12 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

What is crazy about thinking roch is a 240-250 big league hitter?

40 hit would be below-average which isn't even usually a big league regular. Being a .240 hitter is generally seen as average (50) and the landscape now is even more skewed.

5 minutes ago, oldsox said:

Where is Veras listed? First round?

Not even close. Ranked 498 at BA (probably moving up after the Combine showing) and 236 at Over-Slot. This is a raw tooled up guy that's probably a corner OF with hit tool concerns. Someone to dream on though. It's a Padres draft pick if I've ever seen one.

Edited 4 hours ago4 hr by DirtySox

2 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Not even close. Ranked 498 at BA (probably moving up after the Combine showing) and 236 at Over-Slot. This is a raw tooled up guy that's probably a corner OF, with hit tool concerns. Someone to dream on though. It's a Padres draft pick if I've ever seen one.

I believe he's 198 at Pipeline

2 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

40 hit would be below-average which isn't even usually a big league regular. Being a .240 hitter is generally seen as average (50) and the landscape now is even more skewed.

Not sure i agree with this at all. A 40 mlb hit is a 240ish hitter. I guess if you want to move it down 10 points because of the league shift towards lower averages I could buy that.

Has grade inflation infiltrated the world of prospects too now?!?

Edited 4 hours ago4 hr by Look at Ray Ray Run

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Not sure i agree with this at all. A 40 mlb hit is a 240ish hitter. I guess if you want to move it down 10 points because of the league shift towards lower averages I could buy that.

There's nothing for you to agree or disagree with. The average batting average in MLB right now is .239. It's just math.

32 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

There's nothing for you to agree or disagree with. The average batting average in MLB right now is .239. It's just math.

Thats actually not at all how the math works in these cases. For one, the mark you cite is a random snapshot of June that is the lowest number in 50+ years. Offense is historically lower early on in the year than it is later.

Prospect grades are normalized which allows you to compare players across periods. You would adjust expected outcomes to the environment once a player reaches thay point, but the general premise of being a 240-250 hitter as a 45 is a reasonable benchmark. League average in general is down about 10 points 10 year period over 10 year perood, but that doesn't mean it'll be down 10 points in Roch time. The below is 12 years old but its one of the baselines I built my scales.

FanGraphs Baseball

Scouting Explained: The 20-80 Scouting Scale

Scouting Explained: Introduction, Hitting Pt 1 Pt 2 Pt 3 Pt 4 Pt 5 Pt 6 When I started here just last month, I promised I would write a comprehensive series of articles explaining every part of the 20

32 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

There's nothing for you to agree or disagree with. The average batting average in MLB right now is .239. It's just math.

Edited 4 hours ago4 hr by Look at Ray Ray Run

13 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Thats actually not at all how the math works in these cases. For one, the mark you cite is a random snapshot of June that is the lowest number in 50+ years. Offense is historically lower early on in the year than it is later.

Prospect grades are normalized which allows you to compare players across periods. You would adjust expected outcomes to the environment once a player reaches thay point, but the general premise of being a 240-250 hitter as a 45 is a reasonable benchmark. League average in general is down about 10 points 10 year period over 10 year perood, but that doesn't mean it'll be down 10 points in Roch time. The below is 12 years old but its one of the baselines I built my scales.

FanGraphs Baseball

Scouting Explained: The 20-80 Scouting Scale

Scouting Explained: Introduction, Hitting Pt 1 Pt 2 Pt 3 Pt 4 Pt 5 Pt 6 When I started here just last month, I promised I would write a comprehensive series of articles explaining every part of the 20

Ok fair. I don't personally give a s%*# about Roch Cholowsky's batting average. Also don't feel like debating. We'll find out in a couple weeks and I'll analyze then.

I’m not sure AVG is the most accurate way to assign a hit tool to begin with. Theres too many other variables.

I still lean towards Roch, but can talk myself into any of the top 3, just gonna wait and see who they go with.

Edited 3 hours ago3 hr by Lukakke Appling

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

What is crazy about thinking roch is a 240-250 big league hitter?

Lowest I’ve seen projected by draft publications was .265

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Pal, roch has no where near elite bat to ball skills and he absolutely doesnt have 4+ tools.

Roch Is a 40 run, 40 hit, 50 power, 65 field, 60 arm for me. The guy just hit 320 in the big 10. It's just not very impressive for a 1-1.

Yeah, clearly you can’t be rational on this subject. A 40 hit grade for someone with Roch’s contact, hard hit, & barrel rates is simply laughable. A 50 grade on power is also a joke given his HR output, his 90th percentile & max EVs, and what every single talent evaluator has said about the kid. I get his speed isn’t great but a 40 grade feels very intentional to further devalue the prospect. It’s totally fine if you prefer Lackey, but these Roch takes are absolute garbage.

And you can’t even comment on Lackey’s home/road splits…lol. Again, may or may not be a big deal, but something of interest that I figured you’d have some take on.

50 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yeah, clearly you can’t be rational on this subject. A 40 hit grade for someone with Roch’s contact, hard hit, & barrel rates is simply laughable. A 50 grade on power is also a joke given his HR output, his 90th percentile & max EVs, and what every single talent evaluator has said about the kid. I get his speed isn’t great but a 40 grade feels very intentional to further devalue the prospect. It’s totally fine if you prefer Lackey, but these Roch takes are absolute garbage.

And you can’t even comment on Lackey’s home/road splits…lol. Again, may or may not be a big deal, but something of interest that I figured you’d have some take on.

Both GT and UCLA are comically short fields

27 minutes ago, fathom said:

Both GT and UCLA are comically short fields

Did Roch have extreme home-road splits as well then?

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Did Roch have extreme home-road splits as well then?

No idea, just remember watching a game at UCLA and it was like 315 to right field