Conforto rejects QO, enters free agency

[Dick Allen]

11 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I know, right? These numbers were just "so hard to find," amirite?

Hernandez has the 2nd highest WAR among free agent 2B the last 2 seasons.

[Two-Gun Pete]

Just now, Dick Allen said:

Hernandez has the 2nd highest WAR among free agent 2B the last 2 seasons.

So you and Chicago White Sox are both going to give the 60 game 2020 season credence to rate a player? 

I don't. And if he was such a Golden God at the position, why didn’t anyone lose sleep about his option being declined?

I suspect that its because Hernandez is "just a guy" now, IOW, a ~2-ish WAR token. Good FOs can find cromulent ~2-ish WAR tokens at the league minimum. In turn, it enables an org to pursue higher-value FAs, because good organizations don't waste signifiant resources on tokens if they can avoid it.

[Chicago White Sox]

9 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

1. Copy/pasted from your previous post: 

..."However, from 2020 to 2021..."

"...Meanwhile, from 2017 to 2019 he had a wRC+ of 100...." 

Anyone can justify anything, if you cut up trends into nice segments. Hernandez was in a clear, straight-line decline of 19% over the 2017-2021 time frame, full stop.

And, if you want to "credit" Hernandez for having an awesome 1st half WRC+ of 96, you also have to admit that that came alongside a career anomaly in HR in the 1st half. The anomalous 1st half HR numbers made the 1st half WRC+ artificially inflated, and ripe for regression.

 

2. RH deserves TONS of disrespect for this move. The team needed someone to stand at 2B, but the LINEUP needed effectiveness vs RHP. Let's review the WRC+ splits vs RHP for some notable 2B from 2021:

Cesar Hernandez: 83

Eduardo Escobar: 98

Leury Garcia: 101

Danny Mendick: 77

We could also go over the WAR numbers, but suffice it to say that Cesar had a negative number while in Chicago.

See, if you're going to be fair, you can't just fall all over yourself to give RH plaudits at every turn. You ALSO have to give him critique when it is/was warranted. His TDL made the 2021 team WORSE, while fucking up the financial flexibility going forward.

The org would have been better off had they done nothing at the TDL. 

You are proof of how people can manipulate statistics and leverage hindsight to rationale any argument.  Hernandez had five straight seasons with a wRC+ of 100 or higher vs. RHP.  Yet you are saying the Sox should overreact to his 2021 splits with the Indians (which is the definition of a SSS) and assume he can no longer hit RHP?  That’s actually your position?

What I do love is that this move was somehow so egregious and yet you didn’t feel the need to complain at all when it first went down?  Just like this “the Sox were incapable of beating the Astros”, you really seem to love ripping everything in hindsight.   No one is arguing that Cesar was good with us (because he sucked), but no was predicting a massive fall-off in the coming months when he was sporting a 101 wRC+ at the time of trade.  And I’m aware of the flukey HRs as I called them out at the time.  The reality is the Hernandez deal was a low ceiling trade that didn’t work out.  If you want to rip Hahn for something, how about ripping him for the garbage farm system that forced him to trade from the major league roster to add Kimbrel and limited his ability to acquire other impact players at the deadline.  Cesar underperforming massively post acquisition wasn’t one of them.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

21 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I know, right? These numbers were just "so hard to find," amirite?

What numbers?  The ones that come with a time machine?  And for some reason the the 700 plate appearances prior to the trade don’t count because…reasons.  🤔

[caulfield12]

50 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

1. Copy/pasted from your previous post: 

..."However, from 2020 to 2021..."

"...Meanwhile, from 2017 to 2019 he had a wRC+ of 100...." 

Anyone can justify anything, if you cut up trends into nice segments. Hernandez was in a clear, straight-line decline of 19% over the 2017-2021 time frame, full stop.

And, if you want to "credit" Hernandez for having an awesome 1st half WRC+ of 96, you also have to admit that that came alongside a career anomaly in HR in the 1st half. The anomalous 1st half HR numbers made the 1st half WRC+ artificially inflated, and ripe for regression.

 

2. RH deserves TONS of disrespect for this move. The team needed someone to stand at 2B, but the LINEUP needed effectiveness vs RHP. Let's review the WRC+ splits vs RHP for some notable 2B from 2021:

Cesar Hernandez: 83

Eduardo Escobar: 98

Leury Garcia: 101

Danny Mendick: 77

We could also go over the WAR numbers, but suffice it to say that Cesar had a negative number while in Chicago.

See, if you're going to be fair, you can't just fall all over yourself to give RH plaudits at every turn. You ALSO have to give him critique when it is/was warranted. His TDL made the 2021 team WORSE, while fucking up the financial flexibility going forward.

The org would have been better off had they done nothing at the TDL. 

Would be interesting to see if there was any month to month defensive regression too…as he went from Gold Glove winner to indifferent/unfocused at best.

[caulfield12]

15 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Hernandez has the 2nd highest WAR among free agent 2B the last 2 seasons.

Unless you count all those guys like Seager, Baez, Story, etc., as 2B…but we clearly won’t be moving TA for anyone, not even Carlos Correa (who will get $275-325 million anyway.)

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

1. You are proof of how people can manipulate statistics and leverage hindsight to rationale any argument.  

2. Hernandez had five straight seasons with a wRC+ of 100 or higher vs. RHP.  Yet you are saying the Sox should overreact to his 2021 splits with the Indians (which is the definition of a SSS) and assume he can no longer hit RHP?  That’s actually your position?

3. What I do love is that this move was somehow so egregious and yet you didn’t feel the need to complain at all when it first went down?  

4. Just like this “the Sox were incapable of beating the Astros”, you really seem to love ripping everything in hindsight.

 

 5.No one is arguing that Cesar was good with us (because he sucked), but no was predicting a massive fall-off in the coming months when he was sporting a 101 wRC+ at the time of trade.  And I’m aware of the flukey HRs as I called them out at the time.  

6. If you want to rip Hahn for something, how about ripping him for the garbage farm system that forced him to trade from the major league roster to add Kimbrel and limited his ability to acquire other impact players at the deadline.  Cesar underperforming massively post acquisition wasn’t one of them.

I'll subdivide your post into chunks, because I believe you deserve fair answers to your post:

1. Wait, you were the one who tried to agglomorate his 2020 numbers with his 2021 numbers, without acknowledging that 2020's 60 game season was anomalous. If anyone is contorting numbers, it would be you.

2. And he was an 83 WRC+ hitter vs RHP in 2021, with a measurable overall decline. Had his overall numbers shown more stability, I might have been more comfortable sending a division enemy a piece.

3. Sorry, I was working and on the road a bit more at the TDL. Otherwise, I would have given RH more of a beating.

4. Between the trashtros superior talent, and superior coaching, yes. I doubted their ability to beat them. Add into the many players who were ripe for regression in the SOX roster, and the questions surrounding the recovery of the injured players, yes, I further doubted their ability to beat the trashtros. And when RH addressed the RF/2B/vs RHP holes with a closer and Hernandez, I further doubted their ability to beat Houston.

5. Yes, we've covered this. Hernandez was ripe for regression because his 1st half WRC+ was supported by his anomalous HR numbers. He was the textbook definition of someone who was about to fall down to earth, performance-wise.

6. Yes, I've ripped the Kimbrel trade, because no one has shown me how an expensive closer would have helped this team do anything about McCullers (and other RHP) from curbstomping them. Adding Hernandez was clearly the wrong move, for all the reasons we've discussed here.

[Two-Gun Pete]

9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Would be interesting to see if there was any month to month defensive regression too…as he went from Gold Glove winner to indifferent/unfocused at best.

I dont think it was indifference, so much as it was his decline at the dish cutting into his playing time, coupled with aging.

[Two-Gun Pete]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What numbers?  The ones that come with a time machine?  And for some reason the the 700 plate appearances prior to the trade don’t count because…reasons.  🤔

Yes, let's give the 60 game 2020 season as much weight as the 2021 season.

Dude was in a clear decline, and he wasn't going to replicate his 1st half numbers. It was bad and dumb to trade for him

 

[ron883]

1 hour ago, poppysox said:

Good pick...another defensive specialist so sought after around here.

Or ya know, we could find some players that can hit AND field. Cough cough, Conforto. 

[poppysox]

36 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Or ya know, we could find some players that can hit AND field. Cough cough, Conforto. 

Another NL slugger...what could go wrong?  As long as we can afford a top-tier 2nd baseman...a good backup catcher...a good RP or two and perhaps a Rodon type SP...go ahead and get cough, cough, Conforto for $100 million or so.  

[ron883]

4 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Another NL slugger...what could go wrong?  As long as we can afford a top-tier 2nd baseman...a good backup catcher...a good RP or two and perhaps a Rodon type SP...go ahead and get cough, cough, Conforto for $100 million or so.  

You realize Semien will cost more than Conforto? Where the hell are we getting the money to sign a backup catcher, 2 good RPs and a starter like Rodon in your scenario? 

[michelangelosmonkey]

5 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Another NL slugger...what could go wrong?  As long as we can afford a top-tier 2nd baseman...a good backup catcher...a good RP or two and perhaps a Rodon type SP...go ahead and get cough, cough, Conforto for $100 million or so.  

I think this is the point.  We will have a budget.  I think we drop $100 million + on a single contract this off season.   The question isn't "Is Conforto good...because he is...he would be fine addition to the team and I wouldn't b****.  But given we only get one...do you want Conforto in RF and Romy at 2b or do you want Vaughn in RF and Semien at 2b. That is an easy choice for me.  I also would not bet $1000 that Conforto will end up with a higher WAR in RF than Vaughn...but I'd happily bet $1,000 that Semien has a higher WAR than Romy.   I wouldn't mind getting in that time machine and undoing the Madrigal trade and then we could have confidently put money into Conforto but we are stuck with reality.  

[michelangelosmonkey]

3 minutes ago, ron883 said:

You realize Semien will cost more than Conforto? Where the hell are we getting the money to sign a backup catcher, 2 good RPs and a starter like Rodon in your scenario? 

What do you think Semien will cost?  I saw 6/$138 somewhere.   A top five payroll is $190...and Sox are at $156.  So let's say a $30 mill bump from that.  If we get Semien for $23 per, trade Kimbrell's $16 and offer Rodon 3/$56 you could sign a relief pitchers for $5.  It could work.  

[ron883]

Just now, michelangelosmonkey said:

What do you think Semien will cost?  I saw 6/$138 somewhere.   A top five payroll is $190...and Sox are at $156.  So let's say a $30 mill bump from that.  If we get Semien for $23 per, trade Kimbrell's $16 and offer Rodon 3/$56 you could sign a relief pitchers for $5.  It could work.  

Semien is an MVP caliber player than can play SS. He will get at least 25m+ annual IMO. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 30m annually. Conforto will be closer to 16m-20m annually, which leaves the Sox with more flexibility to fill other positions. It also gets a much needed left handed hitter in the lineup. 

[ron883]

16 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I think this is the point.  We will have a budget.  I think we drop $100 million + on a single contract this off season.   The question isn't "Is Conforto good...because he is...he would be fine addition to the team and I wouldn't b****.  But given we only get one...do you want Conforto in RF and Romy at 2b or do you want Vaughn in RF and Semien at 2b. That is an easy choice for me.  I also would not bet $1000 that Conforto will end up with a higher WAR in RF than Vaughn...but I'd happily bet $1,000 that Semien has a higher WAR than Romy.   I wouldn't mind getting in that time machine and undoing the Madrigal trade and then we could have confidently put money into Conforto but we are stuck with reality.  

It's not all about WAR. In the playoffs when you're facing the best pitching and every pitcher gets stretched to the limit, I don't want our outfield giving up free outs because it is atrociously bad in the corners. That's an absolute killer. Good pitching will beat good hitting in the playoffs. You need your defense to perform in those low scoring pitcher duels. You need your defense to limit the number of pitches your bullpen throws in those games. 

I'd be happy to make a wager that the Sox won't start the season with Vaughn/Sheets in RF. I think the front office sees the flaw in that plan. 

Edited November 14, 2021 by ron883

[michelangelosmonkey]

2 minutes ago, ron883 said:

It's not all about WAR. In the playoffs when you're facing the best pitching and every pitcher gets stretched to the limit, I don't want our outfield giving up free outs because it is atrociously bad in the corners. That's an absolute killer. Good pitching will beat good hitting in the playoffs. You need your defense to perform in those low scoring pitcher duels. You need your defense to limit the number of pitches your bullpen throws in those games. 

I'd be happy to make a wager that the Sox won't start the season with Vaughn/Sheets in RF. I think the front office sees the flaw in that plan. 

But in effect you are giving up free outs in the field or free outs at the plate.  Sanchez was a GG 2b and would never give up an out in the field but was an automatic out at the plate and he can't find a job.  All players strengths AND weaknesses will be magnified in the playoffs...or maybe it's just random because SSS.    I think you are overly simplifying a legitimate argument.  It's not Bad defense=bad player or good defense = good player.  If we say player 1 is a 5 offense and 5 defense, and player two is a 9 offense and a 2 defense...player two would be better.  I'm sure someone out there has done the analytics on it but I think for a year Vaughn in RF would be interesting.   As for the wager...well they already have Engel who I think will figure in a lot to RF.  It's not important for us to bet...but yes, I think they will spend more money at 2B this offseason than RF.  

[hi8is]

1 hour ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

agglomorate

Is hereby dubbed Word of the Day.

ag·glom·er·ate

verb

/əˈɡläməˌrāt/

1. collect or form into a mass or group.

[Balta1701]

13 minutes ago, ron883 said:

It's not all about WAR. In the playoffs when you're facing the best pitching and every pitcher gets stretched to the limit, I don't want our outfield giving up free outs because it is atrociously bad in the corners. That's an absolute killer. Good pitching will beat good hitting in the playoffs. You need your defense to perform in those low scoring pitcher duels. You need your defense to limit the number of pitches your bullpen throws in those games. 

I'd be happy to make a wager that the Sox won't start the season with Vaughn/Sheets in RF. I think the front office sees the flaw in that plan. 

I think quite literally the argument against all of that is "The 2021 playoffs". Outfield defense? Here's WS MVP Jorge Soler. Good pitching beats good hitting - who had the best pitching coming into the playoffs? Rank the ten teams - Braves had the 8th best regular season ERA out of the 10 playoff teams. 

[poppysox]

Well...I hope RH gets us some good players.  After all, his is the only opinion that really matters.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yes, let's give the 60 game 2020 season as much weight as the 2021 season.

Dude was in a clear decline, and he wasn't going to replicate his 1st half numbers. It was bad and dumb to trade for him

 

Who is giving it as much weight?  Combining his 2020 and 2021 seasons prior to the trade deadline puts his wRC+ at 105.  That’s his last 700 plate appearances.  Why do the 2020 at-bats not count at all?  That’s over a season worth of at-bats and it’s basically as good as he put up in any year outside of 2017.  It also happens to be his most recent years worth of at-bats, so I’m really struggling to understand why they aren’t relevant when saying a player is declining.

Look, I’m not trying to make this personal.  I enjoy your posts and your general point of view of things, but I fully disagree with your take here.  I just don’t see how anyone could say he was in massive decline and a fall-off was imminent.

[ron883]

12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think quite literally the argument against all of that is "The 2021 playoffs". Outfield defense? Here's WS MVP Jorge Soler. Good pitching beats good hitting - who had the best pitching coming into the playoffs? Rank the ten teams - Braves had the 8th best regular season ERA out of the 10 playoff teams. 

It's not like the Dodgers or Astros had any major injuries to their pitching staff when they played the Braves. Let's totally ignore all context and just look at regular season stats. 

Edited November 14, 2021 by ron883

[hi8is]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Who is giving it as much weight?  Combining his 2020 and 2021 seasons prior to the trade deadline puts his wRC+ at 105.  That’s his last 700 plate appearances.  Why do the 2020 at-bats not count at all?  That’s over a season worth of at-bats and it’s basically as good as he put up in any year outside of 2017.  It also happens to be his most recent years worth of at-bats, so I’m really struggling to understand why they aren’t relevant when saying a player is declining.

Look, I’m not trying to make this personal.  I enjoy your posts and your general point of view of things, but I fully disagree with your take here.  I just don’t see how anyone could say he was in massive decline and a fall-off was imminent.

You didn’t use the Word of the Day… as such, you have failed.

[Chicago White Sox]

45 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I think this is the point.  We will have a budget.  I think we drop $100 million + on a single contract this off season.   The question isn't "Is Conforto good...because he is...he would be fine addition to the team and I wouldn't b****.  But given we only get one...do you want Conforto in RF and Romy at 2b or do you want Vaughn in RF and Semien at 2b. That is an easy choice for me.  I also would not bet $1000 that Conforto will end up with a higher WAR in RF than Vaughn...but I'd happily bet $1,000 that Semien has a higher WAR than Romy.   I wouldn't mind getting in that time machine and undoing the Madrigal trade and then we could have confidently put money into Conforto but we are stuck with reality.  

What is your expectations for Conferto next year exactly?

[Dick Allen]

19 minutes ago, ron883 said:

It's not like the Dodgers or Astros had any major injuries to their pitching staff when they played the Braves. Let's totally ignore all context and just look at regular season stats. 

Neither Lynn or Rodon were 100 %. That's 2 of the 3 losses.