8/31 GT - SOX vs. Twins - 1:10pm CDT - WGN

[StrangeSox]

Peavy's had 2-3 of these really bad starts. He hasn't been that bad in the other ones. He's been incredibly unlucky. If you haven't noticed, he's not giving up home runs or extremely hard hit line drives in most of his games, but ends up giving up 3-4 runs regardless. He has a 62% strand rate, which is about 10% below league average. The rule of thumb is that over a large amount of innings (say about 1000), luck gets isolated and the strand rate for all pitchers should be about 72-75%.

 

On top of that, Peavy has an FIP almost 2 runs lower than his ERA. An xFIP 1.5 runs lower, a tERA a whole run lower, and a SIERA 1.5 runs lower. That's 4 separate advanced pitching metrics saying he's been unlucky and by quite a large amount as well. On top of that, from what I've seen, I don't think he really deserves to have an ERA over 5. He's probably been the unluckiest pitcher on the staff this year just by the amount of seeing eye singles he's given up.

 

I know it sounds like I'm making excuses for him, but I truly believe that he isn't as bad as his ERA looks.

 

Peavy sucked today, no way around it.

 

that doesn't excuse batting Rios 4th or PHing Dunn for lilli

[ILMOU]

As for Ozzie's ideas about protecting Vic, the better solution may be to bat Viciedo 3rd and Konerko 4th.

 

When Q comes back, yes, but for now I want him right behind PK.

[NorthSideSox72]

I'm sure Stewart is faster than Lucy or at least I wouldn't be surprised. Lets be honest, neither of us know how good of a base runner Donny is but I'd take my chances with Zach there.

 

Ozzie disgusts me but that's a move that actually made sense imo.

 

In his last season where he played full time in AAA, which was in 2007, he stole 13 bases in 14 attempts (and had double digits in years before that too). He was injured in 2008 and has been a backup since, but stole a few anyway. Plus I've seen him play. And an Al pitcher who never hits/runs is a much higher injury risk. Zero doubt in my mind that Lucy is a decent baserunner and made more sense there, the only reason he didn't is that as someone else pointed out, Ozzie NEVER plays his backup C for the game.

 

In any case, this was well down the list of his stupid mistakes, and it turned out not to matter. If Rios got a hit though, it could have.

 

[Marty34]

Peavy's had 2-3 of these really bad starts. He hasn't been that bad in the other ones. He's been incredibly unlucky. If you haven't noticed, he's not giving up home runs or extremely hard hit line drives in most of his games,

 

He got hit hard in that first inning today. I don't know if he's unlucky, but his stuff isn't near what it was. He can't get away with any mistakes.

 

[BigSqwert]

Per Mark Gonzalez: Brent Lillibridge led the Sox with six home runs in August.

 

Thank goodness Ozzie PH for him in the 9th....and with one of the biggest busts of all time.

Edited August 31, 2011 by BigSqwert

[Rowand44]

In his last season where he played full time in AAA, which was in 2007, he stole 13 bases in 14 attempts (and had double digits in years before that too). He was injured in 2008 and has been a backup since, but stole a few anyway. Plus I've seen him play. And an Al pitcher who never hits/runs is a much higher injury risk. Zero doubt in my mind that Lucy is a decent baserunner and made more sense there, the only reason he didn't is that as someone else pointed out, Ozzie NEVER plays his backup C for the game.

 

In any case, this was well down the list of his stupid mistakes, and it turned out not to matter. If Rios got a hit though, it could have.

Well I gotta admit, as much as I do follow the minor leagues, I never really paid attention to Lucy's stolen base numbers and I really don't recall off the top of my head, seeing him run. Well played, you win this argument.

[chw42]

He got hit hard in that first inning today. I don't know if he's unlucky, but his stuff isn't near what it was. He can't get away with any mistakes.

 

I never said he was good today and I'm not saying that he shouldn't be blamed at all. But saying Peavy's nothing but a deadweight is speaking far too early.

 

Remember when Zack Greinke had a 5.5 ERA earlier this year with absolutely gaudy K:BB ratios? I'm not saying Peavy's anywhere near the same pitcher, but pitchers tend to come back to what their peripherals show and Peavy's peripherals have been pretty good.

[Kyyle23]

After a 6 run deficit in the 1st??

 

with the winning runs on base in the 8th and 9th innings. With insanely bad managerial decisions. Yes, this one definitely got away, it was a winnable game

[JoshPR]

Lexi's been jerked around by Ozzie more than anyone in the batting order. He hasn't been great, but he could benefit from a defined role at this point in his career, IMO.

 

But really, with Quentin out, it's freakin' obvious who should be batting behind Konerko.

Lexi gets himself out, tank can hit 5th

[ILMOU]

Lexi gets himself out, tank can hit 5th

 

You don't like Lexi, I get it.

 

He's another guy I'd like to see work with someone besides Walker. Lexi's known to be coachable and a good listener.

[Marty34]

You don't like Lexi, I get it.

 

He's another guy I'd like to see work with someone besides Walker. Lexi's known to be coachable and a good listener.

 

Ramirez has passed the age where he's likely to get better.

[ILMOU]

Ramirez has passed the age where he's likely to get better.

 

You mean like 35 y.o. Paulie is right before our eyes? Whatever, dude.

[Marty34]

You mean like 35 y.o. Paulie is right before our eyes? Whatever, dude.

 

If you think Ramirez can get better good for you, but I wouldn't put any eggs in that basket.

Edited August 31, 2011 by Marty34

[The Ginger Kid]

showed some fight after being in the hole. Back-to-back sweeps of the Twins? I must've been dreaming. But I'll live with 5 of the last 6 and hope that ozzie's blunders haven't dashed the mojo coming from that dugout. It's going to be tough to overcome 5 games in the loss column but there's still a lot of baseball left. Picking up one game this weekend doesn't feel like enough.

[ILMOU]

If you think Ramirez can get better good for you, but I wouldn't put any eggs in that basket.

 

He's not nearly as bad as you seem to think he is, he's actually much better, and I do expect him to return to his career norms.

[kitekrazy]

showed some fight after being in the hole. Back-to-back sweeps of the Twins? I must've been dreaming. But I'll live with 5 of the last 6 and hope that ozzie's blunders haven't dashed the mojo coming from that dugout. It's going to be tough to overcome 5 games in the loss column but there's still a lot of baseball left. Picking up one game this weekend doesn't feel like enough.

 

Having a former CY set you back 6 runs before they get to swing a bat doesn't help. I was surprised they made it interesting. Too bad Dunn and Rios wouldn't volunteer to work with the hitting coach in Charlotte.

 

[Marty34]

He's not nearly as bad as you seem to think he is, he's actually much better, and I do expect him to return to his career norms.

 

I don't think he's bad. Overvalued even at career norms.

 

[chw42]

Alexei's probably the second most valuable position player on the team. I don't know how you can think he sucks.

[chw42]

I don't think he's bad. Overvalued even at career norms.

 

He plays SS, he plays it well, and he's an above average offensive SS. What else do you want? Do you want Trevor Plouffe instead? At the rate he's getting paid and the production he gives, he's a bargain.