The 2026–27 offseason could be one of the strangest free-agent markets we've seen in years. The current collective bargaining agreement expires December 1, 2026, and the possibility of a lockout creates uncertainty for both players and owners.

It seems like some guys will try to sign early especially the bigger money guys. The journeymen may want to wait. I could also see aggressive teams wanting to increase their payroll before a cap.

Regardless they will play the usual brinkmanship game of threatening to lose a season etc.

I have to imagine with the idea of imposing a top end salary cap, we will see the NYM and LAD of the world sit this one out, or at least not spend on the top end of the market. It might actually be a strategic advantage for teams on the bottom end, if there is indeed a floor coming, to spend now to get above it before prices crash and it becomes harder to hit those numbers.

56 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I have to imagine with the idea of imposing a top end salary cap, we will see the NYM and LAD of the world sit this one out, or at least not spend on the top end of the market. It might actually be a strategic advantage for teams on the bottom end, if there is indeed a floor coming, to spend now to get above it before prices crash and it becomes harder to hit those numbers.

Interesting you think the floor will cause a crash. I am thinking it raises the journeymen while the cap hurts the biggest contracts. I can't imagine the 5 year proposal being implemented, but that would be really interesting to contracts. This may be the first contract negotiations I will actually follow. I do not think a floor will help competitive balance, I just see more Leury Garcia contracts. Guys getting 3/$16 mil instead of 2/$6 mil.

You will be correct if history repeats itself. The "Luxury Tax" era showed slower growth. I am certain that is one of the factors the union is considering. Maybe the Sox can steal a free agent or two that they normally would not be competitive with.

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

I have to imagine with the idea of imposing a top end salary cap, we will see the NYM and LAD of the world sit this one out, or at least not spend on the top end of the market. It might actually be a strategic advantage for teams on the bottom end, if there is indeed a floor coming, to spend now to get above it before prices crash and it becomes harder to hit those numbers.

Anything can happen but I have a hard time seeing the MLBPA agree to any type of cap or floor. it's simply not in their DNA. This gets resolved I think with some smaller concessions on their part and the owners fracturing as they always do.

1 minute ago, Texsox said:

Interesting you think the floor will cause a crash. I am thinking it raises the journeymen while the cap hurts the biggest contracts. I can't imagine the 5 year proposal being implemented, but that would be really interesting to contracts. This may be the first contract negotiations I will actually follow. I do not think a floor will help competitive balance, I just see more Leury Garcia contracts. Guys getting 3/$16 mil instead of 2/$6 mil.

You will be correct if history repeats itself. The "Luxury Tax" era showed slower growth. I am certain that is one of the factors the union is considering. Maybe the Sox can steal a free agent or two that they normally would not be competitive with.

Not the floor, the ceiling. If the top teams send out, the top of the market crashes, pushing everything else down.

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Not the floor, the ceiling. If the top teams send out, the top of the market crashes, pushing everything else down.

If there is a true penalty for not hitting the floor those bottom contracts will inflate. It seems possible the average salary may not shift much, with the bottom earning more and the top less.

4 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Anything can happen but I have a hard time seeing the MLBPA agree to any type of cap or floor. it's simply not in their DNA. This gets resolved I think with some smaller concessions on their part and the owners fracturing as they always do.

I believe anything is possible, a lot will depend on what the MLBPA want in return. Which leads to the "then I guess there will not be baseball in 2027" statements from both sides.

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

I have to imagine with the idea of imposing a top end salary cap, we will see the NYM and LAD of the world sit this one out, or at least not spend on the top end of the market. It might actually be a strategic advantage for teams on the bottom end, if there is indeed a floor coming, to spend now to get above it before prices crash and it becomes harder to hit those numbers.

The opposite theory is the big spenders can load up for one month and get those deals grandfathered in…

Sato will get the most $$$ after Skubal.

Só watch his case, in particular…the agent will want to get it done in November if they can hit $200 million/+posting fee.

Michael King thinking of opting out of his contract.....go get him.

1 minute ago, wegner said:

Michael King thinking of opting out of his contract.....go get him.

For 4 years and $120 million?

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

For 4 years and $120 million?

Strike quick....need starting pitching badly.

30 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The opposite theory is the big spenders can load up for one month and get those deals grandfathered in…

Sato will get the most $$$ after Skubal.

Só watch his case, in particular…the agent will want to get it done in November if they can hit $200 million/+posting fee.

This is exactly what happened in 1994-1995.

30 minutes ago, wegner said:

Michael King thinking of opting out of his contract.....go get him.

Him or Sonny Gray are the two free agents I want the most.

throw money at King, and Rasmussen if he doesn't get his option picked up

37 minutes ago, Colome's Hat said:

Him or Sonny Gray are the two free agents I want the most.

Turning 37 and his fWAR has declined since his peak four seasons ago.

On paper, this year's fWAR is worth around $25 million, but think he gets $30/35 million per year on a 2-3 year deal.

That's where things get complicated.

Properly evaluating Trevor Mahle, for example.

Sox need to sign Skubal or King. Anything less is a failure.

10 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Sox need to sign Skubal or King. Anything less is a failure.

Skubal? Not a chance in hell. King is even probably a long shot.

11 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Sox need to sign Skubal or King. Anything less is a failure.

My father used to say, "Wish in one hand, piss in the other...see which fills up first."

No way the Sox even attempt to sign those guys.