Streamer 600 Projections

[Ducksnort]

2 hours ago, almagest said:

If Murakami ends up with 2.1 fWAR and a 118 wRC+ I’d be pretty happy. That’s around an .800 OPS which compared to Vaughn looks like Big Frank is over there again.

What did Milwaukee do to unlock Vaughn's potential? Did they change anything about his swing? Did he just need a change of scenery? It's pretty wild how he completely turned into the hitter we all hoped he would be as soon as he was traded, and then sustained it.

[nrockway]

Robert slashed .298/.352/.456 in the second half across 125 plate appearances. Seems totally reasonable to expect that next season (if he’s healthy). 

[WhiteSox2023]

11 minutes ago, nrockway said:

Robert slashed .298/.352/.456 in the second half across 125 plate appearances. Seems totally reasonable to expect that next season (if he’s healthy). 

Not reasonable at all considering his last two full seasons, healthy or not.  His most recent two seasons of 856 plate appearances have been BAD.

Edited December 28, 2025 by WhiteSox2023

[Chicago White Sox]

29 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Not reasonable at all considering his last two full seasons, healthy or not.  His most recent two seasons of 856 plate appearances have been BAD.

His xwOBA was .322 last year which is slightly above league average.  Not sure how anyone would call that BAD for a CF.

[WhiteSox2023]

7 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

His xwOBA was .322 last year which is slightly above league average.  Not sure how anyone would call that BAD for a CF.

I prefer to look at the actual stats he finished with over the past two seasons.

Edited December 28, 2025 by WhiteSox2023

[southsider2k5]

9 hours ago, nrockway said:

Robert slashed .298/.352/.456 in the second half across 125 plate appearances. Seems totally reasonable to expect that next season (if he’s healthy). 

125 PAs in half a season sounds about right.

[Lukakke Appling]

We really have devolved into an eristic society. 

[chitownsportsfan]

3 hours ago, Lukakke Appling said:

We really have devolved into an eristic society. 

"people ask me what I do in the winter when there's no baseball: I tell them I stare at the screen and argue on Soxtalk."

[WestEddy]

12 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Not reasonable at all considering his last two full seasons, healthy or not.  His most recent two seasons of 856 plate appearances have been BAD.

Robert hasn't been BAD. He's put up around 1.4 bWAR in about 100 games in each of the last two seasons, when stretched over 162 games is about 2 WAR, which is an average major leaguer. And he does have the ceiling of a 4-5 WAR player, if somebody can get him to tap into it again. I don't think it's unreasonable to think he could replicate what he did for a month's worth of games just this last year. If he worked through a hitch in his swing, or started reacting different to the way he's pitched, he doesn't decide in each at-bat he is the guy who OPSed .540 in August of 2024. 

[WhiteSox2023]

7 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Robert hasn't been BAD. He's put up around 1.4 bWAR in about 100 games in each of the last two seasons, when stretched over 162 games is about 2 WAR, which is an average major leaguer. And he does have the ceiling of a 4-5 WAR player, if somebody can get him to tap into it again. I don't think it's unreasonable to think he could replicate what he did for a month's worth of games just this last year. If he worked through a hitch in his swing, or started reacting different to the way he's pitched, he doesn't decide in each at-bat he is the guy who OPSed .540 in August of 2024. 

I was just talking about his bat, hence mentioning his PA over the past two seasons.  His defense is usually good.  And the reason you can’t just stretch out his WAR over 162 games is because he is always due for an injury each season.

[WestEddy]

14 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I was just talking about his bat, hence mentioning his PA over the past two seasons.  His defense is usually good.  And the reason you can’t just stretch out his WAR over 162 games is because he is always due for an injury each season.

Stretching for the sake of argument. He plays at the rate of an average major league player, even if it's just for 2/3 of a season. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 12/28/2025 at 6:56 AM, Lukakke Appling said:

We really have devolved into an eristic society. 

Have not !! 😋

[poppysox]

On 12/28/2025 at 1:57 PM, WestEddy said:

Stretching for the sake of argument. He plays at the rate of an average major league player, even if it's just for 2/3 of a season. 

We don't have anyone at this time who would do better.  Get some pitching and stop worrying about Robert IMO.

[WestEddy]

54 minutes ago, poppysox said:

We don't have anyone at this time who would do better.  Get some pitching and stop worrying about Robert IMO.

I think that's what they're doing. If somebody comes banging on the door with a package, the Sox will listen. 

[Chicago White Sox]

So random question on this.  Do we think that the Sox will have an above league average offense next year?  Looking at the Steamer projections it sure looks like a 100 wRC+ is probable.  Candidly speaking, if Murakami hits his projection I think we could crack the top 10, which would require a 105 wRC+.

[T R U]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So random question on this.  Do we think that the Sox will have an above league average offense next year?  Looking at the Steamer projections it sure looks like a 100 wRC+ is probable.  Candidly speaking, if Murakami hits his projection I think we could crack the top 10, which would require a 105 wRC+.

They are going to need someone from the OF to be good or I don't see how this is possible. I think the IF has a chance to be a really strong unit, especially if all the young guys take another step forward. We probably have the worst OF in baseball though as it currently stands.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So random question on this.  Do we think that the Sox will have an above league average offense next year?  Looking at the Steamer projections it sure looks like a 100 wRC+ is probable.  Candidly speaking, if Murakami hits his projection I think we could crack the top 10, which would require a 105 wRC+.

During their best extended stretch last year they were at about 94... if you shrink it down a little more you can get to 98. The problem with that group is they were terrible defenders (4th worst in baseball) and base runners (3rd worse in baseball), so even if they get that number to 100, you'd be looking at a position group in the top 14 in wRC+ but the bottom 10 of overall value.

That said, the position group has much more reason for some optimism than the pitching group, which is bottom 5 in baseball.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

17 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

During their best extended stretch last year they were at about 94... if you shrink it down a little more you can get to 98. The problem with that group is they were terrible defenders (4th worst in baseball) and base runners (3rd worse in baseball), so even if they get that number to 100, you'd be looking at a position group in the top 14 in wRC+ but the bottom 10 of overall value.

That said, the position group has much more reason for some optimism than the pitching group, which is bottom 5 in baseball.

 

Yeah I’m not at all optimistic on the pitching side (outside of a couple arms). It would be fun to actually add 2 more legit starters to the rotation and try to at least go for a “lightning in a bottle” situation where maybe if everything clicks and guys don’t regress and some guys take steps it can be a competitive season.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

During their best extended stretch last year they were at about 94... if you shrink it down a little more you can get to 98. The problem with that group is they were terrible defenders (4th worst in baseball) and base runners (3rd worse in baseball), so even if they get that number to 100, you'd be looking at a position group in the top 14 in wRC+ but the bottom 10 of overall value.

That said, the position group has much more reason for some optimism than the pitching group, which is bottom 5 in baseball.

 

We had a 98 wRC+ from July 1st forward.  The only real losses since then are Tauchman and Slater who combined for a ~105 wRC+.  If we keep Sosa and use our bench guys appropriately from a platoon standpoint, I think will be a little bit stronger than it was last year.  To go from average to good will certainly require Murakami to achieve his projections as previously mentioned.

The defense being bad is very much a TBD to me.  Robert, Colson, & Meidroth should be fine up the middle.  Benintendi is terrible in LF but sounds like they are trying to play him substantially less there.  Baldwin was awful in multiple spots, but I think he can improve in the outfield more reps.  Hill is a tremendous defender and Pereira should be more than solid in a corner.  Vargas is a question mark at 3B, but didn’t look terrible to me.  I have no idea how Murakami be at 1B, but I’d hope he’s not awful if he could play 3B in Japan.  Catcher is a bit of a wild card but hopefully the rule changes help Quero a bit and I think both him and Teel will continue to improve with time.  Don’t think it will be a good defensive unit, but not ready to say it will be bottom five or anything like that.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

15 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We had a 98 wRC+ from July 1st forward.  The only real losses since then are Tauchman and Slater who combined for a ~105 wRC+.  If we keep Sosa and use our bench guys appropriately from a platoon standpoint, I think will be a little bit stronger than it was last year.  To go from average to good will certainly require Murakami to achieve his projections as previously mentioned.

The defense being bad is very much a TBD to me.  Robert, Colson, & Meidroth should be fine up the middle.  Benintendi is terrible in LF but sounds like they are trying to play him substantially less there.  Baldwin was awful in multiple spots, but I think he can improve in the outfield more reps.  Hill is a tremendous defender and Pereira should be more than solid in a corner.  Vargas is a question mark at 3B, but didn’t look terrible to me.  I have no idea how Murakami be at 1B, but I’d hope he’s not awful if he could play 3B in Japan.  Catcher is a bit of a wild card but hopefully the rule changes help Quero a bit and I think both him and Teel will continue to improve with time.  Don’t think it will be a good defensive unit, but not ready to say it will be bottom five or anything like that.

Honestly, this post basically says:

The bad things you don't believe are actually bad, and the things that are OK are actually good. I'm not sure if it's because we're 3+ months removed from the season or what, but the scenarios being drawn up here are basically... everyone gets better, no one gets worse, and those who were not good surprise and are actually good. As of right now, the Sox have the 4th lowest projected WAR in baseball (NOT BY STEAMER, since STEAMER is not a way to project actual team WAR). This idea that they're some good-luck away from competing just doesn't add up to me. They might/should be more entertaining next year, but this is still one of the worst teams in MLB. Could they make some more adds and maybe get out of the bottom 5? I guess it's possible, but seems unlikely. Additionally, unlike some here I don't trust Getz to make any quality moves since his history is that of not making many quality moves. The only quality players he's acquired came from trading a top 3 pitcher in the game below his peak value (IMO), and someone he picked up in a Rule 5 draft. Almost every other move he has made has been a nothing burger and/or a failure.

Edited 18 hours ago by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Chicago White Sox]

5 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Honestly, this post basically says:

The bad things you don't believe are actually bad, and the things that are OK are actually good. I'm not sure if it's because we're 3+ months removed from the season or what, but the scenarios being drawn up here are basically... everyone gets better, no one gets worse, and those who were not good surprise and are actually good. As of right now, the Sox have the 4th lowest projected WAR in baseball (NOT BY STEAMER, since STEAMER is not a way to project actual team WAR). This idea that they're some good-luck away from competing just doesn't add up to me. They might/should be more entertaining next year, but this is still one of the worst teams in MLB. Could they make some more adds and maybe get out of the bottom 5? I guess it's possible, but seems unlikely. Additionally, unlike some here I don't trust Getz to make any quality moves since his history is that of not making many quality moves. The only quality players he's acquired came from trading a top 3 pitcher in the game below his peak value (IMO), and someone he picked up in a Rule 5 draft. Almost every other move he has made has been a nothing burger and/or a failure.

I certainly think some guys will regress vs. their 2H production, but a lot of that is already reflected in the Steamer projections I highlighted above.  But generally speaking, I do expect talented young players to get better over time.  And that very much holds true on the defensive side of the ball for catchers and guys that are still somewhat new to positions like Baldwin (and maybe Vargas).  Overall, I’m very optimistic about the positional group, but would like to see one more OF addition to improve the floor of the team.

The pitching doesn’t look good on paper right now, but there is a tremendous of young arms that could enter the mix at some point and change the calculus.  I am also very high on Burke (I know you are not) and view Kay as a complete wild card who could perform better than most think.  All that being said, I still think another SP and RP is needed.  This bullpen could actually be decent with Newcomb and one more high leverage arm added to the pen.

Ultimately, you think there is zero chance of competing next year while I think with a few more additions there is some theoretical chance of being a fringe playoff team.  By no means do I think it’s likely, but W-L records are highly impacted by luck and if we have some good news go our way and have a few breakthrough performances next year it might just be possible.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

23 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I certainly think some guys will regress vs. their 2H production, but a lot of that is already reflected in the Steamer projections I highlighted above.  But generally speaking, I do expect talented young players to get better over time.  And that very much holds true on the defensive side of the ball for catchers and guys that are still somewhat new to positions like Baldwin (and maybe Vargas).  Overall, I’m very optimistic about the positional group, but would like to see one more OF addition to improve the floor of the team.

The pitching doesn’t look good on paper right now, but there is a tremendous of young arms that could enter the mix at some point and change the calculus.  I am also very high on Burke (I know you are not) and view Kay as a complete wild card who could perform better than most think.  All that being said, I still think another SP and RP is needed.  This bullpen could actually be decent with Newcomb and one more high leverage arm added to the pen.

Ultimately, you think there is zero chance of competing next year while I think with a few more additions there is some theoretical chance of being a fringe playoff team.  By no means do I think it’s likely, but W-L records are highly impacted by luck and if we have some good news go our way and have a few breakthrough performances next year it might just be possible.

I'll say this, I obviously hope you're right and I'm wrong!

[WestEddy]

35 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I certainly think some guys will regress vs. their 2H production, but a lot of that is already reflected in the Steamer projections I highlighted above.  But generally speaking, I do expect talented young players to get better over time.  And that very much holds true on the defensive side of the ball for catchers and guys that are still somewhat new to positions like Baldwin (and maybe Vargas).  Overall, I’m very optimistic about the positional group, but would like to see one more OF addition to improve the floor of the team.

The pitching doesn’t look good on paper right now, but there is a tremendous of young arms that could enter the mix at some point and change the calculus.  I am also very high on Burke (I know you are not) and view Kay as a complete wild card who could perform better than most think.  All that being said, I still think another SP and RP is needed.  This bullpen could actually be decent with Newcomb and one more high leverage arm added to the pen.

Ultimately, you think there is zero chance of competing next year while I think with a few more additions there is some theoretical chance of being a fringe playoff team.  By no means do I think it’s likely, but W-L records are highly impacted by luck and if we have some good news go our way and have a few breakthrough performances next year it might just be possible.

If some of the guys like Meidroth, Vargas, Sosa, Quero and Baldwin don't turn into (at least) average, 2 bWAR players, if Colson and Teel don't grow into 4+ bWAR dudes, if they can't develop a couple of 3+ bWAR starting pitchers, then what are we even doing? All I'm describing is natural development. Sure, Colson may play a full season and put up 2.5 WAR. That would be a step back. But imagining that nobody's going to improve beyond replacement level just seems unrealistic. 

I think this team is roughly a 75+ win team at this point. If the kids continue to develop, as you noted, if some of these young arms become effective or find some success quickly, a .500 record wouldn't surprise me. 

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

If some of the guys like Meidroth, Vargas, Sosa, Quero and Baldwin don't turn into (at least) average, 2 bWAR players, if Colson and Teel don't grow into 4+ bWAR dudes, if they can't develop a couple of 3+ bWAR starting pitchers, then what are we even doing? All I'm describing is natural development. Sure, Colson may play a full season and put up 2.5 WAR. That would be a step back. But imagining that nobody's going to improve beyond replacement level just seems unrealistic. 

I think this team is roughly a 75+ win team at this point. If the kids continue to develop, as you noted, if some of these young arms become effective or find some success quickly, a .500 record wouldn't surprise me. 

We'll see how it all shakes out. Injuries will also play a big part in how the season goes and the Sox track record the last several years hasn't been great in that department.

I just hope they don't lose 100+ games again this season.