Not far from the truth and that ain't no joke

Couldn't be further from the truth. If you count Peavy's and Jackson's shortened seasons, Freddy was our 6th best starter last year.

Lots of fastballs down the middle will give you a .370 BABIP alright.

His linedrive rate didn't see a significant jump between 08 and 09 although there was a 2 year period where his line drive rate was quite low. His K/9 increased this past season and his ground ball rate increased as well. I'm not disagreeing that Jenks threw some meatballs, but I also believe his numbers were inflated because a higher percentage of his mistakes were taken advantage of than is the "norm". I.e., the luck aspect.

 

And I'm not one to throw out these advanced stats too often, but for 2M a year, I think the Sox would be fools not to bring him back.

I just disagree with the notion that Jenks can't pitch. I agree he's been injury riddled and his lack of working out and being in decent shape has impacted him from being the pitcher he was a few years ago. However, last season Bobby was an incredibly unlucky pitcher as evidenced by the high BAPIP (.368). The few seasons prior to that he's still put up well above average ERA+'s (two years ago and elite level ERA+).

 

In fact, 2010 was a season in which he posted one of his lowest FIP and Xfip of 2.59 and 2.62 of his career.

 

Additionally, he's still striking out > a batter per inning.

 

What the hell? I read this post and assumed it was chw42. Gage goin' saber?

I just disagree with the notion that Jenks can't pitch. I agree he's been injury riddled and his lack of working out and being in decent shape has impacted him from being the pitcher he was a few years ago. However, last season Bobby was an incredibly unlucky pitcher as evidenced by the high BAPIP (.368). The few seasons prior to that he's still put up well above average ERA+'s (two years ago and elite level ERA+).

 

In fact, 2010 was a season in which he posted one of his lowest FIP and Xfip of 2.59 and 2.62 of his career.

 

Additionally, he's still striking out > a batter per inning.

 

 

eventually his weight and conditioning will catch up to him. I think we are seeing that. I would rather have putz for 4.5 million than Jenks. for the same price. I have not been able to get updated info on Konerko. Looks like people are keeping quite for now.

 

 

His linedrive rate didn't see a significant jump between 08 and 09 although there was a 2 year period where his line drive rate was quite low. His K/9 increased this past season and his ground ball rate increased as well. I'm not disagreeing that Jenks threw some meatballs, but I also believe his numbers were inflated because a higher percentage of his mistakes were taken advantage of than is the "norm". I.e., the luck aspect.

 

And I'm not one to throw out these advanced stats too often, but for 2M a year, I think the Sox would be fools not to bring him back.

 

His LD rate stabilized at the end of the year. I think it was around 25% for a good portion of the season, which is pretty bad.

 

And in no way am I saying he'd be an elite closer, but given our other options I think having him closing (at least some of the time) and giving us an added dimension in the pen is better than the situation without him or Putz.

 

I wouldn't pay him 5 or 6 million per year but he could actually be a pretty effective pitcher. Hell, I've long said if he just went back to throwing 2 pitches instead of dicking around he'd be back to his old self. Jenks just throws way too many different pitches for him to be able to throw em all effectively in a 1 inning appearance.

What the hell? I read this post and assumed it was chw42. Gage goin' saber?

lol, that was seriously my first thought as well. Took me by surprise big time.

His linedrive rate didn't see a significant jump between 08 and 09 although there was a 2 year period where his line drive rate was quite low. His K/9 increased this past season and his ground ball rate increased as well. I'm not disagreeing that Jenks threw some meatballs, but I also believe his numbers were inflated because a higher percentage of his mistakes were taken advantage of than is the "norm". I.e., the luck aspect.

 

And I'm not one to throw out these advanced stats too often, but for 2M a year, I think the Sox would be fools not to bring him back.

 

 

I remmember being up 5-1 against the indians? in the ninth inning only to win 5-4 and leave the bases loaded. I am done with that stuff.

And I'm not one to throw out these advanced stats too often, but for 2M a year, I think the Sox would be fools not to bring him back.

 

But he'll get more than that from a team thinking he can still close. I think the Sox would be fools to bring him back as a closer.

What the hell? I read this post and assumed it was chw42. Gage goin' saber?

I never ever go saber and I'm not always a big proponent of the high bapip lines because I agree if people hit the ball harder or throw more meatballs that BAPIP will be higher. But I watched plenty of Jenks games and didn't think his "stuff" wasn't their. I think he is fat and out of shape and has a mental hurdle he needs to get over, but I still believe he has above average stuff and I think the stats tend to back that up to an extent.

 

I also remember any meatball he threw getting hit pretty hard. Normally you get away with a decent chunk of your mistakes when you also have pretty solid stuff. I fully expect Jenks, if healthy, to put up at least average numbers as a closer and if that means the Sox pay 2M, than I think that would equate to the club having quite the bargain.

 

I'll say this: the Sox know about any non-physical issues he might be having more than anyone else, so if they do bring him back, I'll trust that they're confident everything will work out.

But he'll get more than that from a team thinking he can still close. I think the Sox would be fools to bring him back as a closer.

And if that is the case, I wouldn't sign him. I'd even be ok with a little higher deal as long as the inflatable stats were incentive based.

 

The question is, does Bobby want to stay in Chicago. If he does and wants to stay on a contender, than why not Chicago at a bit of a discount. If he wants to get paid, well, quite frankly I don't see anyone giving him a long term deal to close right now and if a team would, they are probably not that good of a club. So this might be Bobby's best shot at being on a contending team with a shot at closing.

 

I would also be perfectly ok with Jenks/Thorty closing, however, I really have a hard time supporting a closer by committee because I really can't think of many times where that process has worked.

I remmember being up 5-1 against the indians? in the ninth inning only to win 5-4 and leave the bases loaded. I am done with that stuff.

I agree that was horrible. But if our options are Octavio Dotel, I have more confidence in Jenks. Not a knock on Dotel, he's a solid pitcher, but I think Jenks is better. I also fear the notion of a full bullpen by committee because they just don't seem to work (from a historical perspective). I know in theory they make a hell of a lot of sense but it appears that players like knowing what their role is and than adjusting to that role.

Jenks is a closer who can't close anymore... Signing him for 1 mil and having him compete for the closers job and losing it is a waste.... Bobby can't close and can't pitch the 7th inning, so what's the point?

You aren't getting Bobby for 1 mill, but if you could get him for anywhere near that it'd be incredible value.

I agree that was horrible. But if our options are Octavio Dotel, I have more confidence in Jenks. Not a knock on Dotel, he's a solid pitcher, but I think Jenks is better. I also fear the notion of a full bullpen by committee because they just don't seem to work (from a historical perspective). I know in theory they make a hell of a lot of sense but it appears that players like knowing what their role is and than adjusting to that role.

 

 

Well i dont know why they would want Dotel. I don't remember who it was on the board yesterday but they said relievers are a dime a dozen. I know thats not true but I will say I would trade viciedo for a decent one.

Edited December 6, 201015 yr by quickman

Dunno if this was posted anywhere else but..

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/nigh...m-mariners.html

 

The White Sox, a runner-up in the Gonzalez sweepstakes, offered Gordon Beckham and prospects to the Padres, according to Nightengale (Twitter links). Nightengale reports that the Mariners were the other finalist for the slugging first baseman.

I can see it now...Jenks come to camp in the "best shape of his life" pitches LIGHTS OUT in ST, and goes one to win the coveted Danny Wright Award and s***s the bed once the bell rings and we have a GIANT hole in the pen in '11

I agree that was horrible. But if our options are Octavio Dotel, I have more confidence in Jenks. Not a knock on Dotel, he's a solid pitcher, but I think Jenks is better. I also fear the notion of a full bullpen by committee because they just don't seem to work (from a historical perspective). I know in theory they make a hell of a lot of sense but it appears that players like knowing what their role is and than adjusting to that role.

Chris Sale should be our closer, that way you can keep Matt where he's most valuable and go out and look for more help with out needing to have a guy that has closed before. Quite simple imo.

Well i dont know why they would want Dotel. I don't remember who it was on the board yesterday but they said relievers are a dime a dozen. I know thats not true but I will say I would trade viciedo for a decent one.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox spun Viciedo for some sort of young power arm that they felt could ultimately make it in the rotation or bullpen.

Chris Sale should be our closer, that way you can keep Matt where he's most valuable and go out and look for more help with out needing to have a guy that has closed before. Quite simple imo.

If Sale closes, who starts?

If Sale closes, who starts?

 

Garcia is the 5th until Peavy's healthy. As much as I want Sale to start, I think that ship has sailed for next year.

If Sale closes, who starts?

Peavy or Freddy or some other innings eater that we pick up. Chris is going to be in the pen to start the season, guaranteed.

freddy garcia

If Sale closes, who starts?

Buehrle

Floyd

Danks

Jackson

Garcia

 

 

Peavy comes back at some point...

Garcia is the 5th until Peavy's healthy. As much as I want Sale to start, I think that ship has sailed for next year.

Garcia is a FA correct?