Let's talk about Adam Dunn destinations

[2nd_city_saint787]

From a few weeks ago....

 

Orioles manager Buck Showalter told reporters (including MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko) that "we would have liked, in a perfect world, to have [Mark Reynolds] back" this season. "I know our guys liked Mark. He's a good teammate, a good guy, an easy guy to manage. We'd like to have had him, but it just didn't work out," Showalter said. Reynolds signed with the Indians last winter and took a .741 OPS and 14 homers into tonight's action, so while the O's could've used Reynolds at DH, they're very set at the corner infield spots thanks to Manny Machado and Chris Davis.

 

 

If money isn't an issue with the Orioles then this would somewhat confirm that they'd be interested in Dunn. He's been much better than Reynolds this year and has actually struck out less.....

 

But the Orioles professional hitters have never seen or want to be around such ineptitude right greg?

[Eminor3rd]

Yes, and the difference between OPS and the more advanced saber-stats is that while OPS does not tell the whole story, it's still a rate stat easy to compute and understand, along the same vein as AVG.

 

I'm still a little bit leery of using stuff like WAR and RC, because once you start making adjustments for things like park factor and such, you are introducing some margin of error.

 

Then wOBA is just for you! No league or park adjustment, just straight linear weights calculated from run environment.

Edited July 17, 2013 by Eminor3rd

[southsider2k5]

If you went out this December and tried to sign a FA 1B/DH who you expected to put up a .350 OBP and .490 SLG, how much do you think it would take?

 

But you aren't getting that from Adam Dunn except on a sample size basis. In 2.5 years here, he has a .316 OBP and a .407 SLG. Even throwing out '11, his best numbers are .333 OBP last year, and .474 SLG this year.

 

[TaylorStSox]

Another thing to keep in mind with Dunn is that hitters with his power no longer grow on trees. That power will be more valuable going forward. He's still an instant impact game changer. Lets not forget he also led the league in walks last year.

[Dick Allen]

From a few weeks ago....

 

 

 

 

If money isn't an issue with the Orioles then this would somewhat confirm that they'd be interested in Dunn. He's been much better than Reynolds this year and has actually struck out less.....

 

But the Orioles professional hitters have never seen or want to be around such ineptitude right greg?

The thing is money is an issue with everyone. Any team would take Adam Dunn for the minimum. One team will take Adam Dunn for $15 million, and that is because they are contractually obligated.

[Dick Allen]

Another thing to keep in mind with Dunn is that hitters with his power no longer grow on trees. That power will be more valuable going forward. He's still an instant impact game changer. Lets not forget he also led the league in walks last year.

Well, I read how good Dunn is, how good Rios is, how Cardinal fans would love Ramirez. Why do people want the Sox to rebuild? They apparently are stacked.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Another thing to keep in mind with Dunn is that hitters with his power no longer grow on trees. That power will be more valuable going forward. He's still an instant impact game changer. Lets not forget he also led the league in walks last year.

 

 

Stop yourself. Him leading the league in walks doesn't fit the narrative.

[iamshack]

Fair criticism!

 

For wRC+, league average is always set to 100, and each point represents a 1% deviation. So, Adam Dunn's wRC+ is currently 110, meaning he is hitting 10% better than league average. Shockingly, 2013 DH's are averaging a just 107 wRC+ so far. This number is park-adjusted.

 

wOBA works more like slash stats. It is scaled to be roughly equal to OBP, so if you're trying to judge a good or bad wOBA, ask yourself how you'd judge it if it was OBP. Adam Dunn's wOBA this year is .339, which you can compare directly to other players without the context of league average or park adjustment or whatever.

What was his wRC+ last year?

[2nd_city_saint787]

The thing is money is an issue with everyone. Any team would take Adam Dunn for the minimum. One team will take Adam Dunn for $15 million, and that is because they are contractually obligated.

 

 

 

Well if our very own Bucket-o-suck truly does have connections he said the Sox are willing to throw in money to get back better players.

 

Personally though, if the Sox wanna compete next year I'd keep him. If they wanna rebuild then chip in however much money you need to to get a proper return for a guy who is doing exactly what a team should expect.

[hammerhead johnson]

But you aren't getting that from Adam Dunn except on a sample size basis. In 2.5 years here, he has a .316 OBP and a .407 SLG. Even throwing out '11, his best numbers are .333 OBP last year, and .474 SLG this year.

 

You know that Eminor is gonna blow a gasket if you keep quoting these primitive OBP and SLG numbers, correct?

[southsider2k5]

You know that Eminor is gonna blow a gasket if you keep quoting these primitive OBP and SLG numbers, correct?

 

You do read right? That post was in reply to another post which asked a question related to those numbers.

[Eminor3rd]

What was his wRC+ last year?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...;position=1B/OF

 

115, average DH was 113.

[Eminor3rd]

You know that Eminor is gonna blow a gasket if you keep quoting these primitive OBP and SLG numbers, correct?

 

Haha I'm not going to blow a gasket, I'm just frustrated because there's so much disagreement on Dunn's production because he's so good at some things and so bad at others. The arguments are really good and important ones, except that someone already came up with a way to settle them and I want people to know that they are available so we can all agree and have a picnic together in the parking lot at USCF

[witesoxfan]

Haha I'm not going to blow a gasket, I'm just frustrated because there's so much disagreement on Dunn's production because he's so good at some things and so bad at others. The arguments are really good and important ones, except that someone already came up with a way to settle them and I want people to know that they are available so we can all agree and have a picnic together in the parking lot at USCF

 

I don't like picnics, I want to have pool party

[Eminor3rd]

I don't like picnics, I want to have pool party

 

Sounds like someone needs to start a poll thread!

[Dick Allen]

So if you look at his advanced numbers, and his outdated OPS numbers, even with all his strikeouts, and all his home runs, Adam Dunn in each circumstance comes out at about an average to slightly better than average DH. Teams don't pay those guys $15 million a year if they have a choice, let alone give you something of value for the opportunity.

[Eminor3rd]

So if you look at his advanced numbers, and his outdated OPS numbers, even with all his strikeouts, and all his home runs, Adam Dunn in each circumstance comes out at about an average to slightly better than average DH. Teams don't pay those guys $15 million a year if they have a choice, let alone give you something of value for the opportunity.

 

Agreed. Adam Dunn probably only has value to someone if the Sox pick up substantial money. A team with a really bad 1B or DH would, for example, probably be willing to pay an Adam Dunn $7m or so.

[southsider2k5]

Haha I'm not going to blow a gasket, I'm just frustrated because there's so much disagreement on Dunn's production because he's so good at some things and so bad at others. The arguments are really good and important ones, except that someone already came up with a way to settle them and I want people to know that they are available so we can all agree and have a picnic together in the parking lot at USCF

 

I don't buy that today's advanced stats have settled anything. I'd bet money in five or ten years, there will be another generation of new stats to replace the current crop and fix all of the biases and bugs in the one's today. At the end of the day, all of the numbers are going to have some level of bias built in, if for no other reason, than what does the person who created them feel is important. In baseball, there is no one right answer for that question. All of these numbers tell a story.

[witesoxfan]

Agreed. Adam Dunn probably only has value to someone if the Sox pick up substantial money. A team with a really bad 1B or DH would, for example, probably be willing to pay an Adam Dunn $7m or so.

 

Well that's odd, because there's a team out there that's a game back from a playoff spot and 4.5 back from the division lead that has splits of .197/.261/.382/.643 from their DH slot this year, and I know OPS is only for cave men but there's enough of a reference point here and that it says "they suck even if they played against a 12 man defense so I am going to post the OPS because suck it!"

 

Of course, I am talking about the Orioles.

[Eminor3rd]

I don't buy that today's advanced stats have settled anything. I'd bet money in five or ten years, there will be another generation of new stats to replace the current crop and fix all of the biases and bugs in the one's today. At the end of the day, all of the numbers are going to have some level of bias built in, if for no other reason, than what does the person who created them feel is important. In baseball, there is no one right answer for that question. All of these numbers tell a story.

 

But that's the very nature of knowledge! In ten years, we may discover something about quantum physics that makes Newton's laws obsolete, but that doesn't change the fact that Newton's laws are currently the best and most useful set of axioms with which to explain and predict physical reality.

 

Numbers aren't biased themselves, but use of them certainly can be. You're right that they all tell a different story and have different uses. What I'm trying to say is this:

 

1. wOBA/wRC+ are precisely the correct numbers to answer the questions about net offensive value that people are asking about Adam Dunn.

 

2. OPS attempts to do the same thing, but is way worse at it. Like there isn't a situation where OPS would be a better measure of anything than wOBA/wRC+. I think batting average, for example, is a more useful stat because at least there isn;t a clearly better analog that tells you the exact same thing as batting average.

[Dick Allen]

I don't buy that today's advanced stats have settled anything. I'd bet money in five or ten years, there will be another generation of new stats to replace the current crop and fix all of the biases and bugs in the one's today. At the end of the day, all of the numbers are going to have some level of bias built in, if for no other reason, than what does the person who created them feel is important. In baseball, there is no one right answer for that question. All of these numbers tell a story.

I don't buy it either. How many players have a bad avg. bad obp bad OPS but are good with the advanced and vice versa? Every number will have flaws, and the goal really isn't to value what they did in the past but to put a value on what they will do in the future, and as hard as they try, no one has that formula locked down yet. What should it matter if Adam Dunn was worth 1.8 wins in 2012 or 1.4? What matters is his next AB.

Edited July 17, 2013 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

Well that's odd, because there's a team out there that's a game back from a playoff spot and 4.5 back from the division lead that has splits of .197/.261/.382/.643 from their DH slot this year, and I know OPS is only for cave men but there's enough of a reference point here and that it says "they suck even if they played against a 12 man defense so I am going to post the OPS because suck it!"

 

Of course, I am talking about the Orioles.

 

Indeed. The Orioles are an example of a team that could get a ton of value from Adam Dunn if the Sox picked up some of that salary. The Rays could, too, but you;d have to assume that you;d need to pick up nearly all of the salary, and anyway they might still get nervous because of the whole Pat Burrell thing, lol.

[cabiness42]

Then wOBA is just for you! No league or park adjustment, just straight linear weights calculated from run environment.

 

What is the universe from which the weights are created? All of MLB history? The last 10 years? The last year? There's still some subjectivity there in deciding that part of it, but I agree that wOBA is better than most.

 

[Eminor3rd]

How many players have a bad avg. bad obp bad OPS but are good with the advanced and vice versa?

 

I would say the answer is very few, and it would be those who add extraordinary amounts of value on defense and on the basepaths

 

What should it matter if Adam Dunn was worth 1.8 wins in 2012 or 1.4? What matters is his next AB.

 

You're totally right, but these numbers we're talking about don't attempt to do that just like BA and OPS don't attempt to do that. It's totally fair to want to be able to use a stat to predict the future, but that doesn't have anything to do with wOBA being a more precise and accurate measure of value than OPS, because those are all descriptive statistics.

Edited July 17, 2013 by Eminor3rd

[witesoxfan]

All stats are flawed by OPS is extremely flawed. I use it because it's simple, widely reported, and gives a base guideline. I also take into consideration the differences in value between two similar OPS's,

 

Taking just what guys do at the plate into consideration here - Adam Dunn has a .791 OPS, Jacoby Ellsbury .790. Logic says that Dunn should have created more runs in general - a microscopic measure, but more nonetheless - yet Ellsbury has been signficantly more valuable simply with a bat in his hands because Ellsbury has been on base about 40 more times than Dunn (don't have the exact number but it's good enough).