Willie to Milwaukee rumor

[Gene Honda Civic]

How many runs did Pods .800 OBP in the past two days lead to?

1>0

[3E8]

James determined there is a positive correlation between run production and stolen base percentages above 70%. Pods helps in that regard.

[Rowand44]

Hells yeah I'd take Mark Kotsay over scooter.

 

SB's mean nothing.  In 2004, there was a negative correlation between runs scored and Stolen bases.  Baseball is about scoring runs.

 

Correlation to RS

BA - .80

OBP - .87

SLG - .92

OPS - .97

SB - -.16

 

Chicks dig the longball, and so do I.  (I'm a sucker for the suicide sqeeze too, but those actually equate to runs scored)

To tell you the truth cheat those stats mean absolutely nothing to me. The fact remains with a better offense Kotsay scored 78 runs while Scott scored 85 in an awful year offensively for him.

[Soxbadger]

Stolen bases are just one of those things that you either like or dislike.

 

People that like them point to the fact that it can move the runner over without giving up an out, that it puts more pressure on the defense to be protecting against the run, keeps the players focused, etc...

 

Then there are others that say that you can run yourself out of the big inning, that the risks are not worth the rewards, etc.

 

There is no right or wrong answer, just your team needs to stick to a plan and keep with that plan.

 

SB

[3E8]

1>0

My point is you were harping on OBP and he's reached base succesfully in 4 out of 5 trips. Hey, you were comfortable using a two game sample space for SB's.

[Gene Honda Civic]

James determined there is a positive correlation between run production and stolen base percentages above 70%.  Pods helps in that regard.

I can't argue with that, but I reserve the right to scream loudly at my TV anytime one of our runners is thrown out.

[AddisonStSox]

My point is you were harping on OBP and he's reached base succesfully in 4 out of 5 trips.  Hey, you were comfortable using a two game sample space for SB's.

 

You beat me to it with this post.

 

Well done.

[CWSGuy406]

Please don't lump me in that catagory.  I have formed my own opinion.  This has nothing to do with blindly following anyone, espcially Ozzie.  Believe me, I don't put much faith into anything Ozzie says.  I wasn't pleased with his hire last year and he still has to prove to me he can cut it as a manager in the bigs.  Right now, I can't even picture Ozzie holding up an AL pennant, and def. not a WS trophy.  So, cut me a little bit of slack here, I by no means am a blind Ozzie follower.

 

Seems to me like you're pretty confident in Ozzie's/Kenny's decisions to trade Lee, as well as get rid of Harris, but maybe that's just me.

 

BTW -- Rooney and Farmer seemed to have only good things to say about Harris. They realize his situation, but I don't remember them harping on the 'bad attitude' that is so often brought up.

 

And, so what if Harris can't hit left handed pitchers? I'd venture to say that over 70% of starting pitchers in the majors are righties. A guy who can get on at a .370 clip against righties is a very useful asset...

[CWSGuy406]

To tell you the truth cheat those stats mean absolutely nothing to me.  The fact remains with a better offense Kotsay scored 78 runs while Scott scored 85 in an awful year offensively for him.

 

I'll take a league's correlation over a comparison between two guys, but whatever...

 

And, FWIW, I don't mind the fact that Podsednik can steal bases -- in fact, I like him stealing bases. However, I don't like the fact that he's had one good year, and he's never touched a .379 OBP (or whatever it was he put up in '03) ever in his career (I could be wrong about his minor league career, but I don't recall him touching that in the minors, either) -- and it's vital, absolutely vital, that he has an OBP over at least .340 if we want this offense to be successful.

 

And, Kotsay >>> Pods, but that's a bit off-topic.

[3E8]

and it's vital, absolutely vital, that he has an OBP over at least .340 if we want this offense to be successful.

How did you come up with this number?

[CWSGuy406]

How did you come up with this number?

 

Just a general range.

 

No specific reason it's at .340, just I'd want him to be on at that clip.

 

His stolen bases will help us, because he'll (hopefully) have such a high success rate that the times he gets thrown out won't be that often.

 

I think .340 will have our offense flowing (not great, but enough with our *healthy* pitching staff), but even better if it's higher.

 

Just a slight conclusion here -- the past two years, when our leadoff man has done well, our team has (generally) done well. Is that a fair conclusion?

[CWSGuy406]

One more thing...

 

The more times that Scotty Pods is on base this year will also mean the more times that teams will be forced to pitch to Thomas, unless they want two on, one out (assuming that our number two hitter, whoever it is, is able to stay out of double plays).

[That funky motion]

There is more to factor in,with a player that steals bases.Does the pitcher pay to much attention to him and because of this,wild throw,walks man at plate,wild pitch. Then there is the placement of the fielders,1st baseman hold on player,2nd and ss staying closer to 2nd base. Just something to think about

[AnthraxFan93]

Regardless of why the organization has soured on Harris, the fact remains that they obviously have.  The signing of Iguchi tells that tale.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

How many times would KW allowed Harris to fail before you would be happy for him to make a change?

[3E8]

Just a slight conclusion here -- the past two years, when our leadoff man has done well, our team has (generally) done well.  Is that a fair conclusion?

It's more than fair. In 2003, July was our best baseball. Alomar/Graff both hit over .300 that month and had OBP's of at least .380.

 

In 2004, our best ball IMO was April and May. That was when Willie had his BA over .300. But, we also had a healthy Frank and Magglio. Regardless, the lead off hitter is an important factor in a team's overall success.

[witesoxfan]

It's more than fair.  In 2003, July was our best baseball.  Alomar/Graff both hit over .300 that month and had OBP's of at least .380. 

 

In 2004, our best ball IMO was April and May.  That was when Willie had his BA over .300.  But, we also had a healthy Frank and Magglio.  Regardless, the lead off hitter is an important factor in a team's overall success.

 

No. The leadoff hitter is THE most important factor in a team's overall success. If you can have a guy that gets on at a .400 clip, you will have a very solid offense. If your leadoff hitters gets on at a .300 clip, your offense will not be nearly as good. You can look across the league, and some of the better offenses(or some of the more underrated offenses) have very solid leadoff hitters.

 

The second most important factor in a team's overall success is the #2 hitter...if he can do the same as the leadoff hitter, you will have a lot of guys on base for the big hitters in the middle of the lineup.

 

And that is one of the reasons I think, and many think, that Oakland will be way better then people give them credit for. They have a .400 OBP guy and a .370 OBP guy at the top of their order, so they will be getting on base like crazy, and when you have runners on base, you will score runs. Some have thought that they had one of the worst offseasons in the majors, and I am thinking the exact opposite. That's a little off subject, but it pertains to the point anyways.

 

 

I will say however that when done properly, stealing bases, or just the general idea of stealing bases, will get in a pitcher's head and will hurt him down the road, while helping the offense. I think it is useful, but that it is not necessarily important.

[Punch and Judy Garland]

I don't think Oakland has enough protection in the middle of the lineup for Chavez. They desperatley need a right-handed thumper. I think that obp can be overrated very easily. I agree that it is valubale in a lineup of run producers or with speed. When you have neither, I think you don't have an offense capable of being a championship lineup.

[CWSGuy406]

No.  The leadoff hitter is THE most important factor in a team's overall success.  If you can have a guy that gets on at a .400 clip, you will have a very solid offense.  If your leadoff hitters gets on at a .300 clip, your offense will not be nearly as good.  You can look across the league, and some of the better offenses(or some of the more underrated offenses) have very solid leadoff hitters.

 

The second most important factor in a team's overall success is the #2 hitter...if he can do the same as the leadoff hitter, you will have a lot of guys on base for the big hitters in the middle of the lineup.

 

And  that is one of the reasons I think, and many think, that Oakland will be way better then people give them credit for.  They have a .400 OBP guy and a .370 OBP guy at the top of their order, so they will be getting on base like crazy, and when you have runners on base, you will score runs.  Some have thought that they had one of the worst offseasons in the majors, and I am thinking the exact opposite.  That's a little off subject, but it pertains to the point anyways.

I will say however that when done properly, stealing bases, or just the general idea of stealing bases, will get in a pitcher's head and will hurt him down the road, while helping the offense.  I think it is useful, but that it is not necessarily important.

 

Great post, witesoxfan.

 

I also love a lot of the arms that Beane has stockpiled -- I personally think their staff may be better than last season... Calero/Cruz were great pickups for the bullpen, and their rotation will be better than people think.

[qwerty]

No.  The leadoff hitter is THE most important factor in a team's overall success.  If you can have a guy that gets on at a .400 clip, you will have a very solid offense.  If your leadoff hitters gets on at a .300 clip, your offense will not be nearly as good.  You can look across the league, and some of the better offenses(or some of the more underrated offenses) have very solid leadoff hitters.

 

The second most important factor in a team's overall success is the #2 hitter...if he can do the same as the leadoff hitter, you will have a lot of guys on base for the big hitters in the middle of the lineup.

 

And  that is one of the reasons I think, and many think, that Oakland will be way better then people give them credit for.  They have a .400 OBP guy and a .370 OBP guy at the top of their order, so they will be getting on base like crazy, and when you have runners on base, you will score runs.  Some have thought that they had one of the worst offseasons in the majors, and I am thinking the exact opposite.  That's a little off subject, but it pertains to the point anyways.

I will say however that when done properly, stealing bases, or just the general idea of stealing bases, will get in a pitcher's head and will hurt him down the road, while helping the offense.  I think it is useful, but that it is not necessarily important.

 

 

Whenever we talk about the a's for more than about four posts someone usually says they do not want to talk about them or care about them.

 

Either way preach it.

[SoxFan562004]

No.  The leadoff hitter is THE most important factor in a team's overall success.  If you can have a guy that gets on at a .400 clip, you will have a very solid offense.  If your leadoff hitters gets on at a .300 clip, your offense will not be nearly as good.  You can look across the league, and some of the better offenses(or some of the more underrated offenses) have very solid leadoff hitters.

 

The second most important factor in a team's overall success is the #2 hitter...if he can do the same as the leadoff hitter, you will have a lot of guys on base for the big hitters in the middle of the lineup.

 

And  that is one of the reasons I think, and many think, that Oakland will be way better then people give them credit for.  They have a .400 OBP guy and a .370 OBP guy at the top of their order, so they will be getting on base like crazy, and when you have runners on base, you will score runs.  Some have thought that they had one of the worst offseasons in the majors, and I am thinking the exact opposite.  That's a little off subject, but it pertains to the point anyways.

I will say however that when done properly, stealing bases, or just the general idea of stealing bases, will get in a pitcher's head and will hurt him down the road, while helping the offense.  I think it is useful, but that it is not necessarily important.

I agree with the leadoff hitter theory. That's why I'm excited for the Sox season if Pods and Iguchi can come through. Look at the Marlins 2 years ago, yeah Beckett and the staff were awesome, but I think Castillo and Pierree were the keys. You had teams like the Cubs and Yankees who could only pound the ball, but the Marlins were able to manufacture runs and cause chaos with average defenses.

[jackie hayes]

I agree with the leadoff hitter theory.  That's why I'm excited for the Sox season if Pods and Iguchi can come through.  Look at the Marlins 2 years ago, yeah Beckett and the staff were awesome, but I think Castillo and Pierree were the keys.  You had teams like the Cubs and Yankees who could only pound the ball, but the Marlins were able to manufacture runs and cause chaos with average defenses.

As far as their offense goes, they also had Pudge, Lee, Lowell, and Cabrera. The top of the lineup got on base, which is their key job. But I think it's easy to give them too much credit. Until Frank comes back at least, I don't think the middle of our lineup can match that. AJ helps (big), but Dye is not of that calibre.

 

Incidentally, the Marlins' 2b that year was TRULY brutal on the basepaths, 21/40. So if you think Willie is bad...

 

And we still don't know that Willie can't hit lhp. In the minors he hit lhp as well as rhp. He hasn't gotten the abs in the ML to decide the question either way, but it'd be odd to see that single ability not translate.

[witesoxfan]

I don't think Oakland has enough protection in the middle of the lineup for Chavez. They desperatley need a right-handed thumper. I think that obp can be overrated very easily. I agree that it is valubale in a lineup of run producers or with speed. When you have neither, I think you don't have an offense capable of being a championship lineup.

 

Agreed that Oakland could use a RH thumper. They have a lot of very solid LH bats, mainly Chavez, Durazo, Thomas and Hatteberg, and they have some other decent bats, including Byrnes, Crosby, Ginter, among a few others.

 

What is very noticeable with the A's is the amount of very solid talent they have...if there is a team that is looking to add 2 very solid hitters while only giving up 1, I could see them being a trading partner with Oakland. A perfect example would have been Carlos Lee during the offseason(and I personally would not have minded a Byrnes and Thomas for Lee trade at all, but we probably would have had to of taken on quite a bit of money, money that would be spent better elsewhere.

 

I'm sure that need will be addressed.

 

I am also not positive that Kendall will leadoff...in fact, I think I've read where he may hit 3rd, but atleast 2nd...but that doesn't affect a ton.

 

Kotsay - CF

Kendall - C

Hatteberg - 1B

Chavez - 3B

Durazo - DH

Byrnes - LF

Thomas - RF

Crosby - SS

Ellis/Ginter - 2B

 

or so

 

And like I said...I do imagine that a RH thumper will be brought in, as that is about Oakland's biggest glaring need.

 

In a couple years...this could be one of the best teams in the majors...again. Surprise, surprise

[SoxFan1]

Yep, you went too far that time.  That dude is a waste of space.

 

He's right up there with some of the more disgraceful players in recent White Sox memory, including Kenny Lofton, D'Angelo Jiminez, Wil Cordero, Jose Canseco, etc.  The list goes on and on.  And I don't mean disgraceful in terms of performance.  I'm talking about character.

Kenny Lofton was great. Your crazy...he lead off, got hits, stole bases, scored runs, and was a verbal leader. Oh, and he played good D. What more can you ask for?

[Gene Honda Civic]

Kenny Lofton was great. Your crazy...he lead off, got hits, stole bases, scored runs, and was a verbal leader. Oh, and he played good D. What more can you ask for?

PLaying after May 1st would be a help.

[Chisoxfn]

Personally i think it would be absolutely foolish for the Sox to deal Harris. Considering you could have Crede struggle at 3rd or Iguchi struggle at 2nd or even an injury Harris is what I'd deem a valuable asset since I fully believe he's capable of starting at 2nd base and that may happen. Plus he had a .360 or so OBP against righties last year.