How much are you willing to offer Josh Hamilton?

[southsider2k5]

After reading all of the posts, and thinking more about it, I have to agree with you. So, whom should the Sox go after?

I see that it has been speculated it would take 4 years, and $40 million to resign Headley. If that is the case, would you like to see the Sox trade and extend him?

 

We have no money to spend on big named players. The Sox are going to have to trade for whomever they bring. The hard part of that is not trading core pieces and getting significantly worse at some positions to upgrade others. Headley falls into that category by most consensus.

[southsider2k5]

It's just something to think about in the offseason, won't happen but its fun to speculate.

 

I really like Josh. I don't read many books but I've read his multiple times and it's made me respect the guy. You guys obviously don't respect him and thats ok, you don't know his story.

 

Knowing his whole story is part of the due diligence with a guy like Hamilton. If you know his story you know he has a hard-core drug history so there is an expectation that his body should breakdown quicker than most. He is a guy that hurts himself in the name of competition. He is turning 32 next year meaning he is in the stage of his career where natural decline is going to start to happen anyway. His value diminishes if he moves from CF to a corner OF position. He literally could relapse at any time, and moving into a new market, with totally new (or maybe even absent) control systems could lead to a failure of his ability to stay away from drugs and/or alcohol. He could also fall into relapse based on the pressures of a new mega-contract in a new location.

 

Those things aren't about respect, or knowing the guy. Its about the reality of his history and his situation... All things that matter to which ever team shells out a ton of money for him.

[ewokpelts]

Knowing his whole story is part of the due diligence with a guy like Hamilton. If you know his story you know he has a hard-core drug history so there is an expectation that his body should breakdown quicker than most. He is a guy that hurts himself in the name of competition. He is turning 32 next year meaning he is in the stage of his career where natural decline is going to start to happen anyway. His value diminishes if he moves from CF to a corner OF position. He literally could relapse at any time, and moving into a new market, with totally new (or maybe even absent) control systems could lead to a failure of his ability to stay away from drugs and/or alcohol. He could also fall into relapse based on the pressures of a new mega-contract in a new location.

 

Those things aren't about respect, or knowing the guy. Its about the reality of his history and his situation... All things that matter to which ever team shells out a ton of money for him.

Hell, the Rangers have been super supportive of him, and he still averages a bender a year (AND there's photos!).

He's going to get that fat contract. It wont be in Chicago. And he'll eventually settle into a nice career as a motivational speaker or even run a church when he stops playing baseball.

 

BUT, he's not worth the money his agent is asking for.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

I think people might be overstating what kind of money he's going to get. Everyone in baseball knows the risks with a guy like this, not to mention his body is effectively a lot older than 32. I'd be surprised if he got more than 3 or 4 years, and I'd bet on 3 over 4. The money might be pretty big, but I'm thinking more like $15M per.

 

[oldsox]

Rangers did make the official qualifying offer to Hamilton, so they will get a draft pick.

[Dick Allen]

I think people might be overstating what kind of money he's going to get. Everyone in baseball knows the risks with a guy like this, not to mention his body is effectively a lot older than 32. I'd be surprised if he got more than 3 or 4 years, and I'd bet on 3 over 4. The money might be pretty big, but I'm thinking more like $15M per.

Someone always overpays.

[southsider2k5]

Rangers did make the official qualifying offer to Hamilton, so they will get a draft pick.

 

I think that was a forgone conclusion.

[LittleHurt05]

I think people might be overstating what kind of money he's going to get. Everyone in baseball knows the risks with a guy like this, not to mention his body is effectively a lot older than 32. I'd be surprised if he got more than 3 or 4 years, and I'd bet on 3 over 4. The money might be pretty big, but I'm thinking more like $15M per.

 

 

I think you are underestimating the idiocy of MLB's general managers.

[southsider2k5]

I think you are underestimating the idiocy of MLB's general managers.

 

This. I think the dollars will end up around his asking price because of the additional TV money coming on line. I do think the years will be more like 4-5 versus 7.

[cabiness42]

Wouldn't go more than 3 years guaranteed but would do up to 2 years worth of vesting options. Doesn't matter though, I don't see the Sox as a realistic spot for him.

[Jake]

Knowing his whole story is part of the due diligence with a guy like Hamilton. If you know his story you know he has a hard-core drug history so there is an expectation that his body should breakdown quicker than most. He is a guy that hurts himself in the name of competition. He is turning 32 next year meaning he is in the stage of his career where natural decline is going to start to happen anyway. His value diminishes if he moves from CF to a corner OF position. He literally could relapse at any time, and moving into a new market, with totally new (or maybe even absent) control systems could lead to a failure of his ability to stay away from drugs and/or alcohol. He could also fall into relapse based on the pressures of a new mega-contract in a new location.

 

Those things aren't about respect, or knowing the guy. Its about the reality of his history and his situation... All things that matter to which ever team shells out a ton of money for him.

 

I was pretty sure a single failed drug test voids his contracts per MLB's agreement letting him back into baseball.

[2nd_city_saint787]

I was pretty sure a single failed drug test voids his contracts per MLB's agreement letting him back into baseball.

 

Yup, and he takes them more often than a regular player. Back around when his book was made (a few years back into his playing career) he was still getting them weekly or bi weekly.

 

That tells me he's been clean for 6 years. I also don't consider his yearly bender where he goes out and drinks a relapse or that big a deal if it doesn't lead to hardcore drug use. Are MLB players not supposed to drink during the year?

[Dick Allen]

Yup, and he takes them more often than a regular player. Back around when his book was made (a few years back into his playing career) he was still getting them weekly or bi weekly.

 

That tells me he's been clean for 6 years. I also don't consider his yearly bender where he goes out and drinks a relapse or that big a deal if it doesn't lead to hardcore drug use. Are MLB players not supposed to drink during the year?

Generally recovering alcoholics aren't supposed to be drinking at all.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Knowing his whole story is part of the due diligence with a guy like Hamilton. If you know his story you know he has a hard-core drug history so there is an expectation that his body should breakdown quicker than most. He is a guy that hurts himself in the name of competition. He is turning 32 next year meaning he is in the stage of his career where natural decline is going to start to happen anyway. His value diminishes if he moves from CF to a corner OF position. He literally could relapse at any time, and moving into a new market, with totally new (or maybe even absent) control systems could lead to a failure of his ability to stay away from drugs and/or alcohol. He could also fall into relapse based on the pressures of a new mega-contract in a new location.

 

Those things aren't about respect, or knowing the guy. Its about the reality of his history and his situation... All things that matter to which ever team shells out a ton of money for him.

 

Knowing his story I know he's a changed man and he spent a year building his body back up to play at the level he's playing at.

 

He has the 3rd highest OPS in the MLB over the last 3 years, him moving to a corner OF spot doesn't diminish his value.

 

The Sox have about a 2 year window where they can be title contenders, you add Hamilton and balance out the lineup those chances increase.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Generally recovering alcoholics aren't supposed to be drinking at all.

 

Alcohol wasn't his problem though. Yes when we was an addict he drank but the drinking lead to hardcore drugs. If its no longer leading to drugs and he can handle being a normal human being that has a drink once in awhile than more power to him!

[southsider2k5]

Alcohol wasn't his problem though. Yes when we was an addict he drank but the drinking lead to hardcore drugs. If its no longer leading to drugs and he can handle being a normal human being that has a drink once in awhile than more power to him!

 

Except if he relapses into alcohol, it makes it easier for him to relapse into drugs.

[southsider2k5]

I was pretty sure a single failed drug test voids his contracts per MLB's agreement letting him back into baseball.

 

Even if you remove the monetary considerations, what happens when you don't have your starting clean up hitter for at least 50 games? In Hamilton's case, it could be more because of his suspension history.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Except if he relapses into alcohol, it makes it easier for him to relapse into drugs.

 

It does, but it hasn't happened. He's a changed, "God fearing" man.

 

 

Even if you remove the monetary considerations, what happens when you don't have your starting clean up hitter for at least 50 games? In Hamilton's case, it could be more because of his suspension history.

 

Unless they changed things since his book was written, if he fails a test he's gone from baseball period. They could have changed it though since he's been clean for so long but I doubt it.

 

It's a chance worth taking for one of the best hitters in baseball if you ask me.

 

He's still gonna have monster years the next 2 years with PK and Dunn still on the team.

Edited November 12, 2012 by 2nd_city_saint787

[southsider2k5]

It does, but it hasn't happened. He's a changed, "God fearing" man.

 

 

 

 

Unless they changed things since his book was written, if he fails a test he's gone from baseball period. They could have changed it though since he's been clean for so long but I doubt it.

 

It's a chance worth taking for one of the best hitters in baseball if you ask me.

 

He's still gonna have monster years the next 2 years with PK and Dunn still on the team.

 

That's the other rub. The Sox would have to trade big named players to make payroll room for Hamilton. If they were to go after Josh, they would probably have to get rid of at least one of Konerko and Dunn.

[Jake]

That's the other rub. The Sox would have to trade big named players to make payroll room for Hamilton. If they were to go after Josh, they would probably have to get rid of at least one of Konerko and Dunn.

 

I'm supposing that the three of them would be together this next season -- PK probably going away after that unless he wants to make less money

[southsider2k5]

I'm supposing that the three of them would be together this next season -- PK probably going away after that unless he wants to make less money

 

Still have to find $25ish million in room for 2012 that the White Sox currently don't have.

[2nd_city_saint787]

That's the other rub. The Sox would have to trade big named players to make payroll room for Hamilton. If they were to go after Josh, they would probably have to get rid of at least one of Konerko and Dunn.

 

You must have missed my 2am post about trading Rios, Floyd, and Thorntons 27 mill for cheap young talent.

[southsider2k5]

You must have missed my 2am post about trading Rios, Floyd, and Thorntons 27 mill for cheap young talent.

 

Is the team really better at that point?

[bigruss]

Is the team really better at that point?

You most likely won't get good, young MLB starters for those guys.

 

It'd be better to spread that money around.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Is the team really better at that point?

 

If you can get a good young 3B and or a C in the trades? Yes. The teams RH heavy, trading in Rios for Hamilton changes that. Hamilton also had an OPS 100 points higher than Rios, so theres that.