Those stats are interesting. Whenever I have seen line ups I was always under the assumption that the 3 and 4 hole hitters were considered the best hitters on the team. Is this new analytical work that is not yet widely accepted? I have never seen it put to use that I am aware of.

Those stats are interesting. Whenever I have seen line ups I was always under the assumption that the 3 and 4 hole hitters were considered the best hitters on the team. Is this new analytical work that is not yet widely accepted? I have never seen it put to use that I am aware of.

 

It is certainly against traditional logic. Very interesting stuff.

I wonder how long it will be before Cabrera and Fielder are too obese to hit.

 

 

Early in the 2013 season hopefully

Early in the 2013 season hopefully

Bat have neither a right nor left configuration. However; baseball gloves and golf clubs do differ for application by people who swing and catch from different sides.

Didn't Cabrera lead the league in double plays last year?

 

Indeed, I believe he did.

 

Those stats are interesting. Whenever I have seen line ups I was always under the assumption that the 3 and 4 hole hitters were considered the best hitters on the team. Is this new analytical work that is not yet widely accepted? I have never seen it put to use that I am aware of.

 

Yeah it doesn't appear to be something that is widely accepted. If GMs know about it, they probably don't consider it valuable enough to force their managers' hands. The thing I didn't mention before is that while the evidence is really strong that this is the best way to optimize the lineup, it also showed that the difference between how much a traditionally optimized lineup would score compared to a "sabermetrically optimized lineup" really isn't all that much. On average, I think the difference between a horrible lineup construction and the best was something like 2 wins, meaning that a traditional lineup is somewhere in the middle. So, there's a good chance that other factors like player morale and fan backlash actually outweigh the benefits of following this formula to the T.

 

So, really there's no big reason to stress about the lineup in general, but I think it is interesting to point out that there's a lot of evidence to suggest that the 3 hole is the best place for Dunn in our lineup. If you've been frustrated thinking that a high average guy should be there (like maybe Rios), take comfort knowing that we're probably better off the way we've been doing it.

Edited January 1, 201313 yr by Eminor3rd

Indeed, I believe he did.

 

 

 

Yeah it doesn't appear to be something that is widely accepted. If GMs know about it, they probably don't consider it valuable enough to force their managers' hands. The thing I didn't mention before is that while the evidence is really strong that this is the best way to optimize the lineup, it also showed that the difference between how much a traditionally optimized lineup would score compared to a "sabermetrically optimized lineup" really isn't all that much. On average, I think the difference between a horrible lineup construction and the best was something like 2 wins, meaning that a traditional lineup is somewhere in the middle. So, there's a good chance that other factors like player morale and fan backlash actually outweigh the benefits of following this formula to the T.

 

So, really there's no big reason to stress about the lineup in general, but I think it is interesting to point out that there's a lot of evidence to suggest that the 3 hole is the best place for Dunn in our lineup. If you've been frustrated thinking that a high average guy should be there (like maybe Rios), take comfort knowing that we're probably better off the way we've been doing it.

Keep in mind Adam Dunn, despite leading the league in walks, from Memorial Day on, got on base around the same clip Gordon Beckham reached from that point. I read an article that he had the 2nd least productive season of anyone who has hit 40+ homers.

Keep in mind Adam Dunn, despite leading the league in walks, from Memorial Day on, got on base around the same clip Gordon Beckham reached from that point. I read an article that he had the 2nd least productive season of anyone who has hit 40+ homers.

 

Like Eminor3rd said, Dunn needs to have something like a .350 OBP to be truly productive. So really, if he hits .220 to .230, he'll be fine. Too bad he hit .200 last year.

Keep in mind Adam Dunn, despite leading the league in walks, from Memorial Day on, got on base around the same clip Gordon Beckham reached from that point. I read an article that he had the 2nd least productive season of anyone who has hit 40+ homers.

 

 

Like Eminor3rd said, Dunn needs to have something like a .350 OBP to be truly productive. So really, if he hits .220 to .230, he'll be fine. Too bad he hit .200 last year.

 

Right -- I'm not in love with how his season ended up. I wish he would have been better. But I think he still has it in him and we're just not getting enough production anywhere else to supplant him.

Like Eminor3rd said, Dunn needs to have something like a .350 OBP to be truly productive. So really, if he hits .220 to .230, he'll be fine. Too bad he hit .200 last year.

 

 

Right -- I'm not in love with how his season ended up. I wish he would have been better. But I think he still has it in him and we're just not getting enough production anywhere else to supplant him.

How many hits do you guys think the shift took away from Dunn? 10 potential hits would've been 19 batting average points.

How many hits do you guys think the shift took away from Dunn? 10 potential hits would've been 19 batting average points.

 

I disagree with the notion of the shift taking hits away from Dunn. It's not like they moved into the shift after he swung the bat. He knew it was there and still hit into it. That's not gonna change in the future, so let's not act like he's a victim. Those 10 potential hits aren't gonna happen.

I disagree with the notion of the shift taking hits away from Dunn. It's not like they moved into the shift after he swung the bat. He knew it was there and still hit into it. That's not gonna change in the future, so let's not act like he's a victim. Those 10 potential hits aren't gonna happen.

 

Yeah, you really can't give Dunn the benefit of the doubt in the case of the shift. Teams do it to him all the time, it's not like it's completely random. He simply needs to adjust to it. Although for Dunn, he's probably swinging for a home run every time up. It just so happens some of them end up on the ground.

Yeah, you really can't give Dunn the benefit of the doubt in the case of the shift. Teams do it to him all the time, it's not like it's completely random. He simply needs to adjust to it. Although for Dunn, he's probably swinging for a home run every time up. It just so happens some of them end up on the ground.

 

The thing is, with the kind of power Dunn has, he can still swing for the fences to CF or even LF, and be just as powerful. Its not like the guy ever hits cheapies. If he gets it, it goes 400+

The thing is, with the kind of power Dunn has, he can still swing for the fences to CF or even LF, and be just as powerful. Its not like the guy ever hits cheapies. If he gets it, it goes 400+

The wierd thing about guys who get the shift...a lot of times, they do spray the ball to all fields in the air, but it's only when they hit it on the ground that it is biased to one side.

 

The wierd thing about guys who get the shift...a lot of times, they do spray the ball to all fields in the air, but it's only when they hit it on the ground that it is biased to one side.

They had a similar shift for Baines, but the outfielders played him the other way.

The wierd thing about guys who get the shift...a lot of times, they do spray the ball to all fields in the air, but it's only when they hit it on the ground that it is biased to one side.

 

 

They had a similar shift for Baines, but the outfielders played him the other way.

 

Its bat angle on impact. Thome was the same way too. And tall guys like Dunn have that happen more often, as well as guys who start hands-high. Will Clark is a more classic example, though he was good at spraying line drives the other way on occasion. The head of the bat is lower relative to the grip on the way through the zone, so if you think about the physics, it makes sense that if they are on top, it will go pull-side, and underneath will go push-side.

 

Didn't they have a left handed catcher? That hit pretty decent last year?

Didn't they have a left handed catcher? That hit pretty decent last year?

 

No, Ben Davis hasn't played since 2004

No, Ben Davis hasn't played since 2004

 

And he was awful when he played.

And he was awful when he played.

You take that back.

And he was awful when he played.

 

Tsk tsk

I hope the Sox make a trade for Carlos Gonzalez

I hope the Sox make a trade for Carlos Gonzalez

Ditto! The dude can play ball! Hell at this point I would be happy to see Hahn make some sort of bold move. This team pretty much as is fell short of Detroit, now you take away AJ's run production, I think we even have a tougher hill to climb.

Ditto! The dude can play ball! Hell at this point I would be happy to see Hahn make some sort of bold move. This team pretty much as is fell short of Detroit, now you take away AJ's run production, I think we even have a tougher hill to climb.

 

We might have fallen behind KC as well.

 

 

 

 

 

We might have fallen behind KC as well.

Won't believe it till I see it. There have been moves (and non-moves) made by both sides, but I don't see those being enough to make up 13 games.

I hope the Sox make a trade for Carlos Gonzalez

 

Looking at his career .735 OPS away from home, Hahn better make sure COL includes Coors Field in the trade