The Republican Thread

[greg775]

lol. It's not an out - it doesn't even make sense. He's continuing to get bashed for it, and rightly so. ...and do you even know what an alibi is?

I think it's already died down. He said he didn't mean what the deviants say he meant. Perfect job by Trump. He'll ultimately be thrust out of the race but not over this issue. he survived it easily.

[StrangeSox]

He said he didn't mean what the deviants say he meant.

 

So what? You'd have to be especially gullible to believe him.

[cabiness42]

So what? You'd have to be especially gullible to believe him.

 

Almost as gullible as you would need to be to believe anything Hillary says.

[CrimsonWeltall]

I think it's already died down. He said he didn't mean what the deviants say he meant.

 

And he's obviously lying. Do you not get that part?

 

He'll ultimately be thrust out of the race but not over this issue. he survived it easily.

 

In a sense, you're right. Donald Trump could say virtually anything, no matter how stupid, dishonest, or rude, and his support would probably stay about the same. That's the benefit of appealing to idiots. Sadly for Trump, most conservatives aren't idiots and he has no chance.

[greg775]

And he's obviously lying. Do you not get that part?

 

 

 

In a sense, you're right. Donald Trump could say virtually anything, no matter how stupid, dishonest, or rude, and his support would probably stay about the same. That's the benefit of appealing to idiots. Sadly for Trump, most conservatives aren't idiots and he has no chance.

Be careful. You can't call me an idiot and get away with that.

[NorthSideSox72]

Watched the first 2/3 of the debate or so. Quick impressions...

 

--Nothing to add on Trump. As is clear to nearly everyone, he isn't a President and can't win a general election. Heck, once the field thins, he can't win the GOP nomination either. Thankfully.

 

--I wanted to like Kasich, because I think he's got some good ideas and my policy views are closest to his. But he failed to answer most questions, and he clearly doesn't have the charisma to win anyway.

 

--Huckabee was an odd duality. His views are so far right, especially on social issues, that he's scary policy-wise. Plus I get the feeling he isn't in it to win anyway. But oddly enough, he came off as the nicest guy on that stage, and had the easiest tone.

 

--Rand Paul is just smarmy. That grin will destroy any chance he has. He's maverick in a few specific policy areas, which is good to have in the debate, but he isn't electable.

 

--Chris Christie did fairly well, though his 9/11 flag raising was chintzy and hollow. I like to think his weight won't matter, as it shouldn't, but I'm fairly sure it will.

 

--Dr Carson is very charismatic, and did a nice job slicing right through a lot of the non-answers from other candidates. Good sense of humor too. It's a shame he's on that same extreme right on social issues that Huckabee is on, or I might like the guy enough to think about him.

 

--Jeb Bush seemed... not very bright. I mean that relatively of course - none on that stage are actually dumb of course. But in that crowd, he wears the dunce hat. That said, sadly, he's the most electable of the group. He may also end up being the most moderate, which is good. But dammit I don't want another Clinton or Bush.

 

--Ted Cruz is frightening. Same lack of any desire to govern, similar to Trump but with slightly more filter. Couldn't possibly win a general election.

 

Basically, the only guys in that field with any chance to win the general (IMO) are Bush, Kasich and, oddly enough, Ben Carson. Just my view. As far as who I like best from the field, none really jump out, but I'd lean towards Kasich, even though he can't win the nomination (that's right - he can't win the primaries, but could win a general potentially).

 

Now I need to dig into the "other 7" and see what I can learn.

 

[StrangeSox]

Rick Perry's fundraising has dried up, and he's no longer able to keep paying staffers. He may be packing it in soon as Trump continues to suck up all of the energy and attention.

[Balta1701]

Rick Perry's fundraising has dried up, and he's no longer able to keep paying staffers. He may be packing it in soon as Trump continues to suck up all of the energy and attention.

His SuperPAC is still flush with >tens of millions of dollars.

[farmteam]

Watched the first 2/3 of the debate or so. Quick impressions...

 

--Nothing to add on Trump. As is clear to nearly everyone, he isn't a President and can't win a general election. Heck, once the field thins, he can't win the GOP nomination either. Thankfully.

 

--I wanted to like Kasich, because I think he's got some good ideas and my policy views are closest to his. But he failed to answer most questions, and he clearly doesn't have the charisma to win anyway.

 

--Huckabee was an odd duality. His views are so far right, especially on social issues, that he's scary policy-wise. Plus I get the feeling he isn't in it to win anyway. But oddly enough, he came off as the nicest guy on that stage, and had the easiest tone.

 

--Rand Paul is just smarmy. That grin will destroy any chance he has. He's maverick in a few specific policy areas, which is good to have in the debate, but he isn't electable.

 

--Chris Christie did fairly well, though his 9/11 flag raising was chintzy and hollow. I like to think his weight won't matter, as it shouldn't, but I'm fairly sure it will.

 

--Dr Carson is very charismatic, and did a nice job slicing right through a lot of the non-answers from other candidates. Good sense of humor too. It's a shame he's on that same extreme right on social issues that Huckabee is on, or I might like the guy enough to think about him.

 

--Jeb Bush seemed... not very bright. I mean that relatively of course - none on that stage are actually dumb of course. But in that crowd, he wears the dunce hat. That said, sadly, he's the most electable of the group. He may also end up being the most moderate, which is good. But dammit I don't want another Clinton or Bush.

 

--Ted Cruz is frightening. Same lack of any desire to govern, similar to Trump but with slightly more filter. Couldn't possibly win a general election.

 

Basically, the only guys in that field with any chance to win the general (IMO) are Bush, Kasich and, oddly enough, Ben Carson. Just my view. As far as who I like best from the field, none really jump out, but I'd lean towards Kasich, even though he can't win the nomination (that's right - he can't win the primaries, but could win a general potentially).

 

Now I need to dig into the "other 7" and see what I can learn.

I still see Rubio as the dark horse in this thing. Not probable, but also not inconceivable that he's the GOP nominee.

[caulfield12]

Supposedly Fiorina, Cruz and Carson jumped the most in one of the first post-debate polls. Trump somehow went up a point to 23 and is still 10 points clear of everyone else.

 

Of course, those three, along with Trump, are your basic "outsider/anti-establishment" types.

 

Walker and Bush fell back into the pack. Rubio held his ground.

 

 

Of course, with Trump losing his top advisor and no clue how to run an actual ground game in Iowa, NH and SC, it's still possible he's leading four months from now but it would be pretty shocking.

 

 

Edited August 11, 2015 by caulfield12

[NorthSideSox72]

I still see Rubio as the dark horse in this thing. Not probable, but also not inconceivable that he's the GOP nominee.

Oy, forgot Rubio! He was one of the best of them in this debate, though he's a little stiff and rehearsed. That can change over time though. He's also potentially electable in the general.

 

Also forgot Walker, but honestly I think he'll drop like a rock. Comes off like a puppet.

 

[Jake]

Rubio has a quality that is hard to teach: his general manner doesn't reek of a crazy person. This is an important quality, because people are going to forget almost everything that you say, but they'll still have a general impression of you.

[farmteam]

Rubio has a quality that is hard to teach: his general manner doesn't reek of a crazy person.

I hadn't thought of it that way, but that's so true.

[NorthSideSox72]

Rubio has a quality that is hard to teach: his general manner doesn't reek of a crazy person. This is an important quality, because people are going to forget almost everything that you say, but they'll still have a general impression of you.

I'd say most of the 10 who were in the debate don't reek of a crazy person. Trump does, Cruz does. Because they are. But I don't get that vibe from any of the others.

 

[caulfield12]

https://www.yahoo.com/politics/the-myth-of-...6536356526.html

 

The myth of Trump's angry legions.

[southsider2k5]

https://www.yahoo.com/politics/the-myth-of-...6536356526.html

 

Democrats and liberal commentators love the Trump story. It underscores, at a glance, how twisted with bile and bigotry the Republican Party must be. The guy excoriates Mexicans and manages to make Megyn Kelly look sympathetic, and still he’s ahead! What does that tell you?

 

Maybe not as much as you think.

 

Yes, there’s a sizable segment of enraged voters in the GOP — and on the left, for that matter. The angry vote is a fixture of the modern political landscape and has been, more or less, since at least the 1970s.

 

But Trumpmania may be telling us a lot less about the dominant mood in the electorate at large than we think. As one of the more astute liberal bloggers, Mother Jones’ Kevin Drum, points out, Trump has been drawing the support of less than a quarter of Republican primary voters, who in turn make up less than a quarter of the voting public.

[StrangeSox]

It tells us about Republican primary voters and who may ultimately get the nomination and what they might have to do/say on their way. The underlying story being presented is sort of the opposite of what Matt Bai thinks it is. It's not that the entirety of the Republican party backs Trump or what he's saying or that a majority of the general population does. But there is minority of Republican voters who lap up his "gives no f***s" attitude, the nativism, the sexism, the racism, and that may be influential enough in the primary season that it will damage the Republican (whoever he ends up being) in the general election by forcing them to tack hard to the right.

 

The "both sides!" without any actual examples is a nice touch, though. Matt Bai is pretty consistently wrong, such as when he predicted that Jon Hunstman would eventually be the reasonable, aspiring politician that would be the Republican nominee in 2012.

[EvilMonkey]

Most of Trump's support will go away fast. I know people who are having fun with this, but who would never actually vote for him. I think the rest of the field should take note, however, that there is a sizable chunk of voters that want them to speak up. They don't have to be so un-PC about it, but they don't have to walk on eggshells either. Talk about border security. Stop being afraid of being called a racist.

[EvilMonkey]

It tells us about Republican primary voters and who may ultimately get the nomination and what they might have to do/say on their way. The underlying story being presented is sort of the opposite of what Matt Bai thinks it is. It's not that the entirety of the Republican party backs Trump or what he's saying or that a majority of the general population does. But there is minority of Republican voters who lap up his "gives no f***s" attitude, the nativism, the sexism, the racism, and that may be influential enough in the primary season that it will damage the Republican (whoever he ends up being) in the general election by forcing them to tack hard to the right.

 

The "both sides!" without any actual examples is a nice touch, though. Matt Bai is pretty consistently wrong, such as when he predicted that Jon Hunstman would eventually be the reasonable, aspiring politician that would be the Republican nominee in 2012.

Because we all know that there are no crazies on the Democrat side.

[StrangeSox]

There really hasn't been the same sort of clown show on the Democrat side that was the 2012 Republican primaries (Bachmann, Cain, insert-flavor-of-the-week) or how this year's is starting out for them again (trump, mainly).

 

edit: whether or not you agree with the story some are putting forth regarding what Trump represents, Matt Bai still misstates (or misunderstands) what other people are actually saying about him.

Edited August 13, 2015 by StrangeSox

[Jenksismyhero]

There really hasn't been the same sort of clown show on the Democrat side that was the 2012 Republican primaries (Bachmann, Cain, insert-flavor-of-the-week) or how this year's is starting out for them again (trump, mainly).

 

edit: whether or not you agree with the story some are putting forth regarding what Trump represents, Matt Bai still misstates (or misunderstands) what other people are actually saying about him.

 

Um, John Edwards? Joe Biden? Dennis Kucinich?

 

They've all sad stupid things, repeatedly. It just doesn't get the play.

[StrangeSox]

Saying stupid things and leading the primary polling aren't the same thing. Yeah, Kucinich was an oddball, but he was always an also-ran who never really came close. They do not really compare to the level of support and vacuousness that Bachmann, Cain, Trump etc. have.

[caulfield12]

Um, John Edwards? Joe Biden? Dennis Kucinich?

 

They've all sad stupid things, repeatedly. It just doesn't get the play.

 

Harold Dean would be a better example.

 

Sanders has said many outlandish things as well.

 

 

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/female-vp-tr...-174100879.html

One way for Trump to counterbalance the feminist backlash...guaranteeing a woman would be his VP candidate.

 

Mentions Susana Martinez, Joni Ernst, Ayotte, Nikki Haley, C. Rice and even Oprah.

 

Fiorina might be a good choice, but then he would have to walk back last week's comments ripping her...Palin, Meg Whitman two other possibilities, although Palin's 15 minutes of fame are fading finally.

Edited August 13, 2015 by caulfield12

[Jenksismyhero]

Saying stupid things and leading the primary polling aren't the same thing. Yeah, Kucinich was an oddball, but he was always an also-ran who never really came close. They do not really compare to the level of support and vacuousness that Bachmann, Cain, Trump etc. have.

 

They didn't have a legacy candidate like Hillary though. Get her name recognition out of there, have a clean slate of basically unknown national candidates and the situation is much more similar.

[caulfield12]

They didn't have a legacy candidate like Hillary though. Get her name recognition out of there, have a clean slate of basically unknown national candidates and the situation is much more similar.

 

What is Bush?

 

He's sitting on a pile of $110+ million in fundraising dollars and yet still no idea how to run or manage a semi-effective national primary campaign.