November 13, 20214 yr 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said: While I agree in part, didn’t you point out correctly yesterday that defensive metrics over that short of a timespan aren’t likely to be predictive of future performance? They aren’t predictive, but rather simply point out just how bad they were in a very small sample. What is predictive is the fact that neither has the speed or athleticism to ever be an average RF. Sheets is a lumbering 6’5”, 230 pounds and Vaughn is straight up too slow. I think Andrew could possibly work in LF because he seems to get all the balls hit to him, but range will always be a problem and I don’t need advanced metrics to tell me otherwise.
November 13, 20214 yr 21 minutes ago, ron883 said: I don't think the pitching staff would appreciate having that outfield behind them. I don't care how good the offense is - giving up extra outs is never a good idea. Hayward is available.
November 13, 20214 yr 25 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: They aren’t predictive, but rather simply point out just how bad they were in a very small sample. What is predictive is the fact that neither has the speed or athleticism to ever be an average RF. Sheets is a lumbering 6’5”, 230 pounds and Vaughn is straight up too slow. I think Andrew could possibly work in LF because he seems to get all the balls hit to him, but range will always be a problem and I don’t need advanced metrics to tell me otherwise. I'm not sure how to properly value these things. Firstly I think Vaughn, Sheets and Jiminez are professional athletes under 25 and they can get better. And while I respect defense...you get to chose an outfield (in their prime): 1) Manny Ramirez, Greg Luzinski and Ken Griffey Jr or 2) Paul Blair, Max Kepler and Engel. Don't you win more with one than two? Bad defense doesn't matter if the offense is great, right? Derrick Jeter was a terrible defensive SS but went to a million all star games. Andrelton Simmons has had some of the greatest defensive years ever...would you trade Tim Anderson for him? Yes it was clownish watching Manny in Boston's outfield all those years while he was clubbing us over the head with his bat. I understand it would be nice to have someone good at both...but if we spend our big money on one player...isn't Semien's plus defensive and 40 homers at 2b way more valuable than a guy that will save some defensive runs in RF?
November 13, 20214 yr 5 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said: I'm not sure how to properly value these things. Firstly I think Vaughn, Sheets and Jiminez are professional athletes under 25 and they can get better. And while I respect defense...you get to chose an outfield (in their prime): 1) Manny Ramirez, Greg Luzinski and Ken Griffey Jr or 2) Paul Blair, Max Kepler and Engel. Don't you win more with one than two? Bad defense doesn't matter if the offense is great, right? Derrick Jeter was a terrible defensive SS but went to a million all star games. Andrelton Simmons has had some of the greatest defensive years ever...would you trade Tim Anderson for him? Yes it was clownish watching Manny in Boston's outfield all those years while he was clubbing us over the head with his bat. I understand it would be nice to have someone good at both...but if we spend our big money on one player...isn't Semien's plus defensive and 40 homers at 2b way more valuable than a guy that will save some defensive runs in RF? A run saved is equal to a run created, so defense always matter. If you throw a guy out of position and he sucks defensively, then it will negate a chunk of the offensive value he provides. And this stuff isn’t linear. An outfield can typically hide one bad defensive player, but surround Robert with weakness on both sides and suddenly you have a legit problem.
November 13, 20214 yr 1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said: A run saved is equal to a run created, so defense always matter. If you throw a guy out of position and he sucks defensively, then it will negate a chunk of the offensive value he provides. And this stuff isn’t linear. An outfield can typically hide one bad defensive player, but surround Robert with weakness on both sides and suddenly you have a legit problem. Accept he is going to create more runs then he is going to cost almost always. If an OF can just catch every ball he gets to and is a good hitter it will way outweigh any perceived shortcomings. How many balls are actually even hit to an outfielder a game? Sometimes none to a specific position. And you limit this liability by replacing any suspect of with a defensive replacement after their last at bat or after 7th while winning. Also Eloy seems to have made a commitment to his Defensive and seems to be improving. Also our home park is friendly to range challenged outfielders. Our K rich pitching staff limits flyballs. The trio of eloy/vaughn/sheets is not a permanent problem as 1b could open up in the near future and you could trade one AFTER their trade value is at a peak not selling low as we would now.
November 13, 20214 yr 29 minutes ago, turnin' two said: I'm a big fan of that Heyward interaction. We can either have Jason Heyward or Gavin Sheets in RF. No other options. Pick your poison!
November 13, 20214 yr 1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said: A run saved is equal to a run created, so defense always matter. If you throw a guy out of position and he sucks defensively, then it will negate a chunk of the offensive value he provides. And this stuff isn’t linear. An outfield can typically hide one bad defensive player, but surround Robert with weakness on both sides and suddenly you have a legit problem. So the question is...do Eloy and Vaughn create more runs offensively than they subtract defensively. I think they will both be elite hitters and subpar defenders....Conforto has a negative dWar every year of his career. If defensive is so important why pay him $100 million? Are we certain going forward he will outhit Vaughn? OK he's lefty but elite right handed hitters HAVE to be good against right handed pitchers too or they can't put up .900 OPS. Manny Ramirez was one of the worst defenders of all time and yet managed to put up an average 5 WAR over a ten year period. You state conclusively that "an outfield can hide one bad defensive player..." but If you could replicate Manny Ramirez in RF and LF...don't you do it and let Robert just try to catch everything? Especially if by having those stone gloves in RF and LF you can add 40 homers at 2b?
November 13, 20214 yr Just now, michelangelosmonkey said: So the question is...do Eloy and Vaughn create more runs offensively than they subtract defensively. I think they will both be elite hitters and subpar defenders....Conforto has a negative dWar every year of his career. If defensive is so important why pay him $100 million? Are we certain going forward he will outhit Vaughn? OK he's lefty but elite right handed hitters HAVE to be good against right handed pitchers too or they can't put up .900 OPS. Manny Ramirez was one of the worst defenders of all time and yet managed to put up an average 5 WAR over a ten year period. You state conclusively that "an outfield can hide one bad defensive player..." but If you could replicate Manny Ramirez in RF and LF...don't you do it and let Robert just try to catch everything? Especially if by having those stone gloves in RF and LF you can add 40 homers at 2b? All Eloy and Vaughn have to do is hit like prime Manny Ramirez and the Sox are good to go. Sounds easy enough.
November 13, 20214 yr 1 minute ago, kleedawg said: Accept he is going to create more runs then he is going to cost almost always. If an OF can just catch every ball he gets to and is a good hitter it will way outweigh any perceived shortcomings. How many balls are actually even hit to an outfielder a game? Sometimes none to a specific position. And you limit this liability by replacing any suspect of with a defensive replacement after their last at bat or after 7th while winning. Also Eloy seems to have made a commitment to his Defensive and seems to be improving. Also our home park is friendly to range challenged outfielders. Our K rich pitching staff limits flyballs. The trio of eloy/vaughn/sheets is not a permanent problem as 1b could open up in the near future and you could trade one AFTER their trade value is at a peak not selling low as we would now. Yes and we do have actual replacement outfielders (all the Cubans) in the system...we just need a two year fix and having Eloy and Vaugh hitting 75 homers and letting a few fly balls drop is ok
November 13, 20214 yr 1 minute ago, ron883 said: All Eloy and Vaughn have to do is hit like prime Manny Ramirez and the Sox are good to go. Sounds easy enough. You don't have to be a dick about it. I only use Manny as an example. I think it is entirely possible that in a full healthy year Jiminez and Vaughn can put up a combined .875 OPS. That's a LOT of offensive making up for a few missed fly balls.
November 13, 20214 yr 10 minutes ago, ron883 said: We can either have Jason Heyward or Gavin Sheets in RF. No other options. Pick your poison! Sheets. All day.
November 13, 20214 yr 4 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said: You don't have to be a dick about it. I only use Manny as an example. I think it is entirely possible that in a full healthy year Jiminez and Vaughn can put up a combined .875 OPS. That's a LOT of offensive making up for a few missed fly balls. A combined .875 OPS is a lot to ask for. It also ignores all the added stress the outfield puts on the pitchers in the regular season and in the postseason. Good pitching beats good hitting, and I don't want this OF giving any extra outs in the playoffs. Your pitching staff gets pushed to the absolute limit in the playoffs. Those extra outs are brutal.
November 13, 20214 yr 10 minutes ago, ron883 said: All Eloy and Vaughn have to do is hit like prime Manny Ramirez and the Sox are good to go. Sounds easy enough. Probably won't hit that well, BUT they will field better then Manny so there is acyually ground in between.
November 13, 20214 yr 14 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said: So the question is...do Eloy and Vaughn create more runs offensively than they subtract defensively. I think they will both be elite hitters and subpar defenders....Conforto has a negative dWar every year of his career. If defensive is so important why pay him $100 million? Are we certain going forward he will outhit Vaughn? OK he's lefty but elite right handed hitters HAVE to be good against right handed pitchers too or they can't put up .900 OPS. Manny Ramirez was one of the worst defenders of all time and yet managed to put up an average 5 WAR over a ten year period. You state conclusively that "an outfield can hide one bad defensive player..." but If you could replicate Manny Ramirez in RF and LF...don't you do it and let Robert just try to catch everything? Especially if by having those stone gloves in RF and LF you can add 40 homers at 2b? No, that is not the question. Both guys will create more runs than they will cost us, but the question is whether there is a LF/RF pairing that will provide more overall value. If half of Vaughn’s hitting value is eliminated by shitty RF defense, he’s goes from being a special player to a somewhat ordinary guy. And yes, if I can have two Hall of Fame hitters in the corners then I’ll sacrifice some defense, but that’s not a practical example and you’d still be better off just moving one of them to DH. As for Conforto, what are you basing this on? In RF he’s been graded as average or slightly better by UZR, DRS, & OAA prior to the 2021 season in which he was injured. If you’re looking at Fangraphs than his dWAR is impacted by his CF and defense and a positional adjustment when in the corners. Regardless, scouting reports have him as an average defensive outfielder and that’s significantly better than what we’ll get from Vaughn or Sheets.
November 13, 20214 yr 27 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said: Yes and we do have actual replacement outfielders (all the Cubans) in the system...we just need a two year fix and having Eloy and Vaugh hitting 75 homers and letting a few fly balls drop is ok Cespedes did nothing to warrant any long-term planning around and Colas isn’t even part of the organization yet. They should not even enter the equation at this point.
November 13, 20214 yr 26 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said: You don't have to be a dick about it. I only use Manny as an example. I think it is entirely possible that in a full healthy year Jiminez and Vaughn can put up a combined .875 OPS. That's a LOT of offensive making up for a few missed fly balls. It’s not just a few missed fly balls. It’s a lack of range that allows for more hits falling while also allowing base runners to grab extra bases more frequently. No one is saying that will make these guys negative value players, but it’s optimization and will cap the value these guys can provide.
November 13, 20214 yr It's funny, Conforto doesn't have very good advanced defensive metrics, yet you would think he is a possible savior.
November 13, 20214 yr 31 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: It’s not just a few missed fly balls. It’s a lack of range that allows for more hits falling while also allowing base runners to grab extra bases more frequently. No one is saying that will make these guys negative value players, but it’s optimization and will cap the value these guys can provide. Yes and my point is you can build around offense or defense. Engel has elite defense and speed...he was hurt this past year...if we want defense first and save money for Semiens...why not just him instead of $100 million to Conforto? Or you could just use Vaughn and deal with his defensive learning curve.
November 13, 20214 yr 25 minutes ago, Dick Allen said: It's funny, Conforto doesn't have very good advanced defensive metrics, yet you would think he is a possible savior. The guy is an annual 4 WAR player. He's also being compared to Sheets and Vaughn defensively.
November 13, 20214 yr 4 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said: Yes and my point is you can build around offense or defense. Engel has elite defense and speed...he was hurt this past year...if we want defense first and save money for Semiens...why not just him instead of $100 million to Conforto? Or you could just use Vaughn and deal with his defensive learning curve. @bmags thoughts?
November 13, 20214 yr Author 1 minute ago, ron883 said: @bmags thoughts? Sure I like semien. I don’t really understand these weird binaries people are setting up to win arguments. I just think Conforto is a good player that balances our lineup and plays good defense and sheets could play DH. If we want to sign an MVP type 2b that is also nice.
November 13, 20214 yr 47 minutes ago, Dick Allen said: It's funny, Conforto doesn't have very good advanced defensive metrics, yet you would think he is a possible savior. People want Conforto because he’s elite against RHP and would provide much needed balance to the lineup. These people also recognize his average defense would be a massive upgrade over Vaughn and Sheets in RF. No one is arguing he’s some defensive wizard.
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