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Will the rebuilt Twins finish ahead of the goinforitall Sox?


WHITESOXRANDY
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QUOTE(michelangelosmonkey @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 09:10 PM)
Owens sucks

 

Got that one right for sure.

 

For what it's worth, I never said Crede, nor Dye, nor Contreras sucked...I actually like Dye and think he's underappreciated by quite a few. What I did say was that Crede and Contreras were not "really good." Those are your words. Believe it or not, there is middle ground between "suck" and "really good." Imagine that.

 

(this has to do with the disrespectful tone; not only that someone would say that Contreras and Crede are really good, but when that thought is questioned, they immediately move to the other side of the spectrum. I never said they sucked. Read up a little bit and see that I've said that I think Contreras is due for a bounce back year, but I'd still move him if it helps the major league team. Crede I could quite honestly care less about because I think he's gone regardless, whether that's right or wrong)

 

It was you that threw the gauntlet saying the Twins are WAY better than the Sox and that the Sox are in for a long year.

 

Not to call him out, but I'm quite sure that was Keith, ala CWSGuy. I have no idea what kind of year the Sox are in for; I imagine about 85 wins with the moves I expect the team to make while they have a shot at contention until September 1st.

 

But thanks for accusing me of something I didn't say.

 

Someone else said the Royals were better and Detroit and Cleveland were elite teams. This is done by predicting the future this way: All AL Central prospects will be studs. All Sox prospects will be horrible. All AL players will be equal to last year as will all Sox players. History before 2007 is meaningless.

 

Yeah, that's exactly it, there's no reasoning at all behind the thought.

 

If you want to argue how Crede and Contreas will perform in 2008 after their 2006/7 back injuries...that's fine. But to suggest they were never good? Crede's Avg/OBP/SP each went up from 2004 to 2005 to 2006...so the idea that a (then) 26 year old third baseman might be learning and getting better while playing great defense and now he's worthless because he had a year with a bad back? And Contreas was the Sox ace in the WS year and 9-0 through the first half of 2006...and then hurt his back and was bad for a year. But it's impossible that he will be back? That his August+ Sept 3.75ERA and 3 to 1 strikeout to walk rate are just an illusion?

 

First, find where I said they were NEVER good. Then make this argument. In other words, this argument is meaningless, because I would never make such a ridiculous argument, and you are merely putting words in my mouth. Crede had very good years in 2005 (when healthy) and 2006, yet those years go unappreciated by some merely because of OPS. However, he's coming off a back surgery - which will almost assuredly take a step away from his range defensively - and there's no guarantee beyond that that he will stay healthy or even produce to where he did in 2005 at this point.

 

And I just don't get the slam on Gio. The kid led all the minors in strikeouts...at 21...in double A. 3 to 1 walk to strikeout rate. 1.15 WHIP. And I'm forced to be rational and say he'll never be a stud...while listening to people brag about every arm in the Twins minors being future stars?

 

Again, thanks for the over exaggeration. Gio probably is a #2 if absolutely everything goes right, but more likely a #3 starter (ala Jon Garland and Javy Vazquez...but yeah he still sucks). The knocks on him are his height, his injury concerns, and the possibility he will give up home runs (with consideration that he was a 20 year old, he still gave up 24 homers in 154.2 innings in 2006 in AA, which equates to roughly 1.4 homers per 9; he had a 1.46 GO/AO this year, while allowing 14 fewer homers, but the Hoov is a huge pitchers park, so the reduced homers should not come as a surprise, and his performance in AAA will be very indicative of the type of pitcher he is).

 

Gio has pretty crazy good stuff, but his height really does hurt him in this. He's usually listed as 5'11, but people on here have said that they figure him to be about 5'8 or 5'9, which is super short; if he can get it up there, all should be fine and he'll give the Sox 100 good innings this year.

 

I'm not saying the Sox will be dominant...but in 2006 with roughly the same offense they scored 200 more runs than in 2007. Baseball's a funny game. Sometimes the hot prospects fizzle. Sometimes Ordonez hits .360 and sometimes .290. KW is trying to put together a team to win the WS and its NOT silly to think the core of this team could recapture a bit of the magic. Wishful thinking, sure. But so is EVERY other team.

 

The White Sox were, like, hands down the best team in baseball in the first half of 2006. Konerko and Dye were having amazing year, Crede was in the midst of the best year of his career, Thome was having a resurgence, the pitching staff was solid while the Tigers had seemingly gotten quite lucky throughout much of it, and they went into the break 2 games ahead of the Sox. The Sox have been a bad team ever since the ASB of 2006, like way below .500 (105-133, 28 games below .500, a .441 winning percentage). There have been problems with this team for a year and a half, and I still haven't seen them solved yet.

 

 

 

 

QUOTE(iamshack @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 10:34 PM)
Answer me this: If Jose Contreras is 47 or whatever it is you say he is (and I know you are exaggerating), how is it that he was able to dominate the league for a year when he was 45? He was old as hell in mid-05 to mid-06, why did that not preclude him from performing that way then? So logic says if he was able to be old as hell then and dominate, he should be able to be old as hell now and dominate. Now clearly I understand that all humans reach a point at which their bodies deteriorate. That deterioration makes it impossible to perform at a level which is necessary to be an effective professional sports player. But until you see the physical results of that deterioration, you simply cannot say he sucks because he is old.

 

Jose still has a great arm. He still has great stuff. He certainly has the ability to get hitters out at a tremendous rate in major league baseball, IMHO. What else do we know about Jose? He is sort of weak mentally. He gets flustered easily, at least on the baseball field. And what else do we know? His wife left him. His family structure basically collapsed. Now I am not making excuses for him- plenty of ballplayers have played through situations like that- even excelled in them. But I don't think it's fair to ignore something like that either, especially given what we've seen in Jose's history before. I think he can still be a good pitcher in this league. If he did it when he was 2 years ago, he can do it still now. He still has a great arm.

 

One injury. A back injury. He hasn't been the same pitcher since that point in time. Since I like to do it, and since it makes a pretty fair point, I'll throw some numbers and see if they stick:

 

Aug 4, 2005 thru May 4, 2006 (his last start before going down with injury)

ERA - 2.08

WHIP - 0.98

IP - 155.2

 

May 21, 2006 thru present

ERA - 5.37

WHIP - 1.48

IP - 340.1

 

It is virtually impossible to disagree with the vast majority of your second paragraph, especially the first and last sentences, and I do believe that Contreras still has the second best arm in the White Sox rotation, even with the drop in velocity he has seen. He did have a good August and September, putting up a 3.84 ERA, and had a very good 55 inning stretch, but, if you look at WHIP as large factor in ERA, it was a bit of smoke and mirrors (3.11 ERA, 1.40 WHIP...that's nearly impossible to sustain, especially with a K/9 of 6.2 during that stretch).

 

However, the part I disagree with is that Contreras can be the same pitcher he was 2 years ago; I do not believe he can be the same pitcher he was in 2005 and the early part of 2006; his back limits him too much. I still firmly believe he can be an effective pitcher for about 180 innings with a couple DL stints during the course of the season for him which is why it is important that the Sox have options at the minor league level for spot starts; fortunately for the Sox, they do. From what I understand, Broadway looked very good in his spot start, and I am looking for big things from him this year, as I expect him to go from a mediocre starting pitching prospect to the second best high level SP prospect in the White Sox system (behind Gio, ahead of Egbert...DLS is a wildcard, because I imagine he is either going to be called up mid year to be a setup man for the Sox, or he will remain in A+ and AA all year and further develop himself as a starter). So, in that regard, I am actually not worried.

 

As for Crede, the same situation applies. Joe has had a bad back for several years now. This did not simply creep up at the end of 2006 for the first time. He played with the back situation in 05' and 06', and did quite well. I have no doubts that if he has alleviated most of the pain, he can play quite well with it again. Possibly even better. How can anyone say whether he will never return to the player he was at the end of 05' and most of 06' as of this moment?

 

I'm merely playing the odds at this point. What I understand is that back problems tend to linger, and that surgery is iffy as hell, and, while surgery makes the pain tolerable, it also makes it generally painful all the time, which would be something Crede would have to adjust to over the course of the year. It is possible he could come back better, but I'm basically saying that I wouldn't count on it, and that I would imagine this back issue will become a recurring theme throughout his career, perhaps forcing him to an early retirement. I would also imagine it takes a step away from his range at 3B, which is his biggest asset.

 

And, to throw some more stats at you, Crede after he got a cortisone shot (I believe during the 2005 season, which brought him to health) and his downfall in 2006 to present.

 

Sept 10, 2005 thru Aug 11, 2006 (incl playoffs)

.318/.358/.597/.955 - 491 ABs

 

Aug 12, 2006 thru present

.219/.263/.340/.603 - 320 ABs

 

His back was absolutely killing him, and right now, nobody knows how he will recover, but it's not a guarantee he will recover well.

 

If nothing can be brought back in value for him, he should be kept and put at 3B, because the White Sox have made worse risks (like last year when they had Erstad in CF...that is probably the dumbest move KW has ever made), and the downgrade in LF (Jerry f'in Owens?) is much worse than taking a risk on Joe Crede at 3B. If Owens is in LF, I'd imagine the Sox are in a pretty rough spot; if Crede is at 3B and Fields in LF, the Sox have a fair shot at competing, though I imagine they will still end around the 85 win mark.

 

I do think quite highly of Crede; he's been an [under/over]appreciated player over the past 6 years, but he's still been a good player. There's no guarantee he will be good coming off his back surgery, and counting on him to return to even his 2003 form would be a mistake.

 

I understand things are not perfect with the White Sox right now. But they aren't absolutely horrific either. And I have no problem with people being critical of the organization here- that's part of why we all come here. But eventually the negativity starts spreading and people begin adopting that attitude without question- to the point where the overall viewpoint of the team and organization is no longer accurate. I feel that is what has happened here. They say perception is reality, and that is the reality here at Soxtalk- that the organization is in a miserable state. Yet that perception exists here, not on the field, which is all that matters.

 

The organization is in a down state; we are not yet the Giants nor the Orioles, but the potential remains that the Sox could get there. Honestly, if you can look through the bulls*** negativity, you can see quite a few people feel that way. However, the Sox are also not the Pirates, Nationals, or Rangers right now either; they are actually trying to compete. They could strive to be the Marlins, and due to the short-term, that would be great in the long-term. That's never going to happen; I'm not sure I'm happy with that thought, but I have to see what KW has in mind. In my mind, the goal is to become the Red Sox; a team whose minor league system is strong enough that they can implement players into the starting lineup, and those players will be quite good immediately. This will also maintaining the money supply to bring in name players, resign stars, and keep the bandwagon fan interested to the point where they will come regardless of whether you put out a disappointing 82-80 team or a 97-65 team.

 

Basically, when the best does not occur, "we" become agitated. When good does not occur, "we" become upset and angry. When mediocre or worse occurs, "we" come outraged as hell.

Edited by witesoxfan
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QUOTE(Kalapse @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 07:12 PM)
I was surprised by something I just heard on ESPN news, it was just a lead-in to a Tim Kurkjian piece but the anchor says "the usual big spenders are taken a look at Santana with the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox and Angels are reportedly putting together packages for the 29 year old left hander." I know it means absolutely nothing at all and the Sox really don't make much sense as a possible suitor for Johan (in the same division, lacking a big time pitching prospect, starting pitcher looking for a 6+ year deal) but it was just odd to hear the White Sox mentioned.

 

Interesting. I wonder if a 3 way deal is in the works?

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QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Nov 29, 2007 -> 02:00 AM)
Got that one right for sure.

 

For what it's worth, I never said Crede, nor Dye, nor Contreras sucked...I actually like Dye and think he's underappreciated by quite a few. What I did say was that Crede and Contreras were not "really good." Those are your words. Believe it or not, there is middle ground between "suck" and "really good." Imagine that.

 

(this has to do with the disrespectful tone; not only that someone would say that Contreras and Crede are really good, but when that thought is questioned, they immediately move to the other side of the spectrum. I never said they sucked. Read up a little bit and see that I've said that I think Contreras is due for a bounce back year, but I'd still move him if it helps the major league team. Crede I could quite honestly care less about because I think he's gone regardless, whether that's right or wrong)

Not to call him out, but I'm quite sure that was Keith, ala CWSGuy. I have no idea what kind of year the Sox are in for; I imagine about 85 wins with the moves I expect the team to make while they have a shot at contention until September 1st.

 

But thanks for accusing me of something I didn't say.

Yeah, that's exactly it, there's no reasoning at all behind the thought.

First, find where I said they were NEVER good. Then make this argument. In other words, this argument is meaningless, because I would never make such a ridiculous argument, and you are merely putting words in my mouth. Crede had very good years in 2005 (when healthy) and 2006, yet those years go unappreciated by some merely because of OPS. However, he's coming off a back surgery - which will almost assuredly take a step away from his range defensively - and there's no guarantee beyond that that he will stay healthy or even produce to where he did in 2005 at this point.

Again, thanks for the over exaggeration. Gio probably is a #2 if absolutely everything goes right, but more likely a #3 starter (ala Jon Garland and Javy Vazquez...but yeah he still sucks). The knocks on him are his height, his injury concerns, and the possibility he will give up home runs (with consideration that he was a 20 year old, he still gave up 24 homers in 154.2 innings in 2006 in AA, which equates to roughly 1.4 homers per 9; he had a 1.46 GO/AO this year, while allowing 14 fewer homers, but the Hoov is a huge pitchers park, so the reduced homers should not come as a surprise, and his performance in AAA will be very indicative of the type of pitcher he is).

 

Gio has pretty crazy good stuff, but his height really does hurt him in this. He's usually listed as 5'11, but people on here have said that they figure him to be about 5'8 or 5'9, which is super short; if he can get it up there, all should be fine and he'll give the Sox 100 good innings this year.

The White Sox were, like, hands down the best team in baseball in the first half of 2006. Konerko and Dye were having amazing year, Crede was in the midst of the best year of his career, Thome was having a resurgence, the pitching staff was solid while the Tigers had seemingly gotten quite lucky throughout much of it, and they went into the break 2 games ahead of the Sox. The Sox have been a bad team ever since the ASB of 2006, like way below .500 (105-133, 28 games below .500, a .441 winning percentage). There have been problems with this team for a year and a half, and I still haven't seen them solved yet.

One injury. A back injury. He hasn't been the same pitcher since that point in time. Since I like to do it, and since it makes a pretty fair point, I'll throw some numbers and see if they stick:

 

Aug 4, 2005 thru May 4, 2006 (his last start before going down with injury)

ERA - 2.08

WHIP - 0.98

IP - 155.2

 

May 21, 2006 thru present

ERA - 5.37

WHIP - 1.48

IP - 340.1

 

It is virtually impossible to disagree with the vast majority of your second paragraph, especially the first and last sentences, and I do believe that Contreras still has the second best arm in the White Sox rotation, even with the drop in velocity he has seen. He did have a good August and September, putting up a 3.84 ERA, and had a very good 55 inning stretch, but, if you look at WHIP as large factor in ERA, it was a bit of smoke and mirrors (3.11 ERA, 1.40 WHIP...that's nearly impossible to sustain, especially with a K/9 of 6.2 during that stretch).

 

However, the part I disagree with is that Contreras can be the same pitcher he was 2 years ago; I do not believe he can be the same pitcher he was in 2005 and the early part of 2006; his back limits him too much. I still firmly believe he can be an effective pitcher for about 180 innings with a couple DL stints during the course of the season for him which is why it is important that the Sox have options at the minor league level for spot starts; fortunately for the Sox, they do. From what I understand, Broadway looked very good in his spot start, and I am looking for big things from him this year, as I expect him to go from a mediocre starting pitching prospect to the second best high level SP prospect in the White Sox system (behind Gio, ahead of Egbert...DLS is a wildcard, because I imagine he is either going to be called up mid year to be a setup man for the Sox, or he will remain in A+ and AA all year and further develop himself as a starter). So, in that regard, I am actually not worried.

I'm merely playing the odds at this point. What I understand is that back problems tend to linger, and that surgery is iffy as hell, and, while surgery makes the pain tolerable, it also makes it generally painful all the time, which would be something Crede would have to adjust to over the course of the year. It is possible he could come back better, but I'm basically saying that I wouldn't count on it, and that I would imagine this back issue will become a recurring theme throughout his career, perhaps forcing him to an early retirement. I would also imagine it takes a step away from his range at 3B, which is his biggest asset.

 

And, to throw some more stats at you, Crede after he got a cortisone shot (I believe during the 2005 season, which brought him to health) and his downfall in 2006 to present.

 

Sept 10, 2005 thru Aug 11, 2006 (incl playoffs)

.318/.358/.597/.955 - 491 ABs

 

Aug 12, 2006 thru present

.219/.263/.340/.603 - 320 ABs

 

His back was absolutely killing him, and right now, nobody knows how he will recover, but it's not a guarantee he will recover well.

 

If nothing can be brought back in value for him, he should be kept and put at 3B, because the White Sox have made worse risks (like last year when they had Erstad in CF...that is probably the dumbest move KW has ever made), and the downgrade in LF (Jerry f'in Owens?) is much worse than taking a risk on Joe Crede at 3B. If Owens is in LF, I'd imagine the Sox are in a pretty rough spot; if Crede is at 3B and Fields in LF, the Sox have a fair shot at competing, though I imagine they will still end around the 85 win mark.

 

I do think quite highly of Crede; he's been an [under/over]appreciated player over the past 6 years, but he's still been a good player. There's no guarantee he will be good coming off his back surgery, and counting on him to return to even his 2003 form would be a mistake.

The organization is in a down state; we are not yet the Giants nor the Orioles, but the potential remains that the Sox could get there. Honestly, if you can look through the bulls*** negativity, you can see quite a few people feel that way. However, the Sox are also not the Pirates, Nationals, or Rangers right now either; they are actually trying to compete. They could strive to be the Marlins, and due to the short-term, that would be great in the long-term. That's never going to happen; I'm not sure I'm happy with that thought, but I have to see what KW has in mind. In my mind, the goal is to become the Red Sox; a team whose minor league system is strong enough that they can implement players into the starting lineup, and those players will be quite good immediately. This will also maintaining the money supply to bring in name players, resign stars, and keep the bandwagon fan interested to the point where they will come regardless of whether you put out a disappointing 82-80 team or a 97-65 team.

 

Basically, when the best does not occur, "we" become agitated. When good does not occur, "we" become upset and angry. When mediocre or worse occurs, "we" come outraged as hell.

 

Sorry if I lumped all the negative thoughts into one jumble in my mind. I have yet to learn the individual posters...I read five hundred postings in a row across the board about how awful we will be and how great everyone else is going to be and I get frustrated. Anyway...I now remember you...you are the reasoned one...that bites. Most of the things I agree with you on. You are not the most wildly negative of the posters. Some of this stuff is semantical quibbles. We basically agree on Gio...my only point is...once in a while a pitcher comes up and is lights out...Guairdo kept the Brewers in the race the second half of last year. Liriano kept the Twins in the race in 06. Suppose Gio comes up in May after FLoyd fails and goes 15-5. It's NOT impossible. It's not probable...I just think its more fun to come up with a scenario how the Sox win. It's really easy to come up with a scenario how they lose. Last years team was bad...their farm system is bad. Therefore they will be bad. I just think people misunderstand teh farm system. You could have 6 last place farm teams...150 bad players and teh equivalent young Santana and Pujols and you have the best farm system in baseball. The Twins got lucky with Santana. The Cards got lucky with Pujols. The Sox haven't gotten lucky since Frank in 1990...that is guys that look good and then come up and are GREAT.

 

I also think people misunderstand the up and down nature of players...obviously you don't...you made excellant points about Dye, Crede and Contreas. You fought with me because I said 'core of really good players'. You say, if I understand...Crede and Contreas can no longer be considered really good because of the injury factor. That's fair enough. I'm just saying there's two outcomes possible on each. Crede is back and healthy and plays great like 06...or his injury leaves him horrible. Contreas is back and healthy and plays great like first half of 06...or he's done. If both are bad...Sox are in for a long season. If both are back...Sox could contend.

It is not unreasonable or pie in the sky to think they will both come back, that Dye, Konerko and AJ bounce back to have better seasons. That a bullpen with a bunch of goods arms will not all be bad at once. And that of Richar, Fields, owens, Danks, Floyd, ...3 get better in their second year...with maybe one becoming much better. That team would contend.

Peace?

 

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2 things that I would like to add:

 

1. The Sox going after Santana makes a lot of sense.

 

2. Gio's height should not be an issue. He's listed at 5'11". This guy has had scouts examining him so closely for years now that they know what the stains on his jockey shorts look like. If he were actually 5' 8" tall it would have been widely reported by now. My feeling is that due to his slight build that he appears smaller to some watching a game but I seriously doubt that he is shorter than 5'10".

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What the sox showed in picking DLS, is that their scouting in Latin America is alive. This is the area [along with the draft] that has hurt the sox farm system. Right now the sox farm system doesn't look great. Yet that outlook can change quickly within two years--when some of the sox contracts will be up [thome, Dye, etc]. So to answer the question if the Twins will be ahead of the sox, it's way too early to predict for 2008 or in the next few years.

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Outside of a Santana deal, I don't see the Twins regressing that much from last season.

 

Garza, as much as I love the guy, had not done anything special. The replacement of him by Liriano in the rotation will surely be enough to compensate for him (provided Liriano is healthy). Liriano is like a FA for them to an extent since they didn't have him last year. We can't overlook that.

 

Add on top of that Delmon Young. Don't be fooled by the fact that he played in Tampa and hasn't "broke out" yet. If it isn't this season, o well, I'd still imagine offensively his numbers will be comparable to Hunter's. His numbers will improve and they weren't really that bad to begin with for a guy who was considered a rookie.

 

Now Santana appears all but out the door. The NYY look to be the winner. So I guess really you can pencil Melky in CF for them which will be an improvement when you count him + Young in that OF over just Hunter.

 

I guess Liriano would be better suited to compare to Johan in this case, not Garza. Liriano will fail to measure up but Hughes shouldn't have trouble outperforming Garza and could potentially bridge the gap for Liriano-to-Santana performance wise.

 

Silva basically is the X factor for them. It all depends on how high you are on guys like Slowey. I think Slowey is going to be a good middle of the rotation starter and can play on a Silva level. Perkins is nothing to be overlooked either. Although I am just not 100% sold on him yet.

 

Don't forget Nathan is likely to be dealt. I'd imagine they can command one or two mlb ready pieces. Probably a good SP and maybe a 2nd baseman? Neshek I think could be a good closer but maybe I overrate him a little.

 

All in all, the only way I see this team not being as good or better is inexperience and health. On the surface, perfect world scenario's, I thnk they look better. It's tough to say it when you lose 3 elite players but they are replacing them with elite TALENT. Those guys may not be ready but nothing says they can't be. Replacing Santana will be impossible but upgrading elsewhere can make up for it.

 

As it stands now with Santana and Nathan. They are better then us. When they deal those guys...I'll still say they look better then us and will embarress us during the season because they did what we should've. Their young studs will beat up our old ones and we will all be in this same position next year.

Edited by Chombi
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Yea that is true. I wasn't even thinking about Cuddyer's arm. I am surprised you are high on Melky's, I wasnt so sure everyone was on the same page with that.

 

Paulie is going to need to be careful when he legs out those double's or does his usual first-to-third/2nd-to-home on a single. I don't think he is a lock to pull those off anymore.

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so um, can someone catch me up to speed? Is it true that twins intentions are too rebuild and have an awesome young competitive team by 2010 when their new stadium is built?

 

That is good for the short term, but we're f***ed in the long term, if we weren't already.

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