My biggest worry with that rotation is the same one as last year...durability. 3 of those guys pitched vastly more innings last year than they did the couple years beforehand, which is always a red flag, one of them was hurt the whole year, and one is almost a rookie.

 

I like our depth overall, but that's because I think we have more minor league options who could step in. If you think a couple guys could use more time in the minors, then spending a million to have a guy be the long man in the bullpen with experience and ready to step in...that's reasonable.

Well I can't see him being available for a million in the first place. I think he's going to get at least $4 million or so.

 

To your point, however, while I was very optimistic about our chances last year, this year, I am quite pessimistic. I think we are going to really struggle this season, so I'm not concerned so much about durability as much as I am sorting out who is going to be a long-term option and in what roles.

 

IMO, having Joe Saunders or any one of those other veterans isn't going to provide anything that makes a difference one way or the other, so I'd rather save the cash and give the innings to someone for development purposes.

Edited December 1, 201213 yr by iamshack

Well I can't see him being available for a million in the first place. I think he's going to get at least $4 million or so.

 

To your point, however, while I was very optimistic about our chances last year, this year, I am quite pessimistic. I think we are going to really struggle this season, so I'm not concerned so much about durability as much as I am sorting out who is going to be a long-term option and in what roles.

 

IMO, having Joe Saunders or any one of those other veterans isn't going to provide anything that makes a difference one way or the other, so I'd rather save the cash and give the innings to someone for development purposes.

Why do you think we're going to struggle next year? Just curious.

Why do you think we're going to struggle next year? Just curious.

Well, last season a lot of things went right for us...Dunn bounced back, Rios had a career year, Konerko carried us for 2 months, Sale and Peavy had outstanding seasons, a lot of our young bullpen guys came up big for us, Q had a great few months, AJ had a career year, etc., and it still wasn't enough.

 

Now I understand that we will get some unexpected positives this season too. Maybe Danks comes back and pitches well. Maybe Viciedo takes the next step and puts up some Carlos Lee type numbers. Maybe Gordon finally makes a reappearance. But I think a lot of guys will have lesser years than last, and quite frankly, the rest of our division has to get better than they were last year. The Twins will be better, the Tigers will be better, the Royals and Indians will probably be better.

 

I just think this will be a down year for us, fairly similar to '07. And that's fine, as long as we use it wisely to develop some players, move some guys in-season to trim some payroll, and start focusing on our next window, which will most likely be '15 and beyond.

Well, last season a lot of things went right for us...Dunn bounced back, Rios had a career year, Konerko carried us for 2 months, Sale and Peavy had outstanding seasons, a lot of our young bullpen guys came up big for us, Q had a great few months, AJ had a career year, etc., and it still wasn't enough.

 

Now I understand that we will get some unexpected positives this season too. Maybe Danks comes back and pitches well. Maybe Viciedo takes the next step and puts up some Carlos Lee type numbers. Maybe Gordon finally makes a reappearance. But I think a lot of guys will have lesser years than last, and quite frankly, the rest of our division has to get better than they were last year. The Twins will be better, the Tigers will be better, the Royals and Indians will probably be better.

 

I just think this will be a down year for us, fairly similar to '07. And that's fine, as long as we use it wisely to develop some players, move some guys in-season to trim some payroll, and start focusing on our next window, which will most likely be '15 and beyond.

I'm not going to go as far as shack here because I don't know where the roster will turn out, but the one thing shack didn't note here is the thing that worries me the most; the Verducci effect, or whatever you want to call it.

 

Quintana increased his innings load by 82 innings last year over the year before. Sale threw 121 more innings than the year before. Peavy threw 108 more innings than the year before. Jones and Reed seemed like they'd been basically bled dry down the stretch last year. Those innings increases and heavy usages early in their careers really do have the habit of catching up with guys, either through struggling or injury. If Sale has a Verlander/2008 type season, there's not much the team would be able to do to overcome that.

jurrjens + cooper = deadly.

 

get it done

The prospect of trading Floyd looks better and better now after the non-tender deadline. If we can trade him and get a couple of above average prospects and save the $9.5 to be allocated elsewhere I would be thrilled. Look at these various SP that were just non-tendered that could provide similar if not possibly better overall performance than Gavin; Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Karstens, John Lannan, Mike Pelfrey. Those guys aren't anything more than #4 or #5 starters on any team, but neither is Gavin. To get some 4.5ish ERA from one of those guys for close to 200IP at a fraction of the $9.5M Gavin is going to get to produce similar numbers would be a good move IMO. Tommy Hanson and his 2012 4.48 ERA was just traded for Jordan Walden, so Gavin has to have some value.

The prospect of trading Floyd looks better and better now after the non-tender deadline. If we can trade him and get a couple of above average prospects and save the $9.5 to be allocated elsewhere I would be thrilled. Look at these various SP that were just non-tendered that could provide similar if not possibly better overall performance than Gavin; Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Karstens, John Lannan, Mike Pelfrey. Those guys aren't anything more than #4 or #5 starters on any team, but neither is Gavin. To get some 4.5ish ERA from one of those guys for close to 200IP at a fraction of the $9.5M Gavin is going to get to produce similar numbers would be a good move IMO. Tommy Hanson and his 2012 4.48 ERA was just traded for Jordan Walden, so Gavin has to have some value.

It is amazing how much better Floyd is thought of around here 2 months after he has pitched. While he was pitching, there were very few who thought he was worth his option. They aren't going to get much for Floyd, and if the guys you mention are just as good as Floyd why would other teams not just sign them instead of giving up talent to pay Gavin more money?

It is amazing how much better Floyd is thought of around here 2 months after he has pitched. While he was pitching, there were very few who thought he was worth his option. They aren't going to get much for Floyd, and if the guys you mention are just as good as Floyd why would other teams not just sign them instead of giving up talent to pay Gavin more money?

 

There are many teams that may view the risk differently. Floyd is more proven, pitches in the AL, and posts respectable numbers. Since we watch all of his 30+ starts per year we view him as a jeckly and hyde type laborious pitcher who we have probably seen the best of already. In the eyes of the Angels, Mariners, Dodgers, Brewers, Braves is Floyd a more attractive option for a season than Karstens, Jurrjens, or Lannan?

Wouldn't mind taking a flyer on the non-tendered Jair Jurrjens, knowing we have Santiago/Quintana in case he doesn't work out.

I would like to see that also........I like his stuff overall.

O's reporter stating they're interested in Floyd. Makes sense that a team like the O's may pay top dollar for a guy like Floyd. The O's need dependable arms. Only had 1 guy make 30 starts. Gavin had made 30 four years in a row prior to last when he made 29. And he's from the Maryland area. If the O's would pull the trigger, now's the time with them actually being decent, contending and should afford a salary like Floyd's.

 

https://twitter.com/masnRoch/statuses/275728077949128706

O's reporter stating they're interested in Floyd. Makes sense that a team like the O's may pay top dollar for a guy like Floyd. The O's need dependable arms. Only had 1 guy make 30 starts. Gavin had made 30 four years in a row prior to last when he made 29. And he's from the Maryland area. If the O's would pull the trigger, now's the time with them actually being decent, contending and should afford a salary like Floyd's.

 

https://twitter.com/masnRoch/statuses/275728077949128706

 

I like hearing that multiple parties are in on Floyd. It also seems like Hahn is doing a great job in being a bit more patient while allowing markets to develop.

O's reporter stating they're interested in Floyd. Makes sense that a team like the O's may pay top dollar for a guy like Floyd. The O's need dependable arms. Only had 1 guy make 30 starts. Gavin had made 30 four years in a row prior to last when he made 29. And he's from the Maryland area. If the O's would pull the trigger, now's the time with them actually being decent, contending and should afford a salary like Floyd's.

 

https://twitter.com/masnRoch/statuses/275728077949128706

 

I'm sure the O's would love him... The problem is how do we match up with them?

I'm sure the O's would love him... The problem is how do we match up with them?

 

We need a 3rd baseman, they have Manny Machado. Get it done Hahn. (Yes, I know it would never happen.)

We need a 3rd baseman, they have Manny Machado. Get it done Hahn. (Yes, I know it would never happen.)

 

We could use a RHP back... How about this Bundy guy? Is he any good?

We could use a RHP back... How about this Bundy guy? Is he any good?

 

I was originally gonna mention Bundy, but didn't want to sound ridiculous.

I'm sure the O's would love him... The problem is how do we match up with them?

 

I wonder what we would need to include with Floyd to get them to consider Jonathan Schoop?

I'm sure the O's would love him... The problem is how do we match up with them?

 

Chris Davis has played close to 300 games at 3B...and he's a LH bat.

 

I'd give up Floyd and a couple decent minor league prospects for him.

Chris Davis has played close to 300 games at 3B...and he's a LH bat.

 

I'd give up Floyd and a couple decent minor league prospects for him.

 

There's a reason he's in the outfield.