I think 5/140 with some club options at the end or 7/160 with an opt out after year three would get it done. Obviously the first option would be better. It's going to be interesting to see how clubs handle negotiations in the offseason and we might just have to wait until after the lockout.

Would anybody predict 200 million to him? He's 7th in MLB in fWAR but he doesn't have the track record or the relative youth (like 22-23) of a superstar. I'm trying to think of a similar contract but failing, anybody got anything? A 26 year old entering his 4th full season in essence who broke out for > 5 WAR after some poor seasons in their early 20s, somebody pull up the B-Ref query.

10 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I think 5/140 with some club options at the end or 7/160 with an opt out after year three would get it done. Obviously the first option would be better. It's going to be interesting to see how clubs handle negotiations in the offseason and we might just have to wait until after the lockout.

Would anybody predict 200 million to him? He's 7th in MLB in fWAR but he doesn't have the track record or the relative youth (like 22-23) of a superstar. I'm trying to think of a similar contract but failing, anybody got anything? A 26 year old entering his 4th full season in essence who broke out for > 5 WAR after some poor seasons in their early 20s, somebody pull up the B-Ref query.

There's a pretty good chance he finishes as a finalist for AL MVP. He's 3rd in the AL in fWAR behind Yordan and Witt. Witt probably won't get enough votes because he got hurt for 2 weeks. It'll probably be Yordan by a mile and then Caminero and Vargas.

He doesn't seem interested in an extension.

Edited yesterday at 05:39 PM1 day by SoCalChiSox

He's easily the most important guy to lock up long term. I guess it depends on if they feel he is the long term solution at 3B - his defense is still very much below average. What a great developmental win for the Sox though. He's not a FA until 2030. Probably better to wait, even if you need that forces them to pay him more a few years from now. I'd argue the greatest blunder Hahn made was paying everyone in advance, running up payroll, and preventing additional FA moves to plug holes.

It depends on how long he wants to give up on the back end. He hits arb 1 this year, and would have two more arb years left.

If he was willing to go through the process, he is looking at a top end in the $10 million range, based on the Cody Bellinger/Kris Bryant awards.

Arb 2 is $15 million range

Arb 3 is topped around $25 million. That's 3/50 if he were go through the process. Now if you dress those early numbers up a bit to move some money forward, you are probably making that a 3/60 type award. Machado was $30 million years ago. Bregman topped out at $40 million per, and Rendon hit 35 per in 2019. I would also note that the top end contracts the last few seasons have pushed into the 50 to 60 million per year range.

In this case Vargas is going to hit his free agency year at 30, which isn't ideal, but isn't awful either.

The question is how much free agency does Vargas want to give up? Let's go $40 million per. A 4/100 works out to my previously mentioned 3/60 plus a 1/40. Add in an extra $10 million team buy out option for 1/45. If the Sox decline, he gets 10 million to go away. At worst it is a 4/110 for Vargas. At highest it hits 5/145.

Personally I don't see giving up free agency more than a year/maybe 2 if the Sox pay up. So the most likely it that the Sox have to go out to something like 8/9/10 years throwing in a player opt out after say 5 years.

Let's make a long term deal as 10/20/25/40/40 [player opt out] and then 40/40/30/30/30. Front end is 5/140, with 5/170 in the back for a total of 10/310 if he plays it all out.

Sox lock up Vargas, get the long term huge deal on the books finally, and Vargas gets paid.

According to Les Grossman he thinks it's going to take a G5 airplane and lots of money....playaaaa!

Riley Greene has been the better player for a longer time, and had an even higher scouting "pedigree" coming into the draft than Vargas (as a highly hyped but intl. Dodgers #60 something milb guy)...Greene is even out OPSing Vargas this year, FG article had him at 6/$175 million BEFORE the 2026 season and Elly de la Cruz around $230 million.

But Vargas' past struggles (2023-24-large parts of 2025) probably don't put him above $145-160 in comparison, despite that historic 30 30 20 100 stat line...especially with his eventual defensive position somewhat cloudy (see Moncada 2019 season too).

Riley Greene is a better CF comparatively, and an elite LF...which is or should be worth more than a 1B or DH.

Ofc, Vargas was also the key player in this current playoff run, pretty inarguably now with Mune and Colson falling off more dramatically/considerably.

Edited yesterday at 10:31 PM1 day by caulfield12

19 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Riley Greene has been the better player for a longer time, and had an even higher scouting "pedigree" coming into the draft than Vargas (as a highly hyped but intl. Dodgers #60 something milb guy)...Greene is even out OPSing Vargas this year, FG article had him at 6/$175 million BEFORE the 2026 season and Elly de la Cruz around $230 million.

But Vargas' past struggles (2023-24-large parts of 2025) probably don't put him above $145-160 in comparison, despite that historic 30 30 20 100 stat line...especially with his eventual defensive position somewhat cloudy (see Moncada 2019 season too).

Riley Greene is a better CF comparatively, and an elite LF...which is or should be worth more than a 1B or DH.

Ofc, Vargas was also the key player in this current playoff run, pretty inarguably now with Mune and Colson falling off more dramatically/considerably.

Riley Greene runs like jimothy and hasn't ever been an "elite" CF, he's not even playing there anymore and has already been moved to his retirement home in LF. He's a good player for a longer track record than Vargas but he's also limited in ways Miguel is not. Riley's value is almost all in his OBP, Vargas contributes across the board and is still improving at 3B. I'd think most GMs would prefer Vargas for 150 million over the next 6 years.

19 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Riley Greene runs like jimothy and hasn't ever been an "elite" CF, he's not even playing there anymore and has already been moved to his retirement home in LF. He's a good player for a longer track record than Vargas but he's also limited in ways Miguel is not. Riley's value is almost all in his OBP, Vargas contributes across the board and is still improving at 3B. I'd think most GMs would prefer Vargas for 150 million over the next 6 years.

He's also a year more of experience, which is important in the arb system for his earnings.

Four months ago it was Mune. Before that it was guys TA, Robert, etc. Now I'm so gun shy about "locking guys in" until we see some growth in payroll over a couple years. Bad contracts cripple this franchise.

28 minutes ago, Texsox said:

Four months ago it was Mune. Before that it was guys TA, Robert, etc. Now I'm so gun shy about "locking guys in" until we see some growth in payroll over a couple years. Bad contracts cripple this franchise.

Or Kolson, for that matter.

You know Boyer would prefer Mune, but Vargas is actually the most charismatic imo.

Now about that hair…

53 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Riley Greene runs like jimothy and hasn't ever been an "elite" CF, he's not even playing there anymore and has already been moved to his retirement home in LF. He's a good player for a longer track record than Vargas but he's also limited in ways Miguel is not. Riley's value is almost all in his OBP, Vargas contributes across the board and is still improving at 3B. I'd think most GMs would prefer Vargas for 150 million over the next 6 years.

Here was the case two years ago for Greene.

No doubt Clark’s the CFer. They still have to fit Hope in there somewhere…who comes with his own set of limitations, think Delmon Young.

Vargas’ doubts are more about his overall track record, which has some parallels to Moncada, and his eventual defensive position.

The other thing with Greene is he has gone from 20/20 or 30/30 candidate to a limited number of steals.

And he also can hit from the LH side, which is rarer as well.

Edited 23 hours ago23 hr by caulfield12

Maybe Ishbia will step in to guarantee a big Contract. No, forget that. Not going to happen. Keep him for the arbitration years or until minor league guys like Bonemer and Roch step up.

11 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Here was the case two years ago for Greene.

No doubt Clark’s the CFer. They still have to fit Hope in there somewhere…who comes with his own set of limitations, think Delmon Young.

Vargas’ doubts are more about his overall track record, which has some parallels to Moncada, and his eventual defensive position.

The other thing with Greene is he has gone from 20/20 or 30/30 candidate to a limited number of steals.

And he also can hit from the LH side, which is rarer as well.

He's a much harder worker than Moncada. And doesn't have a health issues.

16 hours ago, Texsox said:

Four months ago it was Mune. Before that it was guys TA, Robert, etc. Now I'm so gun shy about "locking guys in" until we see some growth in payroll over a couple years. Bad contracts cripple this franchise.

Especially when they're 30th in the league in revenue. That'll certainly bump up after this season, but it's not like they'll shoot up to the top half of the league in revenue generated.

4 hours ago, Colome's Hat said:

He's a much harder worker than Moncada. And doesn't have a health issues.

Based on?

28 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Based on?

Moncada came across as lazy, but that could just be appearances. I would, however, look at how much Vargas has improved vs. Moncada's stagnant and eventual declining performance as evidence. To me, it seems Vargas really wants it - success, skill, the rewards. Moncada seemed to want the rewards only.

5 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

Moncada came across as lazy, but that could just be appearances. I would, however, look at how much Vargas has improved vs. Moncada's stagnant and eventual declining performance as evidence. To me, it seems Vargas really wants it - success, skill, the rewards. Moncada seemed to want the rewards only.

Actually their early years overlap really well, culminating in a huge 2019. Granted Yoan fell apart after, but I blame the obvious injuries more than any perceived work ethic vagueness. The dude couldn't move without pulling something, and it caught up with him.

Moncada is 31 but his body is 41, poor guy couldn't stay healthy.

I just play out arb 1 and 2, offer the extension before arb 3 if he's still killing it

Edited 7 hours ago7 hr by joejoesox

2 hours ago, Falstaff said:

Moncada is 31 but his body is 41, arrogant prima donna couldn't stay healthy.

Fixed.

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Actually their early years overlap really well, culminating in a huge 2019. Granted Yoan fell apart after, but I blame the obvious injuries more than any perceived work ethic vagueness. The dude couldn't move without pulling something, and it caught up with him.

Even before the injuries Moncada wasn't the 5 tool guy advertised imo. He was just an overhyped prospect. He was not a #1 overall 70 FW guy in hindsight. Much closer to 55. If not for the bad back he probably would have had a decent career but not a superstar at all. Solid regular type maybe an All-Star season a couple times.

Vargas does a lot of things adequate to very well. He has a pretty high floor imo going forward.

6 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Based on?

Facial expressions and body language

23 hours ago, Texsox said:

Four months ago it was Mune. Before that it was guys TA, Robert, etc. Now I'm so gun shy about "locking guys in" until we see some growth in payroll over a couple years. Bad contracts cripple this franchise.

Their bad play certainly crippled the franchise. Just make sure that the farm keeps producing talent to cover for the ones that leave or the ones that don't but we wish had left.
The Astros re-signed really only 1 of their core: Altuve. They picked the right one. But when Correa left, they had Pena ready to go; Spring out, Tucker in. And with that, they still had a high payroll.

2 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Their bad play certainly crippled the franchise. Just make sure that the farm keeps producing talent to cover for the ones that leave or the ones that don't but we wish had left.
The Astros re-signed really only 1 of their core: Altuve. They picked the right one. But when Correa left, they had Pena ready to go; Spring out, Tucker in. And with that, they still had a high payroll.

Along with Bregman. Altuve has really fallen off the last couple of years, though.

Their problem has been pitching.

And Varsho hitting worse than Doyle.