Anyone else going to Obama's Illinois victory rally tonight?

not in the weather tonight.

Something to keep an eye on today...

 

So far, the three states that have been contested in the Dem race are Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. What do they have in common? Geographically homogenous populations. No huge cities, no great divides between regions of the state. What that meant was, early returns were fairly indicative of the state as a whole.

 

Today? Won't be true. California is so huge and so diverse that you won't have a great feel for it until most of the results are in. States like IL, CO, NM and NY have populations that have heavily liberal urban centers and more conservative areas outside of them. So, when you see a state reporting 10% or 20%, check the areas counted, and take it with a grain of salt.

 

Obama +13???? WOW!!

SurveyUSA has Clinton up 10. So that's a 23 point spread between those 2.

You can watch MSNBC live by clicking the link on their homepage that says "Watch MSNBC TV's live coverage of Super Tuesday" along the top of the page.

And Balta's quoted poll will be the reality. Deal with it.

 

I'm guessing Hillary wins CA by about 3, NJ by 8, NY by 18, CT by 4 or 5.

If you aren't registered with a specific political party in Illinois, can you still participate in the primaries?

I think Obama pulls an upset in CA (if its even an upset at this point), and wins by 4. My predictions, just for fun...

 

CA: Obama +4 (192-178)

NY: Clinton +18 (137-95)

IL: Obama +30 (99-54)

NJ: Clinton +6 (57-50)

MA: Obama +2 (47-46)

GA: Obama +20 (52-35)

MN: Clinton +10 (40-32)

MO: Clinton +8 (39-33)

TN: Clinton +12 (38-30)

AZ: Clinton +4 (29-27)

CO: Obama +4 (29-26)

AL: Obama +10 (29-23)

CT: Clinton +2 (25-23)

OK: Clinton +18 (22-16)

AR: Clinton +28 (22-13)

KS: Obama +4 (17-15)

NM: Clinton +8 (15-13)

UT: Obama +18 (14-9)

ID: Obama +20 (11-7)

DE: Clinton +6 (8-7)

ND: Clinton +20 (8-5)

AK: Clinton +8 (7-6)

Samoa, Guam, Overseas: Obama +40 (7-3)

 

By my math, assuming that Edwards cannot get 15% anywhere now that he dropped out, that would make the pledged/voted delegate counts for the day:

 

Obama: 845

Clinton: 843

 

Add that to the already-pledged delegates from previous states, and the standings become:

 

Obama: 908

Clinton: 891

 

It doesn't get much closer than this!!!

 

If you aren't registered with a specific political party in Illinois, can you still participate in the primaries?

Illinois is an open primary, so, yes. Also, I am not even sure you CAN register a party in Illinois.

 

Illinois is an open primary, so, yes. Also, I am not even sure you CAN register a party in Illinois.

when i registered a few months ago, i dont recall there being an option on the registration form to choose a party.

Illinois is an open primary, so, yes. Also, I am not even sure you CAN register a party in Illinois.

 

I dug around for some more information and found this:

 

http://champcountyclerk.blogspot.com/2008/...ed-primary.html

 

You declare at the polls and then you are officially registered that way (it becomes public record). You can change at the polls on the day of the election though, so it'll just change what political mailers they send you in between elections.

 

I'll be heading to the polls after work. Lucky for me, the polling place is about 200 ft. from my door!

Edited February 5, 200818 yr by StrangeSox

Something to keep an eye on today...

 

So far, the three states that have been contested in the Dem race are Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. What do they have in common? Geographically homogenous populations. No huge cities, no great divides between regions of the state. What that meant was, early returns were fairly indicative of the state as a whole.

 

Today? Won't be true. California is so huge and so diverse that you won't have a great feel for it until most of the results are in. States like IL, CO, NM and NY have populations that have heavily liberal urban centers and more conservative areas outside of them. So, when you see a state reporting 10% or 20%, check the areas counted, and take it with a grain of salt.

 

As far as Iowa goes, wouldn't you more or less tend to say that the western part of the state is a LOT more conservative than the eastern parts....

I think Obama pulls an upset in CA (if its even an upset at this point), and wins by 4. My predictions, just for fun...

those are very similar to my projections as well.

Can I vote today in the democratic primary even though I'm not a registered democrat?

Can I vote today in the democratic primary even though I'm not a registered democrat?

 

Yes you can in Illinois.

 

In Illinois as long as you are registered to vote you can vote. When you go in, they will ask you to declare your party. You will be given a ballot for that party only and then you can vote. The only thing this does is that the party you choose becomes part of the election record. So down the road the democratic or republican party can pull the precinct sheets to see what you affiliate yourself with, so they can either target, debate or ignore you for campaign literature. Growing up I did a lot of work for the Democratic party in Chicago and spent a lot of time pulling those sheets for going door to door, and putting signs out. I have voted most of my young adult life as a democrat, and have moved over to republican as I have gotten older(crazier ), there was no process. Just show up, have them pull your signature card, write what party you want to vote for, and sign your name.

 

 

 

 

 

Can I vote today in the democratic primary even though I'm not a registered democrat?

I did and I'm not.

Huckabee wins West Virginia, and all 18 delegates with it. He won 52% of the delegates in the convention-style event, Romney 47%, and McCain 1%.

 

Huckabee wins West Virginia, and all 18 delegates with it. He won 52% of the delegates in the convention-style event, Romney 47%, and McCain 1%.

They held a caucus in the middle of the day? I find that to be odd.

Huckabee wins West Virginia, and all 18 delegates with it. He won 52% of the delegates in the convention-style event, Romney 47%, and McCain 1%.

FWIW, Romney had a lead on the first ballot but not a majority, and on the 2nd ballot, the McCain folks all threw their votes to Huckabee to prevent a Romney win.

FWIW, Romney had a lead on the first ballot but not a majority, and on the 2nd ballot, the McCain folks all threw their votes to Huckabee to prevent a Romney win.

Wow. Now that's what I call a c0ckblock. Pardon my French.

FWIW, Romney had a lead on the first ballot but not a majority, and on the 2nd ballot, the McCain folks all threw their votes to Huckabee to prevent a Romney win.

 

 

that's way too smart for W. VA.

Romney camp issues a bitter response regarding West Virginia. No links yet. Heard it live on MSNBC.

 

 

Romney camp issues a bitter response regarding West Virginia. No links yet. Heard it live on MSNBC.

 

Romney on Dole:

 

Romney on Dole (a little later):

Mitt Romney, the most consistent man in politics.

 

The phrase "death spiral" comes to mind.

 

I think the GOP race may be virtually over after today. McCain looks like he will be winning pretty big, and Huckabee seems to be more in McCain's camp as well.

 

The phrase "death spiral" comes to mind.

 

I think the GOP race may be virtually over after today. McCain looks like he will be winning pretty big, and Huckabee seems to be more in McCain's camp as well.

make sure to enable html in your response if you want to show video.

Although the number of delegates amounts to very little relevance (if any), that's not a good sign to start the day for Romney. I give credit to the McCain people in West Virginia though, that was a brilliant tactical ploy.