I think 5/140 with some club options at the end or 7/160 with an opt out after year three would get it done. Obviously the first option would be better. It's going to be interesting to see how clubs handle negotiations in the offseason and we might just have to wait until after the lockout.

Would anybody predict 200 million to him? He's 7th in MLB in fWAR but he doesn't have the track record or the relative youth (like 22-23) of a superstar. I'm trying to think of a similar contract but failing, anybody got anything? A 26 year old entering his 4th full season in essence who broke out for > 5 WAR after some poor seasons in their early 20s, somebody pull up the B-Ref query.

10 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I think 5/140 with some club options at the end or 7/160 with an opt out after year three would get it done. Obviously the first option would be better. It's going to be interesting to see how clubs handle negotiations in the offseason and we might just have to wait until after the lockout.

Would anybody predict 200 million to him? He's 7th in MLB in fWAR but he doesn't have the track record or the relative youth (like 22-23) of a superstar. I'm trying to think of a similar contract but failing, anybody got anything? A 26 year old entering his 4th full season in essence who broke out for > 5 WAR after some poor seasons in their early 20s, somebody pull up the B-Ref query.

There's a pretty good chance he finishes as a finalist for AL MVP. He's 3rd in the AL in fWAR behind Yordan and Witt. Witt probably won't get enough votes because he got hurt for 2 weeks. It'll probably be Yordan by a mile and then Caminero and Vargas.

He doesn't seem interested in an extension.

Edited 3 hours ago3 hr by SoCalChiSox

He's easily the most important guy to lock up long term. I guess it depends on if they feel he is the long term solution at 3B - his defense is still very much below average. What a great developmental win for the Sox though. He's not a FA until 2030. Probably better to wait, even if you need that forces them to pay him more a few years from now. I'd argue the greatest blunder Hahn made was paying everyone in advance, running up payroll, and preventing additional FA moves to plug holes.

It depends on how long he wants to give up on the back end. He hits arb 1 this year, and would have two more arb years left.

If he was willing to go through the process, he is looking at a top end in the $10 million range, based on the Cody Bellinger/Kris Bryant awards.

Arb 2 is $15 million range

Arb 3 is topped around $25 million. That's 3/50 if he were go through the process. Now if you dress those early numbers up a bit to move some money forward, you are probably making that a 3/60 type award. Machado was $30 million years ago. Bregman topped out at $40 million per, and Rendon hit 35 per in 2019. I would also note that the top end contracts the last few seasons have pushed into the 50 to 60 million per year range.

In this case Vargas is going to hit his free agency year at 30, which isn't ideal, but isn't awful either.

The question is how much free agency does Vargas want to give up? Let's go $40 million per. A 4/100 works out to my previously mentioned 3/60 plus a 1/40. Add in an extra $10 million team buy out option for 1/45. If the Sox decline, he gets 10 million to go away. At worst it is a 4/110 for Vargas. At highest it hits 5/145.

Personally I don't see giving up free agency more than a year/maybe 2 if the Sox pay up. So the most likely it that the Sox have to go out to something like 8/9/10 years throwing in a player opt out after say 5 years.

Let's make a long term deal as 10/20/25/40/40 [player opt out] and then 40/40/30/30/30. Front end is 5/140, with 5/170 in the back for a total of 10/310 if he plays it all out.

Sox lock up Vargas, get the long term huge deal on the books finally, and Vargas gets paid.

According to Les Grossman he thinks it's going to take a G5 airplane and lots of money....playaaaa!