Has anyone noted that Cody Bellinger produced more fWAR than Robert over the past 2 years? Narrow win for Robert in 23, bigger margin for Bellinger in 24.

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Has anyone noted that Cody Bellinger produced more fWAR than Robert over the past 2 years? Narrow win for Robert in 23, bigger margin for Bellinger in 24.

All I’ve been told is that Robert has MVP upside even though he’s never been close to winning one and Bellinger has all star upside even though he’s actually won an MVP and got closer to winning another in 2023 than Robert ever has. But yea, I’m sure somebody would pay Robert a lot more than 3/$80M this winter if he were a free agent lol

10 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Has anyone noted that Cody Bellinger produced more fWAR than Robert over the past 2 years? Narrow win for Robert in 23, bigger margin for Bellinger in 24.

Your point being what?

18 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Your point being what?

I assume @Balta1701 was referring to the fact that Bellinger was just salary dumped by the Cubs, even though he has outperformed Robert over the past two years.  Basically inferring that Robert probably doesn’t have as much trade value as people are thinking.

The Yankees now have Bellinger for either 1/$25 or 2/$50 with the cash the Cubs included.

However, Robert is a bit cheaper at either 1/$17, 2/$37, or 3/$55.

Edited December 20, 20241 yr by WhiteSox2023

8 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

All I’ve been told is that Robert has MVP upside even though he’s never been close to winning one and Bellinger has all star upside even though he’s actually won an MVP and got closer to winning another in 2023 than Robert ever has. But yea, I’m sure somebody would pay Robert a lot more than 3/$80M this winter if he were a free agent lol

This is exactly what I’m talking about.  You constantly find a single data point, ignore all context, and use it to aid your extremely biased positions.  Bellinger came in 10th place in NL MVP voting in 2023…Robert came in 12 place in AL MVP voting that same year.  There is basically no difference in those results.  Additionally, Robert played for a terrible, 61 win team, whereas Bellinger played for a team that was basically in playoff contention until the end of the season.  That makes a huge difference when it comes to MVP voting, but again, something you conveniently leave off the table because it doesn’t support your views.

8 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

All I’ve been told is that Robert has MVP upside even though he’s never been close to winning one and Bellinger has all star upside even though he’s actually won an MVP and got closer to winning another in 2023 than Robert ever has. But yea, I’m sure somebody would pay Robert a lot more than 3/$80M this winter if he were a free agent lol

Because despite his flaws and injury risk, Robert’s ceiling is still incredibly higher than Bellinger’s, and that’s enticing.

And it’s not like some Jared Mitchell or Courtney Hawkins scenario where it’s just theoretical upside. We’ve actually seen it from Robert very recently, on a god awful team no less, which is why I don’t love the MVP argument. There’s way too much team context that goes into it.

10 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I assume @Balta1701 was referring to the fact that Bellinger was just salary dumped by the Cubs, even though he has outperformed Robert over the past two years.  Basically inferring that Robert probably doesn’t have as much trade value as people are thinking.

The Yankees now have Bellinger for either 1/$25 or 2/$50 with the cash the Cubs included.

However, Robert is a bit cheaper at either 1/$17, 2/$37, or 3/$55.

Arbitrarily picking the last two seasons is what I’m talking about.  Like why not go back to 2020 when Luis first came up?  Robert put up 7.1 fWAR from 2020 to 2022, while Bellinger put up 2.1 fWAR.  That’s 3.4x the production despite ~20% less plate appearances.  But hey, if we exclude those years and anchor off the 2024 season, we can craft a much better anti-Robert, pro Bellinger narrative.

And by the way, Bellinger got his current contract after a really strong 2023 season.  While he wasn’t bad last year, he regressed tremendously and he was arguably not worth his $25M salary as a 2 to 2.5 win player.  If he returns to his 2023 form, he’d have surplus value and would likely opt out of his final year of the contract.  The reality though is that 2023 looks like an outlier for him and the market has reacted accordingly.  Not sure what any of this has to do with Luis Robert though.

26 minutes ago, Snopek said:

Because despite his flaws and injury risk, Robert’s ceiling is still incredibly higher than Bellinger’s, and that’s enticing.

And it’s not like some Jared Mitchell or Courtney Hawkins scenario where it’s just theoretical upside. We’ve actually seen it from Robert very recently, on a god awful team no less, which is why I don’t love the MVP argument. There’s way too much team context that goes into it.

I don't think Robert will ever "get close" to Belliinger's 2019 8.6 bWAR. I don't think Robert's currently in the same wilderness Bellinger was during 21-22. (I hope.) 

 

Edited December 20, 20241 yr by WestEddy

31 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This is exactly what I’m talking about.  You constantly find a single data point, ignore all context, and use it to aid your extremely biased positions.  Bellinger came in 10th place in NL MVP voting in 2023…Robert came in 12 place in AL MVP voting that same year.  There is basically no difference in those results.  Additionally, Robert played for a terrible, 61 win team, whereas Bellinger played for a team that was basically in playoff contention until the end of the season.  That makes a huge difference when it comes to MVP voting, but again, something you conveniently leave off the table because it doesn’t support your views.

There was nothing incorrect about what I stated.

30 minutes ago, Snopek said:

Because despite his flaws and injury risk, Robert’s ceiling is still incredibly higher than Bellinger’s, and that’s enticing.

And it’s not like some Jared Mitchell or Courtney Hawkins scenario where it’s just theoretical upside. We’ve actually seen it from Robert very recently, on a god awful team no less, which is why I don’t love the MVP argument. There’s way too much team context that goes into it.

Incredibly higher based on what? His career year, which I personally don’t think he will touch again from a production and health standpoint, resulted in a 5 WAR season. 5 WAR seasons don’t lead to MVPs nowadays even if the Sox have the best record in the AL.

19 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Incredibly higher based on what? His career year, which I personally don’t think he will touch again from a production and health standpoint, resulted in a 5 WAR season. 5 WAR seasons don’t lead to MVPs nowadays even if the Sox have the best record in the AL.

Robert was on pace for a 6 WAR ceiling, but of course, he got hurt.

33 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Arbitrarily picking the last two seasons is what I’m talking about.  Like why not go back to 2020 when Luis first came up?  Robert put up 7.1 fWAR from 2020 to 2022, while Bellinger put up 2.1 fWAR.  That’s 3.4x the production despite ~20% less plate appearances.  But hey, if we exclude those years and anchor off the 2024 season, we can craft a much better anti-Robert, pro Bellinger narrative.

And by the way, Bellinger got his current contract after a really strong 2023 season.  While he wasn’t bad last year, he regressed tremendously and he was arguably not worth his $25M salary as a 2 to 2.5 win player.  If he returns to his 2023 form, he’d have surplus value and would likely opt out of his final year of the contract.  The reality though is that 2023 looks like an outlier for him and the market has reacted accordingly.  Not sure what any of this has to do with Luis Robert though.

A player who regressed tremendously and who arguably was not worth his salary? Gosh I’m not sure what this has to do with Luis Robert.

What's the argument here? That Robert is unlikely to ever have a decent trade value, therefore dump him this offseason for a pile of crap? The Sox already have a ton of 45s in their farm system. 3 more will not move the needle at all. Conversely, Robert is probably the most talented position player the Sox have under contract. (You could dream on Wolkow and maybe Bonemer, but otherwise, no one is close). For $55 mil of Jerry's money, I would much rather watch Robert in a Sox uni playing great D and maybe running into a few balls than run Dominic F-ing Fletcher out in cf for 150 games just so we can see exactly how many games this team can lose. If someone offers you a 55 for him, sure, consider it, but otherwise, this is madness.

16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

A player who regressed tremendously and who arguably was not worth his salary? Gosh I’m not sure what this has to do with Luis Robert.

So you think 2024 is the go forward expectation for Robert and not the dude from 2020 to 2023?

20 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

What's the argument here? That Robert is unlikely to ever have a decent trade value, therefore dump him this offseason for a pile of crap? The Sox already have a ton of 45s in their farm system. 3 more will not move the needle at all. Conversely, Robert is probably the most talented position player the Sox have under contract. (You could dream on Wolkow and maybe Bonemer, but otherwise, no one is close). For $55 mil of Jerry's money, I would much rather watch Robert in a Sox uni playing great D and maybe running into a few balls than run Dominic F-ing Fletcher out in cf for 150 games just so we can see exactly how many games this team can lose. If someone offers you a 55 for him, sure, consider it, but otherwise, this is madness.

Yes, that’s the argument from the anti Robert crowd.  That we must move him now for low certainty / low impact prospects or else we will likely end up with nothing come the trade deadline.  All because Robert had a 2024 season in which he was likely never healthy and was playing for a historically bad club, with a completely incompetent manager, and no offense around him at all.

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yes, that’s the argument from the anti Robert crowd.  That we must move him now for low certainty / low impact prospects or else we will likely end up with nothing come the trade deadline.  All because Robert had a 2024 season in which he was likely never healthy and was playing for a historically bad club, with a completely incompetent manager, and no offense around him at all.

And if the offers are as bad as is being projected here, you sit on him.  This is pretty simple.  Leave the Captain Panic in the closet and don't be scared.  You need high end assets, not mid range starters or worse if you want to turn this around.  Don't settle for mediocrity.  If Chris Getz has half as much faith in his work as some of the people on here do, he should be betting on being able to turn around one of the best talents in baseball.  If he doesn't have faith, well that should be telling us something else.

58 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So you think 2024 is the go forward expectation for Robert and not the dude from 2020 to 2023?

Actual answer: yes I think this is likely. His approach at the plate is terrible and he has been uncoachable for years. Now that the injuries are piling up, that tiny bit of decreased athleticism would be enough to basically kill his performance unless he can take some coaching.

Sarcastic answer: the big time player who averaged 103.667 games per year across those seasons (ignoring 20 which would only make this lower).?

50 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

And if the offers are as bad as is being projected here, you sit on him.  This is pretty simple.  Leave the Captain Panic in the closet and don't be scared.  You need high end assets, not mid range starters or worse if you want to turn this around.  Don't settle for mediocrity.  If Chris Getz has half as much faith in his work as some of the people on here do, he should be betting on being able to turn around one of the best talents in baseball.  If he doesn't have faith, well that should be telling us something else.

Problem is, Jerry may be sweating dumping that salary and told Getz to move him this offseason.

12 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Problem is, Jerry may be sweating dumping that salary and told Getz to move him this offseason.

If Jerry wants to dump $15 mil to get this payroll under $50 mil or whatever it's going to be, there is no hope ever no matter who they acquire for anybody. Max Kepler just got $10 mil. 

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Actual answer: yes I think this is likely. His approach at the plate is terrible and he has been uncoachable for years. Now that the injuries are piling up, that tiny bit of decreased athleticism would be enough to basically kill his performance unless he can take some coaching.

Sarcastic answer: the big time player who averaged 103.667 games per year across those seasons (ignoring 20 which would only make this lower).?

Let’s do a ban bet Ron style.  If Robert posts less than 1 fWAR next year, I will accept a one year ban from this board.  If he produces above 1 fWAR, you take on a one year ban.  That work for you?  Clearly we aren’t going to convince the other of our opinions on this topic, so instead of recycling the same argument over & over again and polluting the broader discussion on the board, let’s put some skin in the game and let Robert settle this once and for all.

31 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Let’s do a ban bet Ron style.  If Robert posts less than 1 fWAR next year, I will accept a one year ban from this board.  If he produces above 1 fWAR, you take on a one year ban.  That work for you?  Clearly we aren’t going to convince the other of our opinions on this topic, so instead of recycling the same argument over & over again and polluting the broader discussion on the board, let’s put some skin in the game and let Robert settle this once and for all.

No I will not and I have no interest in this. It's a baseball discussion, I'm discussing baseball. Some interesting points are made here, including:

Bellinger's performance is way closer to Robert's than I thought

Bellinger's return was really bad

Robert's defense is still strong so even without his offensive performance in 2024 he wasn't awful, but that was relying entirely on defense

Some people still believe that "protection in a lineup" is a key factor in players' performance

The prospects on the Mets are being looked down upon more than I would have thought for 1 year of performance. 

This is the point of discussion. My level of sarcasm here has been "Yeah but Robert gets hurt even in the seasons people are pointing to." What exactly offends you so much about the idea that people have different levels of hope for Robert than you do? 

3 hours ago, Timmy U said:

What's the argument here? That Robert is unlikely to ever have a decent trade value, therefore dump him this offseason for a pile of crap? The Sox already have a ton of 45s in their farm system. 3 more will not move the needle at all. Conversely, Robert is probably the most talented position player the Sox have under contract. (You could dream on Wolkow and maybe Bonemer, but otherwise, no one is close). For $55 mil of Jerry's money, I would much rather watch Robert in a Sox uni playing great D and maybe running into a few balls than run Dominic F-ing Fletcher out in cf for 150 games just so we can see exactly how many games this team can lose. If someone offers you a 55 for him, sure, consider it, but otherwise, this is madness.

And sometimes 45 FV prospects turn into highly productive major leaguers. I’d gladly take 3 of them (all position players) for Robert. Then use those cost savings to sign Ha-seong Kim. I think he’ll cost around $55M same as Robert but for 4 years, not 3, so a lower AAV. He’s been about a 3.3 fWAR per 162 game player and has been far more available to play than Robert over his career. Seems like a Getz player too because he walks a lot, plays terrific defense, and is a plus base runner.

15 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Has anyone noted that Cody Bellinger produced more fWAR than Robert over the past 2 years? Narrow win for Robert in 23, bigger margin for Bellinger in 24.

 

4 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Incredibly higher based on what? His career year, which I personally don’t think he will touch again from a production and health standpoint, resulted in a 5 WAR season. 5 WAR seasons don’t lead to MVPs nowadays even if the Sox have the best record in the AL.

I gave a 4 year look where Robert was clearly better. I'm not really sure what more you want.

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

No I will not and I have no interest in this. It's a baseball discussion, I'm discussing baseball. Some interesting points are made here, including:

Bellinger's performance is way closer to Robert's than I thought

Bellinger's return was really bad

Robert's defense is still strong so even without his offensive performance in 2024 he wasn't awful, but that was relying entirely on defense

Some people still believe that "protection in a lineup" is a key factor in players' performance

The prospects on the Mets are being looked down upon more than I would have thought for 1 year of performance. 

This is the point of discussion. My level of sarcasm here has been "Yeah but Robert gets hurt even in the seasons people are pointing to." What exactly offends you so much about the idea that people have different levels of hope for Robert than you do? 

Throwing last year out for both, Robert had been twice the player the previous 4 years. He also is 2 years younger.

How are people still arguing their similarities?

5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Throwing last year out for both, Robert had been twice the player the previous 4 years. He also is 2 years younger.

How are people still arguing their similarities?

Why are we not looking at their entire careers? These two guys are supposedly in the prime of their careers in their late 20s. And if we are picking smaller sample sizes why is last year not the most relevant of all?