24 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

There won’t be an agreement with a lower luxury tax than it is now. The number will go up, not down. 

The White Sox are $13 million below the tax line right now. $16 million was with the tiny increase the owners wanted.

8 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

If we're going to make a trade, let's not trade Andrew Vaughn please.  I'd prefer to be good for the next 5-6 years, not classic White Sox this thing into 1-2 year window. 

While I agree with your hopes for a longer window, they've kinda already started this process to "White Sox it up."

With:

The way they handled Kopech and Crochet,

The super-awesome strategic and tactical gem to trade for an old and expensive closer they didn't need,

The awesome gift of a league minimum 2B across town, without a replacement on hand, 

The awesome assembly of DH types all over the field, 

The pending aging curves for Abreu/Grandal/Hendriks/Keuchel/Lynn, 

The fast approaching departures of TA and Giolito,

The 30th ranked MiLB system, and 

The way some of the ALC foes are building themselves up, I ask:

 

Do you really see a 5-6 year window here? I'm not too sure, unless some youngsters come up from said 30th ranked MiLB system and surprise us. We'll have to see.

But for the next 1-2 seasons, I feel pretty confident in this roster. Beyond that? Who knows?

Edited February 11, 20224 yr by Two-Gun Pete

The Sox are in win now mode but have holes to fill. While we all agree we could/should improve the roster through free agent signings, I doubt it will happen. If we target players in trade, we need assets to exchange and Vaughn would be attractive to many teams because of his bat and his contract. The reality is there is no where for him to play here regularly in 2022 except as a weak side platoon RF'r (w/Sheets) and back-up LF'r to Jimenez. He could also be expected to DH on occasion. Personally, I'd rather move Jimenez but he won't return as much as Vaughn due their contracts. 

12 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I only now realize this because Manfred had to lie today. The owners’ proposal turns the luxury tax into something much closer to a hard cap with bigger penalties. If something like the owners’ proposal passes, the White Sox will have only about $16 million to spend next year. If they spend more than that, it would cost them at least a third round draft pick, along with a financial penalty. If they were to do something like Conforto and Rodon, it could certainly cost them a second round pick.

1) I said trade away Kimbrel.  Which means that number is over $30M. (yes, I know you don't think the Sox can trade Kimbrel for anything).

2) the luxury tax figure is almost certainly going to increase.  

3) Conforto + scrapheap 2B and SP should cost around $30M AAV, give or take a couple million. 

Edited February 11, 20224 yr by ChiSox59

This Sucks for Let’s Fucking Go!!!!

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

1) I said trade away Kimbrel.  Which means that number is over $30M. (yes, I know you don't think the Sox can trade Kimbrel for anything).

2) the luxury tax figure is almost certainly going to increase.  

3) Conforto + scrapheap 2B and SP should cost around $30M AAV, give or take a couple million. 

$16 million in space is including the luxury tax increase the owners proposed ($210 to $213 million). To get to $30 million in space, the luxury tax would have to go up to about $227 million.

In terms of Kimbrel, I know you and I disagree on his value, but I would also note now that if this thing ends any time soon, everyone is going to have to sign in like 3 days to get started for spring training. That’s what happened in 1995 - a huge surge in signings the couple days right after the legal ruling ended the strike. Unless they have a trade already set up during this dead period, getting a complicated series of moves done involving at least one other team before Conforto takes the best deal on the table will be extra tough.

 

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

$16 million in space is including the luxury tax increase the owners proposed ($210 to $213 million). To get to $30 million in space, the luxury tax would have to go up to about $227 million.

In terms of Kimbrel, I know you and I disagree on his value, but I would also note now that if this thing ends any time soon, everyone is going to have to sign in like 3 days to get started for spring training. That’s what happened in 1995 - a huge surge in signings the couple days right after the legal ruling ended the strike. Unless they have a trade already set up during this dead period, getting a complicated series of moves done involving at least one other team before Conforto takes the best deal on the table will be extra tough.

 

I feel like if trades were set up, we'd have gotten some leaks

2 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I feel like if trades were set up, we'd have gotten some leaks

Not unless it was from the receiving team.  Sox media is weak when it comes to leaks.

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Not unless it was from the receiving team.  Sox media is weak when it comes to leaks.

Outside of "Jeff McNeil is available" a month and a half ago, we haven't gotten wind of really anything in terms of trades from any team in the league leaked to anyone. That could suggest that teams are not doing much in the way of talking trades right now, unless every team has somehow clamped down on leaks and that seems like it would would be tough as scouts and legal offices would still be involved. Not definitive, but if that were the case and teams haven't worked on trades much during this, it will be exceedingly tough to pull off a trade when all 30 teams are busy trying to sign like 5 major league free agents each in 48 hours to fill out their rosters.

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Outside of "Jeff McNeil is available" a month and a half ago, we haven't gotten wind of really anything in terms of trades from any team in the league leaked to anyone. That could suggest that teams are not doing much in the way of talking trades right now, unless every team has somehow clamped down on leaks and that seems like it would would be tough as scouts and legal offices would still be involved. Not definitive, but if that were the case and teams haven't worked on trades much during this, it will be exceedingly tough to pull off a trade when all 30 teams are busy trying to sign like 5 major league free agents each in 48 hours to fill out their rosters.

How insane and wonderful would a 3/4 day GM meetings be right after the lockout. It honestly sucks we haven't had Winter Meetings since 2019.

Do you guys think there is any chance the wsox bring back rodon? I really liked watching him

11 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Do you guys think there is any chance the wsox bring back rodon? I really liked watching him

With their payroll constraints and other needs I just can't see any way to make it work.

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

$16 million in space is including the luxury tax increase the owners proposed ($210 to $213 million). To get to $30 million in space, the luxury tax would have to go up to about $227 million.

In terms of Kimbrel, I know you and I disagree on his value, but I would also note now that if this thing ends any time soon, everyone is going to have to sign in like 3 days to get started for spring training. That’s what happened in 1995 - a huge surge in signings the couple days right after the legal ruling ended the strike. Unless they have a trade already set up during this dead period, getting a complicated series of moves done involving at least one other team before Conforto takes the best deal on the table will be extra tough.

 

I don't really think Kimbrel has much value, but I think they can get a Heuer type pre-arb reliever back for him while dumping the $.  That is fine with me and creates $16M (essentially pays for Conforto in 22).   $15-18M for Conforto + $12-15M combined for stopgap 2B and vet SP to compete for 5 spot = $30M.  Current payroll is ~$170M ($154M if you assume Kimbrel is gone), so that keeps them under the current $210M threshold with plenty to spare, no? 

Even if you want to assume they can't trade Kimbrel, analysis still works by not signing the vet SP .  Would be nice to have, but honestly I don't see that guy getting the 5 spot over Keuchel anyway. $170M + $15-18M for Conforto, + $5-$10M for 2B = payroll in $190-200M range.  

Edited February 11, 20224 yr by ChiSox59

22 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I don't really think Kimbrel has much value, but I think they can get a Heuer type pre-arb reliever back for him while dumping the $.  That is fine with me and creates $16M (essentially pays for Conforto in 22).   $15-18M for Conforto + $12-15M combined for stopgap 2B and vet SP to compete for 5 spot = $30M.  Current payroll is ~$170M ($154M if you assume Kimbrel is gone), so that keeps them under the current $210M threshold with plenty to spare, no? 

Even if you want to assume they can't trade Kimbrel, analysis still works by not signing the vet SP .  Would be nice to have, but honestly I don't see that guy getting the 5 spot over Keuchel anyway. $270M + $15-18M for Conforto, + $5-$10M for 2B = payroll in $190-200M range.  

No, it doesn't. You don't get to count up to a $210 million threshold for this - you have to throw in benefits and the fact that the luxury tax salary is not the same thing as the guy's salary that year for all the pre-FA contracts the Sox signed. 

Spotrac throws in an estimate of a couple minimum salary guys and a couple guesses on the arb numbers and comes in at under $16 million in space available total - and that doesn't count things like "the trade deadline" and "we had to call up extra guys because our team had lots of injuries this year". To their eyes, the White Sox's luxury tax number right now is $194 million, and I think you should give a couple extra million of a cushion for "whatever". If the tax goes up by $4 million (the owners proposal), the White Sox still have under $20 million to spend unless they can move a salary. If they spend $30 million, either the tax level needs to go up to nearly $230 million next year, or they need to move a contract.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/payroll/

34 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Do you guys think there is any chance the wsox bring back rodon? I really liked watching him

Yes, I predict this happens.

15 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

1. No, it doesn't. You don't get to count up to a $210 million threshold for this - you have to throw in benefits and the fact that the luxury tax salary is not the same thing as the guy's salary that year for all the pre-FA contracts the Sox signed. 

2. Spotrac throws in an estimate of a couple minimum salary guys and a couple guesses on the arb numbers and comes in at under $16 million in space available total -

3. and that doesn't count things like "the trade deadline" and "we had to call up extra guys because our team had lots of injuries this year".

4. To their eyes, the White Sox's luxury tax number right now is $194 million, and I think you should give a couple extra million of a cushion for "whatever".

 

5. If the tax goes up by $4 million (the owners proposal), the White Sox still have under $20 million to spend unless they can move a salary. If they spend $30 million, either the tax level needs to go up to nearly $230 million next year, or they need to move a contract.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/payroll/

1. This is correct. The players salary does not = luxury tax salary, as it does not include bennies.

2. Which is why it was dumb to add an expensive piece they didn't need, while giving up a cheap piece that would have allowed them to do other things in FA this season.

3. Again, you are correct. To those hoping for a big splash this offseason, sure, perhaps the SOX could do so, but then they could be handcuffed at the TDL. (Although, I kinda like the idea of this FO being unable to do anything at the TDL, given their craptacular history of failure at the TDL.)

4. Agreed.

5. And this is why I dont see a "multiple championships window." If you haven't even been to the LCS, and you already have to think about contract-dumping, and you'll have 10 of your 26 man > 30 years old by year end, and your #1 SP is leaving in 2 years, and you've got the #30 MiLB system, well....

...let's just say that it'll be interesting to see what they do to try to remain competitive. 

42 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

No, it doesn't. You don't get to count up to a $210 million threshold for this - you have to throw in benefits and the fact that the luxury tax salary is not the same thing as the guy's salary that year for all the pre-FA contracts the Sox signed. 

Spotrac throws in an estimate of a couple minimum salary guys and a couple guesses on the arb numbers and comes in at under $16 million in space available total - and that doesn't count things like "the trade deadline" and "we had to call up extra guys because our team had lots of injuries this year". To their eyes, the White Sox's luxury tax number right now is $194 million, and I think you should give a couple extra million of a cushion for "whatever". If the tax goes up by $4 million (the owners proposal), the White Sox still have under $20 million to spend unless they can move a salary. If they spend $30 million, either the tax level needs to go up to nearly $230 million next year, or they need to move a contract.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/payroll/

Fair enough.  If you operate under the assumption Kimbrel is immovable and the luxury tax will move by $3M, Conforto will be a challenge.  I just operate under hte assumption that Kimbrel is movable, making your $194M estimate more like $180M, which gives plenty of room to sign him.  I also don't see the PA agreeing to a measly $3M luxury tax increase.  

I guess we'll all  find out soon enough.....hopefully.  

9 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Fair enough.  If you operate under the assumption Kimbrel is immovable and the luxury tax will move by $3M, Conforto will be a challenge.  I just operate under hte assumption that Kimbrel is movable, making your $194M estimate more like $180M, which gives plenty of room to sign him.  I also don't see the PA agreeing to a measly $3M luxury tax increase.  

I guess we'll all  find out soon enough.....hopefully.  

Yeah $4 million seems low, but how much the owners will move I can’t say. Either way, this is going to be really complicated - once the lockout ends, most guys like Conforto will be signing within 24-48 hours based on the 1995 precedent. That will make trades so tough.

Here's the thing.  If we are going to assume the worst about owners and teams here, you can damned well bet they have been lining a lot of these things up behind the scenes, especially trades where you don't need to negotiate with players to be able to get something done.

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Here's the thing.  If we are going to assume the worst about owners and teams here, you can damned well bet they have been lining a lot of these things up behind the scenes, especially trades where you don't need to negotiate with players to be able to get something done.

Except, as you pointed out this morning...nothing like that has leaked. Not just in Chicago, league-wide, at a time when anything reported on anyone will probably trend on twitter because there's nothing else to report.

41 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Except, as you pointed out this morning...nothing like that has leaked. Not just in Chicago, league-wide, at a time when anything reported on anyone will probably trend on twitter because there's nothing else to report.

There have been a good number of articles posted by beat writers about what a team is planning to try to do once the lockout ends. Unfortunately, the Sox haven’t leaked anything.

4 hours ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Do you guys think there is any chance the wsox bring back rodon? I really liked watching him

I think that ship sailed the moment the Sox didn't offer him a qualifying offer. If the Sox wanted Rodon back, they would have offered it to him and either hoped he would accept or negotiate a long-term deal based on that starting point.

Kopech is clearly slated to take his rotation spot and I think they'll sign someone cheaper as a swingman type for additional starter depth.

59 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Except, as you pointed out this morning...nothing like that has leaked. Not just in Chicago, league-wide, at a time when anything reported on anyone will probably trend on twitter because there's nothing else to report.

Why would teams be leaking that they were talking to each other illegally?

4 hours ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Do you guys think there is any chance the wsox bring back rodon? I really liked watching him

I think we make a solid effort and have an edge in case of ties.

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Why would teams be leaking that they were talking to each other illegally?

Right...they're not supposed to be but I wouldn't be surprised if they are. Nothing is going to leak.