RME JICO Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 (edited) http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/...cago_white_sox/ The White Sox don't seem to have noticed it yet, but they're no longer even a heavy favorite to beat out the Royals for 4th place in the division. Like the team they beat in the World Series in 2005, the Astros, Kenny Williams and the rest of the Pale Hose seem to be looking at the team, hoping that if they squint hard enough, the team will look like 2005. The team will continue to suffer the next few years as a result of the organization not accurately assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the team during and after the 2006 season. Not much else to say - despite a few bright spots, this is a bad, old team, with a thin farm system (though not Astro-bad). Gio Gonzalez is one of the bright spots in the organization, but despite a solid 2007, the Met is an extreme pitcher's park in a very strong pitcher's league and Gonzalez would be best served with some serious time in the less hospitable Knights Stadium in Charlotte. Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS Jim Thome* dh 37 .253 .378 .487 111 372 63 94 15 0 24 81 72 115 0 1 Nick Swisher lf 27 .263 .375 .483 146 518 89 136 31 1 27 83 88 127 2 2 AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .280 .359 .487 ------------------------------------------ AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .279 .364 .468 ------------------------------------------ AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .278 .362 .469 ------------------------------------------ AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .276 .359 .460 ------------------------------------------ Paul Konerko 1b 32 .262 .347 .474 150 549 77 144 29 0 29 101 68 108 0 0 Jermaine Dye rf 34 .265 .334 .494 136 502 75 133 29 1 28 95 48 114 4 1 AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .273 .350 .432 ------------------------------------------ AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .278 .350 .421 ------------------------------------------ Josh Fields 3b 25 .259 .334 .451 149 541 66 140 28 2 24 87 61 157 11 6 Carlos Quentin lf 25 .249 .342 .428 132 418 62 104 30 3 13 60 36 79 4 3 AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .276 .342 .414 ------------------------------------------ AVERAGE C --------------- c ---- .262 .346 .410 ------------------------------------------ Joe Crede 3b 30 .263 .318 .438 113 395 50 104 21 0 16 61 27 50 0 1 Orlando Cabrera ss 33 .276 .330 .372 149 591 91 163 31 1 8 70 47 59 18 3 A.J. Pierzynski* c 31 .266 .311 .416 129 459 57 122 21 0 16 63 22 70 0 1 Juan Uribe ss 28 .250 .302 .427 149 511 64 128 25 1 21 76 35 94 3 7 Brian Anderson cf 26 .251 .313 .395 116 334 41 84 19 1 9 37 28 75 4 5 Jerry Owens* cf 27 .261 .325 .338 131 494 70 129 17 3 5 44 44 80 40 13 Danny Richar* 2b 25 .249 .304 .381 144 527 68 131 26 4 12 57 41 97 8 5 Scott Podsednik* lf 32 .262 .327 .345 96 362 56 95 20 2 2 33 31 62 29 13 Toby Hall c 32 .265 .300 .369 83 268 19 71 13 0 5 31 11 31 0 1 Pablo Ozuna lf 33 .271 .311 .349 60 166 22 45 8 1 1 15 7 18 8 4 _ _ Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K Bobby Jenks 27 3.21 5 2 69 0 73.0 62 26 6 26 73 Mike MacDougal 31 4.06 5 3 59 0 51.0 48 23 5 25 46 Javier Vazquez 31 4.07 13 9 31 31 201.0 200 91 26 50 172 Matt Thornton* 31 4.20 4 3 66 0 60.0 57 28 6 26 51 Ehren Wasserman 27 4.30 5 5 67 0 69.0 74 33 5 28 36 Mark Buehrle* 29 4.32 11 10 30 30 202.0 224 97 24 47 108 LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.51 ----------------------------------------------- Scott Linebrink 31 4.70 5 5 70 0 69.0 75 36 12 23 49 Jack Egbert 25 4.72 9 10 30 28 164.0 180 86 16 67 101 Jose Contreras 36 4.73 11 11 28 27 175.0 194 92 20 58 96 Boone Logan* 23 4.86 2 2 70 0 63.0 67 34 8 28 46 LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.90 ----------------------------------------------- Carlos Vasquez* 25 4.90 4 5 56 0 79.0 83 43 7 51 48 David Aardsma 26 5.08 4 4 63 0 78.0 78 44 13 35 70 Andrew Sisco* 25 5.64 3 5 59 7 83.0 86 52 13 51 73 Nick Masset 26 5.66 5 8 36 16 124.0 144 78 18 52 69 Gavin Floyd 25 5.87 6 10 29 26 161.0 189 105 29 69 98 John Danks* 23 5.90 7 13 28 28 151.0 169 99 33 56 121 Swisher added, Sweeney deleted. Edited January 3, 2008 by RME JICO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 look at that jerry owens power surge!!!! 5 HR!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Zelig Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 Are these projections for next year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearSox Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 The White Sox don't seem to have noticed it yet, but they're no longer even a heavy favorite to beat out the Royals for 4th place in the division. Like the team they beat in the World Series in 2005, the Astros, Kenny Williams and the rest of the Pale Hose seem to be looking at the team, hoping that if they squint hard enough, the team will look like 2005. The team will continue to suffer the next few years as a result of the organization not accurately assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the team during and after the 2006 season. Not much else to say - despite a few bright spots, this is a bad, old team, with a thin farm system (though not Astro-bad). Gio Gonzalez is one of the bright spots in the organization, but despite a solid 2007, the Met is an extreme pitcher's park in a very strong pitcher's league and Gonzalez would be best served with some serious time in the less hospitable Knights Stadium in Charlotte. Oh, it is now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maggsmaggs Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 If Eggy and Contreras could put up those numbers, I think we will contend because our O will score this year unlike last. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Zelig Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 QUOTE(maggsmaggs @ Jan 3, 2008 -> 03:00 PM) If Eggy and Contreras could put up those numbers, I think we will contend because our O will score this year unlike last. The Sox must have a lot of double headers scheduled to fit 193 games into next sesason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWSGuy406 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 QUOTE(Leonard Zelig @ Jan 3, 2008 -> 09:07 PM) The Sox must have a lot of double headers scheduled to fit 193 games into next sesason. Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scenario Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 (edited) I always enjoy seeing these numbers, but... what a bunch of crap. In 7 full season in MLB, Mark Buehrle has had a sub-4.00 ERA five times. So, how's he going to do next year? Oh... he'll have a 4.32 ERA and the second worst season of his career. Yeah. Sure. Alright. <_> Edited January 3, 2008 by scenario Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeynach Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 Zips projections are rough to figure out. They take into account pure statistics but fail to take into account things such as intagibles. For example for the projections for MB are always pretty poor due the inputs into his equation. Doesn't overpower, doesnt throw hard, doesnt strike out a lot of guys, does give up a lot of hits, plays half his games in a hitter friendly park. Given those inputs its no wonder his raw projection would take on something like 11-11 with a 4.3 ERA. Problem is we all know MARK knows how to pitch, hes knows how to get guys out without throwing 95, knows how to get guys out with them putting the ball in play, etc. That sort of stuff isn't taken into account in zips. Furthermore, unless a player has a really bad year he usually doesn't come that close to his Zips projections. In 2006 zips was way off in terms of Thome, Konerko, Dye, AJ, Crede, etc in most offensive categories, they all had very nice years. In 2007 most of them had down years and looked very similair to their Zip projections. My opinion on Zips is that is good for the younger less proven, less established players. Its good in giving us at least a ballpark of what to expect of the unknown; fields, quinten, egbert, wasserman, richar, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 (edited) QUOTE(scenario @ Jan 3, 2008 -> 04:28 PM) I always enjoy seeing these numbers, but... what a bunch of crap. In 7 full season in MLB, Mark Buehrle has had a sub-4.00 ERA five times. So, how's he going to do next year? Oh... he'll have a 4.32 ERA and the second worst season of his career. Yeah. Sure. Alright. <_> Projections generally aren't very nice to Buehrle. They don't take kindly to finesse pitchers. Player Spotlight - Mark Buehrle ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Optimistic (15%) 3.49 15 8 33 33 227 230 88 22 40 134 133 Mean 4.32 11 10 30 30 202 224 97 24 47 108 107 Pessimistic (15%) 5.38 7 11 25 25 159 198 95 23 43 74 86 He usually finishes better than the mean, and they throw this out there for you too. And he has essentially finished as bad as that pessimistic, as 2006 was really, really bad. Edited January 4, 2008 by witesoxfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxFan1 Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 You're telling me none of Konerko, Dye, Thome, Swisher, or Fields will hit 30 HR's next year? Yeah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 Well they're certainly bullish on Danks and Floyd aren't they. And if Linebrink put up that type of ERA, I don't think there would be many happy White Sox fans about that signing. Unfortunately, I think something around there is a real possibility (although maybe not THAT bad). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 If Fields doesnt hit 30 hr, ill eat my hat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 QUOTE(RockRaines @ Jan 4, 2008 -> 05:50 AM) If Fields doesnt hit 30 hr, ill eat my hat. seriously, he only hits 2 more HR in a full season? That'd throw me off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punch and Judy Garland Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 30 hr is hard. I'd be surprised if Fields hit that many. Second go around the league...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 Those are Swishers ZiPs in an Oakland Uniform though. Put him in a Sox uni, and his HR is sure to rise over 30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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