Danks

[Jordan4life_2007]

Then take his services for the 2 years then the draft picks. If the Sox traded him for prospects they would IMO, turn out like the prospects the Marlins got for Cabrera. We know nothing about the negotiations, just whats assumed. He turned down the deal Floyd accepted so many take that to mean he wants out. I think it just means he was willing to roll the dice to make some more cash and it looks like it will work. We do have a report the Sox are making signing him a priority. I hope he signs, but if he doesn't, unless its a can't say no deal, I think the 2 years you get to work something out, assuming something about the White Sox or the city isn't really pissing him off, may be enough to get a deal done.

 

If you can't get a worthy package right now or going into next season, I agree. But if a team can woo you right now, you'd be foolish to wait for 2013 draft picks that wouldn't be ready to go by 2015 at the earliest.

Edited November 21, 2010 by Jordan4life

[Jordan4life_2007]

1.9-3.1, Danks walks about 1 more batter per start.

 

1.9 and 3.1 is a big difference.

[gatnom]

1.9-3.1, Danks walks about 1 more batter per start.

 

Or, in other words, 63% more.

[witesoxfan]

Yeah, now compare their walk rates.

 

And those people who feel that Danks doesn't throw enough innings (he does), it's because of his control. Halladay has thrown 34 complete games over the past 4 years, which comprises more than 26.4% of his games started and that's simply because he's very efficient with his pitches and he gets a ton of ground balls which will in turn help eliminate any base runners that he's allowed through double plays.

 

That's actually brings up another point...Danks isn't a flyball pitcher by any means, but he could induce more ground ball outs. In fact, there are a lot of things Danks could improve on.

 

He is a great starting pitcher, he is very valuable to the Sox (and the rest of the league), but he is not elite. He may very well be the White Sox' best starting pitcher, but the other guys aren't far behind him either. If he won't sign an extension (and I have to imagine they are gauging his interest on that matter this offseason), then dealing him while the return is the highest makes sense.

[Dick Allen]

Or, in other words, 63% more.

1.2 walks per 9 innings. 1 extra walk a start. So you are saying if Danks cuts 1 walk a start he can be an ace. That's fine. I personally don't think thats a crazy thing to accomplish. And besides, that's Roy Halladay, probably the ace of aces. Danks will be 26 next season. His best seasons are coming.

Edited November 21, 2010 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

1.2 walks per 9 innings. 1 extra walk a start. So you are saying if Danks cuts 1 walk a start he can be an ace. That's fine. I personally don't think thats a crazy thing to accomplish.

FWIW, 1.2 BB per 9 innings = .133333 walks/IP. Therefore, for Danks, dropping that 1.2 BB/9 IP would last year have brought his WHIP down from 1.22 to 1.08. That's a pretty decent improvement required there.

[witesoxfan]

1.9-3.1, Danks walks about 1 more batter per start.

 

Over 225 innings...

 

1.9 BB/9 = 47-48 walks

3.1 BB/9 = 77-78 walks

 

You are talking about the difference of 30 base runners. If we assume that about 25% of baserunners score, that's 7-8 more runs per year that Danks will allow, and that's not including the increased chances opponents then have of hitting the ball out of the park.

 

Beyond all of that, that includes Halladay's first 3 years in the majors where he was pretty terrible. Over the past 10 years, Halladay has walked 1.6 BB/9; past 6, it's 1.4; past 3 it's 1.3. 1.3 BB/9 over 225 innings is equal to 32-33 additional baserunners.

 

They aren't similar at all. That's like saying the difference between a guy who hit .300 and one who hit .275 is only 15 hits, which is only 3 more hits a month, which is one more hit every 10 games. It's still a pretty big deal.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Over 225 innings...

 

1.9 BB/9 = 47-48 walks

3.1 BB/9 = 77-78 walks

 

You are talking about the difference of 30 base runners. If we assume that about 25% of baserunners score, that's 7-8 more runs per year that Danks will allow, and that's not including the increased chances opponents then have of hitting the ball out of the park.

 

Beyond all of that, that includes Halladay's first 3 years in the majors where he was pretty terrible. Over the past 10 years, Halladay has walked 1.6 BB/9; past 6, it's 1.4; past 3 it's 1.3. 1.3 BB/9 over 225 innings is equal to 32-33 additional baserunners.

 

They aren't similar at all. That's like saying the difference between a guy who hit .300 and one who hit .275 is only 15 hits, which is only 3 more hits a month, which is one more hit every 10 games. It's still a pretty big deal.

 

Did you stop drinking? You're a lot smarter of late. Not that you were dumb before, well kinda. But I say that with love.

[3E8]

1.2 walks per 9 innings. 1 extra walk a start. So you are saying if Danks cuts 1 walk a start he can be an ace. That's fine. I personally don't think thats a crazy thing to accomplish.

It is a crazy thing to accomplish. You're thinking about it too simplistically. Because of the walk rate Danks is already at, one less walk per start would mean he would need to cut his yearly BB total nearly in half. That's no easy feat.

[southsider2k5]

I admire your persistence. But I don't think you get it. Nobody really wants to trade Danks. But if he's determined to test the FA market, there's really no other alternative. We will NEVER be able to outbid either NY team or Boston. And you can bet those 3 teams will be lining up to sign him come offseason '12.

 

And you can also bet that teams will line up with guys that will be worth more than two first round draft picks to get two years of Danks (at least).

[Jordan4life_2007]

And you can also bet that teams will line up with guys that will be worth more than two first round draft picks to get two years of Danks (at least).

 

I agree. Danks is a unique case under the KW regime. We've never really had a player that I can remember that was as young, good, with potential upside as Danks just a couple years from FA. KW cannot f*** this up. Either get an extension done or pull in a nice haul. I'm sure that's easier said than done. But that's why he's the GM.

[witesoxfan]

And you can also bet that teams will line up with guys that will be worth more than two first round draft picks to get two years of Danks (at least).

 

That you will also receive way before you get the draft picks who are almost certainly far more seasoned (and thus, far less likely to bust) than 2 draft picks.

 

Legitimately, if Danks isn't interested in signing an extension, you should trade him. I would say you look for an outfielder with power, a pitcher, and then one additional player, be it a toolsy hitter or an arm that needs harnessing. You could potentially look for a catcher too, but it would have to be a damn good catching prospect.

Edited November 22, 2010 by witesoxfan

[southsider2k5]

I agree. Danks is a unique case under the KW regime. We've never really had a player that I can remember that was as young, good, with potential upside as Danks just a couple years from FA. KW cannot f*** this up. Either get an extension done or pull in a nice haul. I'm sure that's easier said than done. But that's why he's the GM.

 

Not as a pitcher anyway. We blew it with Maggs and ended up losing him for nothing. Buehrle we ended up extending a couple of times. I can't think of anyone else close.

[southsider2k5]

That you will also receive way before you get the draft picks who are almost certainly far more seasoned (and thus, far less likely to bust) than 2 draft picks.

 

Legitimately, if Danks isn't interested in signing an extension, you should trade him. I would say you look for an outfielder with power, a pitcher, and then one additional player, be it a toolsy hitter or an arm that needs harnessing. You could potentially look for a catcher too, but it would have to be a damn good catching prospect.

 

That is the other part that scares me about letting someone walkaway and depending on the draft. We seem to scout other systems better than we scout draft picks in the 20's or higher. I'd also view it as playing to our strengths. If we had a history of draft and development that would be one thing, but we don't really. It has gotten better, but still not enough to bet a John Danks on.

[witesoxfan]

That is the other part that scares me about letting someone walkaway and depending on the draft. We seem to scout other systems better than we scout draft picks in the 20's or higher. I'd also view it as playing to our strengths. If we had a history of draft and development that would be one thing, but we don't really. It has gotten better, but still not enough to bet a John Danks on.

 

The best or notable White Sox picks of the decade (in the 1st or sandwich round) were Gordon Beckham, Aaron Rowand, Kip Wells, Gio Gonzalez, Josh Fields, and, like, Brian Anderson, so yeah, I think if the Sox continue to let other teams draft guys, that'd be just fine with me.

[Dick Allen]

That is the other part that scares me about letting someone walkaway and depending on the draft. We seem to scout other systems better than we scout draft picks in the 20's or higher. I'd also view it as playing to our strengths. If we had a history of draft and development that would be one thing, but we don't really. It has gotten better, but still not enough to bet a John Danks on.

And guys like Jeff Marquez and Tyler Flowers are, not to mention the year or 2 you don't have Danks' services?

[Dick Allen]

Not as a pitcher anyway. We blew it with Maggs and ended up losing him for nothing. Buehrle we ended up extending a couple of times. I can't think of anyone else close.

If Maggs didn't get hurt and the Sox won a championship with him, I'm sure everyone would be happy they didn't trade him for prospects 2 years before he became a free agent and just kept him. No one is complaining they didn't trade

Konerko. If the Sox didn't take him all the way to the end of his contract in 2005, the possibility of no WS championship is pretty strong.

[southsider2k5]

And guys like Jeff Marquez and Tyler Flowers are, not to mention the year or 2 you don't have Danks' services?

 

The irony is that John Danks is the best argument for the Sox scouting other teams talent.

[southsider2k5]

If Maggs didn't get hurt and the Sox won a championship with him, I'm sure everyone would be happy they didn't trade him for prospects 2 years before he became a free agent and just kept him. No one is complaining they didn't trade

Konerko. If the Sox didn't take him all the way to the end of his contract in 2005, the possibility of no WS championship is pretty strong.

 

The Sox let their best offensive player leave, and they still won a title without him. That isn't an "if". He wasn't there in 2005. He left after 2004. Even the post injury 2005 numbers he put up were the worse of any year he has had all of the way back to his second year in the league. Even his most recent years weren't as bad as his 2005 with Detroit.

[witesoxfan]

And guys like Jeff Marquez and Tyler Flowers are, not to mention the year or 2 you don't have Danks' services?

 

If John Danks puts bats around a blow up doll and probably two in her orifices, then chokes down the stretch and talks about how he just wants to be close to home, then sure, you can make this argument.

 

You are comparing apples to oranges and you know it. Neither Swisher nor Vazquez could be here any longer, as they'd long worn out their welcome. If the Sox don't get the offer they want for Danks, they can just keep him and let him throw the s*** out of the ball some more too. Williams has the most leverage in trade negotiations.

 

You sound really bitter about the possibility of moving Danks, and you've made it seem as though no matter what the Sox do in regards to moving Danks, it's not going to work out. I mean, as ss2k mentioned, just as they are likely to get Marquez or Flowers (who you are labeling a bust after one down year in AAA, which I don't believe is correct), they are just as likely to get John Danks or Gavin Floyd. Seriously, would Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez look like a bad return for John Danks right now?

[witesoxfan]

If Maggs didn't get hurt and the Sox won a championship with him, I'm sure everyone would be happy they didn't trade him for prospects 2 years before he became a free agent and just kept him. No one is complaining they didn't trade

Konerko. If the Sox didn't take him all the way to the end of his contract in 2005, the possibility of no WS championship is pretty strong.

 

Who would the White Sox have replaced Konerko with? As of right now, the White Sox can replace Danks in the rotation with Sale, Pena, any of the players they acquire for Danks, or a free agent signing. They can't do the same thing with Konerko. If they had Ryan Howard waiting in the minors, I'm sure more people would have been advocating it.

 

Beyond that, there have always been people who have wanted to trade Paulie, be it due to struggles or being mediocre for 1B or because he has money that can be freed up.

[Dick Allen]

Who would the White Sox have replaced Konerko with? As of right now, the White Sox can replace Danks in the rotation with Sale, Pena, any of the players they acquire for Danks, or a free agent signing. They can't do the same thing with Konerko. If they had Ryan Howard waiting in the minors, I'm sure more people would have been advocating it.

 

Beyond that, there have always been people who have wanted to trade Paulie, be it due to struggles or being mediocre for 1B or because he has money that can be freed up.

They could have replaced Konerko with someone with a better track record as a hitter and firstbaseman than the track record of major league starter Sale and Pena bring to the table. Couldn't they replace him with the players they would have acquired for him or a free agent signing? Back then teams paid up for guys one year from free agency and Paulie was huge in 2004.

 

If you're trying to compare Pena and Sale as pitchers to Ryan Howard as a hitter, Keyshon Johnson says, "C'mon man."

Edited November 22, 2010 by Dick Allen

[Dick Allen]

The Sox let their best offensive player leave, and they still won a title without him. That isn't an "if". He wasn't there in 2005. He left after 2004. Even the post injury 2005 numbers he put up were the worse of any year he has had all of the way back to his second year in the league. Even his most recent years weren't as bad as his 2005 with Detroit.

I know when Maggs left, but if the Sox won it all in 2004 you wouldn't have said didly about getting something for Magglio. Besides, the Sox got crap for him. No players, no draft picks and somehow still managed to win the WS. If I was in charge, and Danks said no way he's re-signing, I'm still rolling the dice with him unless its a deal you just can't say no. Why not let their best pitcher leave, and grab the draft picks? Why do the White Sox have to operate like a second division team? Then you can use the money you would have allocated to him on other parts, so ie, you get 2 draft picks plus some established players plus 2 more years of John Danks in the rotation pitching for a payday. Not a bad deal at all.

Edited November 22, 2010 by Dick Allen

[iamshack]

I know when Maggs left, but if the Sox won it all in 2004 you wouldn't have said didly about getting something for Magglio. Besides, the Sox got crap for him. No players, no draft picks and somehow still managed to win the WS. If I was in charge, and Danks said no way he's re-signing, I'm still rolling the dice with him unless its a deal you just can't say no. Why not let their best pitcher leave, and grab the draft picks? Why do the White Sox have to operate like a second division team? Then you can use the money you would have allocated to him on other parts, so ie, you get 2 draft picks plus some established players plus 2 more years of John Danks in the rotation pitching for a payday. Not a bad deal at all.

 

It's not about operating like a "second division" team. It's about the most efficient allocation of your resources. If that means trading out of an asset before it's value begins decreasing, then you do so. The White Sox will determine what the chances are of signing Danks to an extension and at what cost, what possible assets Danks could bring in a trade, and what kind of performance they project over the next two years and whether that performance, along with two draft picks, is more efficient than the other two courses of action.

[southsider2k5]

I know when Maggs left, but if the Sox won it all in 2004 you wouldn't have said didly about getting something for Magglio. Besides, the Sox got crap for him. No players, no draft picks and somehow still managed to win the WS. If I was in charge, and Danks said no way he's re-signing, I'm still rolling the dice with him unless its a deal you just can't say no. Why not let their best pitcher leave, and grab the draft picks? Why do the White Sox have to operate like a second division team? Then you can use the money you would have allocated to him on other parts, so ie, you get 2 draft picks plus some established players plus 2 more years of John Danks in the rotation pitching for a payday. Not a bad deal at all.

 

So who did the Sox draft after Magglio left, and how did they outweigh what they could have gotten for him pre-injury? The premise of "if they win in 2004" is the whole point. They didn't win. And at the end of the day the Sox aren't operating like a "second division" team. They have been consistently at the top third of ML payrolls. But that doesn't mean they still don't have salary considerations. We as an organization still have to make decisions that not only involve talent, but dollars.