spot open for Kopech. Dunning can fill in until June.  When Kopech comes back, chances are someone else is one the shelf by then.  Stiever hasn't thrown a pitch over A ball - I agree he's a really nice prospect, but I am not saving any MLB spots for him at the moment.  

I don't see why the Sox can't sign a Robby Ray or a Quintana and also take a run a legit RF.  

yeah I can't think of many examples of where a really good pitcher was actually blocked. They tend to find a way.

1 minute ago, bmags said:

yeah I can't think of many examples of where a really good pitcher was actually blocked. They tend to find a way.

Exactly.  Not like Sox are running into options issues with Dunning who was just added to the 40 man this offseason, and Stiever isn't even on the 40 man.  Saving rotation spots for big times IFs is a good way to punt 2021.  Sox can't punt 2021.  

The one guy I am somewhat OK flagging a spot for in Kopech come mid 2021 season, but at this point, I am certainly not counting on him and you need to have other reasonable options around in case that never comes to fruition.  I think, at this point, you pretty much have to sign a upper mid rotation SP this offseason (I really like Robby Ray), unless Lopez comes back and dominates for the rest of the season, which is HIGHLY doubtful at this juncture.  

7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

No argument. 6 of one 1/2 dozen of the other. Both are important. IMO they're 1A and 1B. 

Next time Giolito and Foster pitch watch where the ball is and watch the path of the bat from hitters when they throw their fastballs. It's huge. I honestly think that carry is more important than velocity to a certain degree. 93-94 with 10 inches of carry is better than 97-98 with 8.5 inches of carry. 

What is easier to teach Jack, above average to top tier spin rates or carry?

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

yeah I can't think of many examples of where a really good pitcher was actually blocked. They tend to find a way.

Yes usually.. Though I think the Dodgers are a good example year in and year out of guys being blocked but they still find a role.  Urias couldn't get starts.  Then May couldn't get starts. Now Gonsolin is some weird up and down guy (would be our #3).. 

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Harden was awesome? He just couldn't stay healthy. If Rich Harden could stay healthy he would have been a star.

And I have no idea what you mean by carry. Cease has above average spin rates that he gets a bit on the side of still. His carry isn't bad, it just isn't exceptional but guess what? You don't need exceptional carry when you throw 99 MPH Jack. I feel like you read Fegans article and just completely misunderstood what was being said.

I'll disagree with you here. Cease doesn't miss bats with his fastball like you think he should at 97mph. Neither did Lopez when he was healthy. Both had below average carry. 

My point is 99 with bad carry is still very hittable. 

At the same time, Giolito lost 1 mph on his fastball this year but is still generating tons of whiffs. He has elite carry. Watch the games, and the eye test verifies this. 

That's a trick question, since you can't have elite carry without top tier spin rates... but I also don't think you can teach top tier spin (although the Astros have cheated somehow to do it).

In one year already, Cease has taken his vertical drop from below average to above average. You saying that carry is more important than velocity is just nonsense though. 

Max Scherzer would like to have a conversation with you about that comment. Saying that carry is more important than Command; now that is even more batshit crazy. Command is the most important aspect of any fastball and it's not close.

I use vertical drop as opposed to carry, but they are the same thing.

11 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Harden was awesome? He just couldn't stay healthy. If Rich Harden could stay healthy he would have been a star.

And I have no idea what you mean by carry. Cease has above average spin rates that he gets a bit on the side of still. His carry isn't bad, it just isn't exceptional but guess what? You don't need exceptional carry when you throw 99 MPH Jack. I feel like you read Fegans article and just completely misunderstood what was being said.

I have seen the word "carry:" posted more times today than in the entire history of Soxtalk.