Thanks. I love the discussion here.

 

Regarding what some have said about Headley for Peavy et. al....

 

1.) Peavy did not burn any bridges when he left SD.

2.) Peavy put down roots in SD and may well want to go back there after experiencing Chicago weather.

In short, he probably not be adverse to such a trade.

3.) The relatively short and reasonable Contract Peavy did with the Sox is not beyond what SD could handle,

especially if they are losing Headley.

4.) SD want to move Headley because they have Jedd Gyorko Visit My Website a top 3rd base prospect in their system that they want to bring up next season.

5.) Chicago Sox fans and sports reporters in Chicago are growing sick of the loud Country music played in the clubhouse.

It's generally not a very good business practice to sign a player and then immediately trade him. Players need to have some level of trust in your Organization and in your Front Office.

When I hear that Milwaukee, Baltimore, and Seattle are top suitors for Hamilton...I have to think we ought to jump into the mix.

I would imagine all clubs interested in Hamilton will be taking his history into account. I would be surprised if he gets a deal for more than 4-5 years, and he may not get the money per year he wants. That could be why we are seeing those team being his top suitors.

 

I'm not sure about whether the Sox would or even should make an offer. My guess is that they are not interested, but even if they were I couldn't see an offer for more than 3/$60 million. I personally would like his production, but his history scares me, and he's not very young.

Sox trading Peavy has about the same chance of happening as Romney winning the election that just happened.

For everyone that says AJPs power surge was a fluke, what about Headley's?

For everyone that says AJPs power surge was a fluke, what about Headley's?

 

I would be less leery of a 28 year old finding his power stroke than a 35 year old. Either could be tainted, either could be valid. But Headley is in the prime of his career, AJ is winding down.

I would be less leery of a 28 year old finding his power stroke than a 35 year old. Either could be tainted, either could be valid. But Headley is in the prime of his career, AJ is winding down.

I would not expect him to hit 31 homers next year. He probably w will be a lot closer to his previous high of 12. If somehow the Sox got him, expectations would be through the roof, odds are he couldn't live up to them.

I would not expect him to hit 31 homers next year. He probably w will be a lot closer to his previous high of 12. If somehow the Sox got him, expectations would be through the roof, odds are he couldn't live up to them.

 

K

I would not expect him to hit 31 homers next year. He probably w will be a lot closer to his previous high of 12. If somehow the Sox got him, expectations would be through the roof, odds are he couldn't live up to them.

 

I guess that depends on where he plays next year. He played half of his games in Petco Park, the biggest park of them all, and still hit 42% of his HR there. And within his division was the least homered in park in all of baseball the past 2 season, AT&T Park.

 

If Headley were to go to the Sox, I think it would be quite reasonable to expect at least 25 HR, and 30+ wouldn't surprised anyone.

I guess that depends on where he plays next year. He played half of his games in Petco Park, the biggest park of them all, and still hit 42% of his HR there. And within his division was the least homered in park in all of baseball the past 2 season, AT&T Park.

 

If Headley were to go to the Sox, I think it would be quite reasonable to expect at least 25 HR, and 30+ wouldn't surprised anyone.

I think you would be disappointed.

 

He still hit almost half at home so it really wasn't'the negative it sometimes can be. Adrian Gonzalez didn't suddenly pop more homers after,leaving there, and that 31 total was way out there compared to the rest of his career. In 2011 he hit 4. If I were him, I'd cash in on his 2012 numbers and sign an extension. He could get burned, but there is a better chance he won"t. That is all I'm saying.

 

 

I would not expect him to hit 31 homers next year. He probably w will be a lot closer to his previous high of 12. If somehow the Sox got him, expectations would be through the roof, odds are he couldn't live up to them.

 

Given the results from NL players coming over to us and their production the following year I'd agree with this...

Chase Headley solves the third base dilemma and provides the Left Hand power that could be lost when Dunn gets moved.

 

I would offer to trade Peavey back to SD and package Thornton and Beckham with him.

 

On another front I would try to trade Dunn to some National league ball club with the goal of dumping most of his salary.

 

Thorton must be traded on principle alone. Too many blown saves and his refusal to adjust his pitching style,

 

 

And one shocker I would offer up for trade - Addison Reed. I think Nate Jones has better stuff and Reed may bring the trade value that other pitchers we have won't.

 

Why would SD add all that payroll in what would be a lateral move? Which NL club would ever put Adam Dunn on the field every day for the next few years at this point? Why would you ever trade someone on "principle"? You think Thornton doesn't want to have more good pitches? Trading a guy because he performed poorly in a role he isn't well-suited for makes no sense. Thornton is a reliever that is effective in high leverage situations against left-handed hitters. You trade him if you decide you don't want to pay his salary for that job, not because he blew a bunch of saves. That's like saying we should trade Rios because he was bad in CF.

Regarding Headley's power:

 

PetCo actually doesn't suppress righty power nearly as much as it does lefty power. It still plays down on righty power, but more like a typical pitcher's park. I think SafeCo actually killed righty power much more the last couple years. You'd expect the Cell to help out Headley's power a bit, but probably not enough to make up for the move to the tougher league.

 

Here's the most interesting data point -- Headley's HR/FB% since his first full season in 2008: 10.7%, 7.6%, 6.4%, 4.3%, 21.4%. This is exactly what happened with Joe Mauer in his MVP season -- a massively flukey HR/FB rate with no evidence of a change in approach or environment except that he was in his age 28 season and that maybe he was finally peaking.

 

If he had a decent, healthy year, I'd guess 20-25. It seems very unlikely he's a true talent 30+ HR guy, even in the Cell.

Edited November 12, 201213 yr by Eminor3rd

I doubt Headley becomes a bust, but there is a very high chance that you overpay for him. You just have to hope the players you give up fizzle out like prospects often do. Then you have to not give Headley a s*** ton of money

I doubt Headley becomes a bust, but there is a very high chance that you overpay for him. You just have to hope the players you give up fizzle out like prospects often do. Then you have to not give Headley a s*** ton of money

 

Although he would be a more than serviceable solution to fill the hole at third base, he is not the big left handed bat the Sox need. Moreover, he is not worth committing big money. The Sox would still need to look elsewhere for the sorely needed left handed, middle of the order bat. I hope that Hahn does not plan to go into next season with Dunn's .200 batting average anywhere in the middle of the order.

So the conversation has gone from "He is untouchable" to "He had a fluke season, he's probably due for a regression"