That's the fun of baseball, I guess it could happen.

That said, this team has very little pitching and could very well lose 100 games again. Big error ranges though, as Teel and Colson offer some upside to envision. Of course they also offer downside.

Shane taking a step back after an innings load increase wouldn't be surprising, and the rest of the starters stink.

Edited December 22, 2025Dec 22 by Look at Ray Ray Run

I think an 80 win best case scenario exists assuming they keep Robert and he is healthy.

Realistically I think they fight to get out of the 90 loss range.

9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Or 4.

Yeah, I don’t think we need to add 4 high leverage relievers to perform at a semi normalized level in one run games.  Add  veteran like Fairbanks, use Taylor more in high leverage situations, and hope for some better luck.  We don’t an elite bullpen to not underperform our expected W-L record by 10 games.

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

That's the fun of baseball, I guess it could happen.

That said, this team has very little pitching and could very well lose 100 games again. Big error ranges though, as Teel and Colson offer some upside to envision. Of course they also offer downside.

Shane taking a step back after an innings load increase wouldn't be surprising, and the rest of the starters stink.

You think Burke, Thorpe, & Kay stink?

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Yeah, I don’t think we need to add 4 high leverage relievers to perform at a semi normalized level in one run games.  Add  veteran like Fairbanks, use Taylor more in high leverage situations, and hope for some better luck.  We don’t an elite bullpen to not underperform our expected W-L record by 10 games.

This bullpen is, and continues to be, historically awful.  Even getting back to "average" would involve massive overhaul of the people out there.

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You think Burke, Thorpe, & Kay stink?

I’m really excited to see what Thorpe looks like after he returns. I’ve probably been higher on him than most. 

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

You think Burke, Thorpe, & Kay stink?

Yes.

10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This bullpen is, and continues to be, historically awful.  Even getting back to "average" would involve massive overhaul of the people out there.

Historically awful in what context?

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yes.

Interesting.  So a former consensus top 70 prospect stinks because of why?  Did you actually watch Kay pitch in the NPB?  And I guess Burke performing fairly well down the stretch is meaningless for reasons unknown.

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Historically awful in what context?

What context is needed?  This is a bullpen that is so bad, it has caused the team to preform under their expected record by about 20 games the last two years.  There really hasn't been any substantive changes from the last year to this year, so I wouldn't expect that to change until the people out there do.

18 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You think Burke, Thorpe, & Kay stink?

I don't know what we get out of Burke and Kay, but it is typically a bad idea to expect a lot out of a guy in his first season off of TJS, especially for someone who already has a below average velocity.

31 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Or 4.

so basically spend money Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, Vince Valesquez/Gio Gonzalez, Liam Hendricks and extend Aaron Bummer. because that strategy worked so well before. 

the evidence continues to mount that this is Rick Hahn's burner account.

2 hours ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

From a WAR perspective, the collective output of some of the worst bats who saw considerable playing time - Vaughn, Rojas, Palacios, Amaya put up a whopping -6.0 WAR, while Civale and Cannon accounted for another -1.0 WAR on the starting pitching side. Replacing those with Murakami, and current projected bench players Sosa, Lee, Hill who all were on positive side of the WAR ledger, along with Kay who should at least be better than Civale or Cannon, could be a 10 WAR swing in itself.

What I had noted in the OP, beyond Kay, we need a solid #2 or 3 type of guy along with another late inning high leverage arm to make this at least a respectable staff.

Of course, a bit part of getting back to playing winning baseball would rely some of the other young, core guys taking another step forward, and building a winning and competitive culture in the clubhouse to maximize the talent on the roster. This to me would be the biggest factor in how fast this team can get back on track.

I was using the 2022 Orioles as an example, but of course that level of win increase doesn’t happen often. However I do see the pieces being in place along with 1 or 2 more key FA additions that could make it a possibility.

 

Royals a couple of years ago.

106 losses to playoffs...but that required a boatload of FA signings and career years from Witt Jr. and Perez.

Want to compete?

Robert in 2023 form and the Murakami of that first half of his historic NPB career.

 

It's going to take a lot more than a #2/3 veteran added to the rotrotation.

Smith and Schultz...at least one of them, has to be pretty darned close to great or at least very good.  Same with Braden.

3-5 fWAR level.

 

Let's not forget that Chase Meidroth is projected to lead the team in a decent number of projection models.

Edited December 22, 2025Dec 22 by caulfield12

Happy days are here again. The Sox got tired of losing. Add 2 KC Royals type starting pitcher hacks for 7 mill a year apiece and I may buy mlb.com again. As Harry would sing: "The Sox got tired of losing tra-la tra-la."

35 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

What context is needed?  This is a bullpen that is so bad, it has caused the team to preform under their expected record by about 20 games the last two years.  There really hasn't been any substantive changes from the last year to this year, so I wouldn't expect that to change until the people out there do.

There has been massive turnover in the bullpen. Watching Taylor, Leasure, Vasil, and eventually Berroa won't be as tragic as the group from 2024. The lefthanders are another matter entirely, of course, but I can imagine the Sox having a decent pen in games where they have the lead, and sort of a disaster pen for the blowouts. Not exactly Cleveland or Milwaukee, but not the sole reason for the club losing 100 games either.

2 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

There has been massive turnover in the bullpen. Watching Taylor, Leasure, Vasil, and eventually Berroa won't be as tragic as the group from 2024. The lefthanders are another matter entirely, of course, but I can imagine the Sox having a decent pen in games where they have the lead, and sort of a disaster pen for the blowouts. Not exactly Cleveland or Milwaukee, but not the sole reason for the club losing 100 games either.

Too early to count on Berroa after TJS.

Let's see how his stuff bounces back first.

2-3 years ago, Walker Buehler and Dustin May looked pretty darned great, too.

48 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Interesting.  So a former consensus top 70 prospect stinks because of why?  Did you actually watch Kay pitch in the NPB?  And I guess Burke performing fairly well down the stretch is meaningless for reasons unknown.

I'm happy to get into why each guy is not a viable MLB starter (Kay has that veil of mystery at least... I guess), starting with Burke but when I'm not on mobile. I had some optimism about Burke entering last year, saw his first few starters and did a complete 180. Rest of the year wasn't any better.

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm happy to get into why each guy is not a viable MLB starter (Kay has that veil of mystery at least... I guess), starting with Burke but when I'm not on mobile. I had some optimism about Burke entering last year, saw his first few starters and did a complete 180. Rest of the year wasn't any better.

Yeah over half that current rotation should be depth or at least one in a long relief role. Maybe one as a 5th starter.

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You think Burke, Thorpe, & Kay stink?

I like things about all of them, but if we’re being honest, the median outcome for each of them is a #4

Even if you want to dream big on the positional side, there’s just not remotely enough pitching for an actual run. 

1 hour ago, nrockway said:

so basically spend money Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, Vince Valesquez/Gio Gonzalez, Liam Hendricks and extend Aaron Bummer. because that strategy worked so well before. 

the evidence continues to mount that this is Rick Hahn's burner account.

Yes it has nothing to do with how many games the pen has given away.  It has to be something else.

23 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I like things about all of them, but if we’re being honest, the median outcome for each of them is a #4

You're much higher on them than me/baseball then IMO. The median 3 year outcome for all of those pitchers is being out of MLB baseball.

Kay has literally already been out of MLB. Thorpe had a very very thin line with his velocity. He has an elite pitch though, so maybe he has a shot to stick in the pen.

Burke doesn't fool anyone.

Edited December 22, 2025Dec 22 by Look at Ray Ray Run

34 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

There has been massive turnover in the bullpen. Watching Taylor, Leasure, Vasil, and eventually Berroa won't be as tragic as the group from 2024. The lefthanders are another matter entirely, of course, but I can imagine the Sox having a decent pen in games where they have the lead, and sort of a disaster pen for the blowouts. Not exactly Cleveland or Milwaukee, but not the sole reason for the club losing 100 games either.

This should tell you how far behind the pen is, not isn't.  We have one guy who might be a back end, if everything goes right (last year it did not) shut down guy, and none who are really the classic 7th/8th inning guys and definitely no big time lefty shutdown arms.  Vasil seems to be a bridge guy who covers innings in the middle.  Leasure is a middle guy.

Maybe we get the big arm out of the one Rule 5 guy who can bring it, but the odds are pretty small there too.

28 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I like things about all of them, but if we’re being honest, the median outcome for each of them is a #4

For Burke and Kay I think their ceilings are #4's.  Thorpe obviously has a weirdly high ceiling, but he HAS to be pinpoint in his control for it to happen, and so far he hadn't been able to do that.  Add to that this being his first full year off of TJS, and I wouldn't look for much from him at least this year.

EDIT:  Best case scenario isn't really those three, but Dutch and Smith coming back towards their ceilings and pitching like front end guys.  Those are the two who can front a rotation, not the other three.