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2012 MLB draft talk


DirtySox
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QUOTE (Jake @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 08:50 PM)
If we draft a position player, I just ask that it's a player that doesn't project to strike out once per game.

 

Stroman is my favorite, but Giolito would be VERY interesting...it'd be hard to blame them for it. I know his mother and they're a great family, not trying to cheat anyone out of their investment.

 

Giolito would go against everything they believe in, it would seem (high school pitchers, injury risks)

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QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 04:17 PM)
Giolito would go against everything they believe in, it would seem (high school pitchers, injury risks)

 

Yeah I realize that. However, I think we should be open to rethinking our draft philosophy. This guy is a Verlander-ish talent and is 17 years old, might not be the worst player to take the plunge with. Certainly would make sense to not draft him as well, though --- I'll be pissed if it's for one of these low ceiling college guys or a high strikeout, raw athlete position player.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 02:08 PM)
No, in fact the leverage has swung the other way. If a guy doesn't sign, the team LOSES the recommended slot for that pick from their available pool of funds. Imagine the implications: if a later round pick has signed for anything above slot, the early round guy can threaten not to sign and thus subject the team to penalties! This is just one of the new rules that I think is going to make the next couple drafts a mess until they rethink it.

You are mistaken. They would receive the draft pick in the following year. Yes, you would lose the slot for that pick (but that isn't that big of a deal in most instances, unless you went under slot on that pick with a plan of spending a little more later on). However, if the Sox couldn't sign the 13th pick, they would get the 14th pick next year.

 

I think it will be Stroman. DJ Davis is another guy I think the Sox like and could go after (tools wise, they like guys like Davis; the prep thing, not as much, but if they go position player, its almost surely going to be a prep guy).

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 04:08 PM)
No, in fact the leverage has swung the other way. If a guy doesn't sign, the team LOSES the recommended slot for that pick from their available pool of funds. Imagine the implications: if a later round pick has signed for anything above slot, the early round guy can threaten not to sign and thus subject the team to penalties! This is just one of the new rules that I think is going to make the next couple drafts a mess until they rethink it.

 

Well that blows

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QUOTE (Jake @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 02:19 PM)
Yeah I realize that. However, I think we should be open to rethinking our draft philosophy. This guy is a Verlander-ish talent and is 17 years old, might not be the worst player to take the plunge with. Certainly would make sense to not draft him as well, though --- I'll be pissed if it's for one of these low ceiling college guys or a high strikeout, raw athlete position player.

 

I 100% believe this will be one of the descriptions we'll hear in a few hours about of the 13th pick...

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I must be living in a hole but I was not aware of this (excerpt courtesy of bleachererport):

 

DRAFT LOTTERY – This is not what it sounds like. For those who may have watched the anti-climactic NBA lottery the other night in which they put on display for all to see how they fix the draft to award their agenda, you will not see that concept here. Instead, it will work like this. Teams with the 10 lowest revenues (not payrolls) and 10 smallest markets will be entered into a lottery for a total of six selections immediately following the first round. Clubs that lose that lottery will go into a second lottery for six supplemental picks immediately after the second round. Also included in the second-round lottery will be any clubs that received money as part of baseball’s revenue-sharing plan.

 

Obviously there will probably be some overlap in the qualifications as a good amount of low revenue teams also fall into the small market category. This is designed to off-set the fact that lower market teams like the Pirates who can’t typically afford to make a big splash in the free agent market but instead spend their money in the draft will now be under restrictions. Personally, I don’t think it’s a fair solution for either side. The small market teams are penalized by not allowing them to allocate their revenue the way they see fit, and the large market teams receive less bodies in the draft that is essentially a lottery to begin with.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 04:29 PM)
You are mistaken. They would receive the draft pick in the following year. Yes, you would lose the slot for that pick (but that isn't that big of a deal in most instances, unless you went under slot on that pick with a plan of spending a little more later on). However, if the Sox couldn't sign the 13th pick, they would get the 14th pick next year.

 

I think it will be Stroman. DJ Davis is another guy I think the Sox like and could go after (tools wise, they like guys like Davis; the prep thing, not as much, but if they go position player, its almost surely going to be a prep guy).

 

Oh, I'm sorry, I think I misunderstood your question. I get it now. Sorry to confuse my info.

 

However, I still think the slot dollars are a big deal, not because you need them later, but because of the leverage created by semantics as I described.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 04:50 PM)
I must be living in a hole but I was not aware of this (excerpt courtesy of bleachererport):

 

DRAFT LOTTERY – This is not what it sounds like. For those who may have watched the anti-climactic NBA lottery the other night in which they put on display for all to see how they fix the draft to award their agenda, you will not see that concept here. Instead, it will work like this. Teams with the 10 lowest revenues (not payrolls) and 10 smallest markets will be entered into a lottery for a total of six selections immediately following the first round. Clubs that lose that lottery will go into a second lottery for six supplemental picks immediately after the second round. Also included in the second-round lottery will be any clubs that received money as part of baseball’s revenue-sharing plan.

 

Obviously there will probably be some overlap in the qualifications as a good amount of low revenue teams also fall into the small market category. This is designed to off-set the fact that lower market teams like the Pirates who can’t typically afford to make a big splash in the free agent market but instead spend their money in the draft will now be under restrictions. Personally, I don’t think it’s a fair solution for either side. The small market teams are penalized by not allowing them to allocate their revenue the way they see fit, and the large market teams receive less bodies in the draft that is essentially a lottery to begin with.

 

Wait, what? I never heard anything about this.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 02:51 PM)
Oh, I'm sorry, I think I misunderstood your question. I get it now. Sorry to confuse my info.

 

However, I still think the slot dollars are a big deal, not because you need them later, but because of the leverage created by semantics as I described.

Think of it this way, I'm a #1 pick and the slot is 1.5M. If I'm going to pay $1.5M for that pick and don't sign it, nothing lost. All I lose is what was slotted there.

 

On the flipside, if I was strategically going overslot at that pick (say spending $2M), then that could hurt me, since I probably went underslot in other areas. However, that is strategy and whose to say you don't hedge that bet by grabbing another guy in the draft who you have cushion for if you do think that is a possibility (so you can go overslot on that guy if you miss out on your projection here).

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QUOTE (DirtySox @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 02:54 PM)
It's indeed part of the CBA draft changes. Begins next year I believe.

I knew they had talked about it, I guess somewhere in the midst of working crazy hours I hadn't realized it was approved. Makes more sense that it starts next year (cause I certainly hadn't read anything about it when reading stuff on this years draft). Thats what I get for thinking I'd get anything worthwhile from the bleacherreport.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 05:00 PM)
Think of it this way, I'm a #1 pick and the slot is 1.5M. If I'm going to pay $1.5M for that pick and don't sign it, nothing lost. All I lose is what was slotted there.

 

On the flipside, if I was strategically going overslot at that pick (say spending $2M), then that could hurt me, since I probably went underslot in other areas. However, that is strategy and whose to say you don't hedge that bet by grabbing another guy in the draft who you have cushion for if you do think that is a possibility (so you can go overslot on that guy if you miss out on your projection here).

 

Say your sandwich pick signs for $300k above slot. You didn't plan it that way, but that's how it worked out. Some later picks sign at slot or are unsigned still. Now your first round pick demands to be X overslot, forcing you to choose between signing him and some other guys go later in the draft. He has extra leverage because if you DON'T sign him, you lose his slot money and have to pay a penalty because you are already over-budget. This is the first time there's been any discernable cost associated with NOT signing a guy. Now you have to sacrifice either way.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 03:11 PM)
Say your sandwich pick signs for $300k above slot. You didn't plan it that way, but that's how it worked out. Some later picks sign at slot or are unsigned still. Now your first round pick demands to be X overslot, forcing you to choose between signing him and some other guys go later in the draft. He has extra leverage because if you DON'T sign him, you lose his slot money and have to pay a penalty because you are already over-budget. This is the first time there's been any discernable cost associated with NOT signing a guy. Now you have to sacrifice either way.

I agree with that, but at the same time, that strategy has long excited. However, it was more a matter of internal budgets. Now, everyone is on a level playing field and I for one am very happy about that. Let the best scouts/front offices/coaches (to develop said players) win. Not who has the biggest budget/resources to spend on the draft.

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QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 05:03 PM)
So, final predictions for first pick by Sox? I'm going with Stratton

 

Going with my heart, Stroman

 

Will be very disappointed with Heaney, I like what I hear about Stratton but half the good things had never been seen before this year so I wonder if they will last (sinking fastball, secondary pitch, starting pitcher)

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 05:13 PM)
I agree with that, but at the same time, that strategy has long excited. However, it was more a matter of internal budgets. Now, everyone is on a level playing field and I for one am very happy about that. Let the best scouts/front offices/coaches (to develop said players) win. Not who has the biggest budget/resources to spend on the draft.

 

I like it, as a Sox fan, because Reinsdorf wasn't going to spend either way. But before this deal, there existed a real opportunity for smaller market teams to spend big on the draft where their dollars would go much further than on the free agent market -- and in fact, teams like the Pirates, Blue Jays, and Rays did just that. In a lot of ways, I actually think that this situation favors the big markets by eliminating and opportunity for the others to gain a competitive advantage.

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6 central. And I agree regarding Heaney. I'd like them to choose Stroman, a guy with big time stuff that is overlooked because he's short. With Stroman, I can dream on Tim Lincecum, but with Heaney, I can only dream on John Danks.

Edited by Eminor3rd
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