The official Winter Meetings trade idea thread

[scenario]

Didn't say he was a 4A washout. But 15 million? We all love Mark because we're Sox fans and he's been here for what seems like an eternity. But nobody in their right mind would take him with that kicker and those peripherals at his age. Not unless we sent a TON of cash with him. Like at least 8-9 million.

 

I'm not accusing you of calling him a 4A washout... I'm suggesting that his peripherals don't mean s*** when determining his value.

 

This is the same reason that every single year the saber projection world predicts that Buerhle is going to have a career worst year... that with the exception of one season never even comes close to being true.

 

If it fails miserably 90% of the time for predicting his performance, how valid is it for establishing his value? Answer.... it isn't.

 

The market would value him much higher than stats would suggest.

Edited December 5, 2010 by scenario

[Jordan4life_2007]

I'm not accusing you of calling him a 4A washout... I'm suggesting that his peripherals don't mean s*** when determining his value.

 

This is the same reason that every single year the saber projection world predicts that Buerhle is going to have a career worst year... that with the exception of one season never even comes close to being true.

 

If it fails miserably 90% of the time for predicting his performance, how valid is it for establishing his value? Answer.... it isn't.

 

The market would value him much higher than stats would suggest.

 

I respect your opinion. But I wouldn't pay 2005 Mark Buehrle 15 million let alone 2011-2012 Mark Buehrle that much.

[knightni]

Buehrle is easily worth more than 10 million in jersey revenue and PR alone.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Buehrle is easily worth more than 10 million in jersey revenue and PR alone.

 

To the Sox? Maybe. To any other team? Not a chance.

[knightni]

To the Sox? Maybe. To any other team? Not a chance.

He's like the Sox version of Jeter.

[Leonard Zelig]

Pretty sure the jersey sales are part of the profit sharing.

Edited December 5, 2010 by Leonard Zelig

[knightni]

Pretty sure the jersey sales are part of the profit sharing.

It was hyperbolic.

[TomPickle]

Quentin and Viciedo for BJ Upton

[elrockinMT]

He's 29, will be getting expensive in the next few years.

 

 

That's the thinking of second tier teams

[pktmotion]

Quentin and Viciedo for BJ Upton

 

I like that trade.

 

My only concern is how Upton is progressively striking out more every season and if we have the right personnel (Walker) to correct this.

 

He's got great speed, solid defense, still young, its just those strikeouts that are killing his average.

[striker]

Viciedo + Teahen for Carlos Beltran + $7m

[knightni]

Where would the Mets play Viciedo?

 

They have Wright at 3rd and Davis at 1st.

[JPN366]

I agree.

 

Edwin Jackson and Tyler Kuhn for Matt Kemp.

 

Carlos Quentin for Homer Bailey and Daniel Ray Herrera

 

I love Tyler Kuhn, he was my favorite Barons player this year and I think he could be a gritty utility guy in the future. But, WTF?

[JPN366]

Mark Teahen and Jhonny Nunez for Sergio Romo and Pablo Sandoval.

[knightni]

Can Panda even play 3rd anymore?

[ThunderBolt]

Quentin and Viciedo for BJ Upton

I adore this trade. Our OF defense would be insane and Upton's skillset would make him a weapon at the Cell.

[macsandz]

I adore this trade. Our OF defense would be insane and Upton's skillset would make him a weapon at the Cell.

CQ/Tank would be an overpay. Upton's defense appears to have fallen off. He has been below-average on defense, according to UZR/150 that suggests Upton was better than average in 2008-09. Even though his strikeout and walk rates are similar to his career averages, Pitch f/x data shows that Upton is swinging at more pitches than ever, especially ones out of the strike zone.

 

 

[macsandz]

Can Panda even play 3rd anymore?

 

Not very well.

[Wanne]

CQ/Tank would be an overpay. Upton's defense appears to have fallen off. He has been below-average on defense, according to UZR/150 that suggests Upton was better than average in 2008-09. Even though his strikeout and walk rates are similar to his career averages, Pitch f/x data shows that Upton is swinging at more pitches than ever, especially ones out of the strike zone.

 

I don't know...seems to me Upton is one of those guys that SORELY needs a change of scenery much like Rios did. He's pretty young and I think his best years would be ahead of him.

[Balta1701]

I don't know...seems to me Upton is one of those guys that SORELY needs a change of scenery much like Rios did. He's pretty young and I think his best years would be ahead of him.

The problem with Upton is in his stats. He's Adam Dunn-like in his strikeouts, but he's not Dunn-like in his power. He's going to strike out 150+ times a year. IF you hit 1 out of every 10 balls you touch out of the ballpark, you'll still put up overall decent numbers, but if you can't do that, you're going to run into that BABIP wall. If you're striking out that much you clearly don't have great bat control, and so there's only so much you can do unless you can knock down the strikeouts.

 

Literally, this is the kind of player his is always going to be, unless either you can push him up to 35+ HR power, or you totally rework his swing to cut him down to 120 or fewer strikeouts.

[rackemup]

Quentin and Viciedo for BJ Upton

throw on whatever else they want and replace Upton with Ichiro.

[TomPickle]

I don't see why the Mariners would want Viciedo when they've got Smoak.

 

And the Upton trade really only works if they can bring back Crawford with that trade.

[Wanne]

The problem with Upton is in his stats. He's Adam Dunn-like in his strikeouts, but he's not Dunn-like in his power. He's going to strike out 150+ times a year. IF you hit 1 out of every 10 balls you touch out of the ballpark, you'll still put up overall decent numbers, but if you can't do that, you're going to run into that BABIP wall. If you're striking out that much you clearly don't have great bat control, and so there's only so much you can do unless you can knock down the strikeouts.

 

Literally, this is the kind of player his is always going to be, unless either you can push him up to 35+ HR power, or you totally rework his swing to cut him down to 120 or fewer strikeouts.

 

So you're saying it's a coaching problem?

[Balta1701]

So you're saying it's a coaching problem?

To some extent, possibly. He's probably been a wild, free swinger since he was in middle school. If "cutting down on strikeouts" was an easy thing for a coach to accomplish, there'd be a lot more really good major league hitters. Maybe a different coach overhauls everything and suddenly he's the guy everyone thinks he could be...but there's a reason why it hasn't happened so far.

[Wanne]

To some extent, possibly. He's probably been a wild, free swinger since he was in middle school. If "cutting down on strikeouts" was an easy thing for a coach to accomplish, there'd be a lot more really good major league hitters. Maybe a different coach overhauls everything and suddenly he's the guy everyone thinks he could be...but there's a reason why it hasn't happened so far.

 

I almost think one of the worst things that happened to him was his huge power surge in the playoffs a few years back...ever since then it's been a down town swing all the time. Like I said...I think he's one of those prime players that needs a change of scenery desperately...and definitely worth the risk. As much as I'd love to see CQ succeed...I just have more reservations about him being a completely hopeless headcase than I do Upton's upside. With Upton at least you'll get the solid D with about the same avg. Tough call though IMO...