I mean on his OPS numbers.

 

I figure the shift takes about 20 to 30 points off his batting average each year. That is about 10-15 hits (mostly singles). If I assume all singles and add 15 hits that improves his OPS last year to about .842 and this year to about .859.

I don't understand how "the shift" can be used as an excuse for decreased productivity. Isn't the name of the game to hit the ball where the defense isn't? When he steps in the batters box, the defense is already lined up in the shift. I don't buy that it's bad luck for him, it is up to him to adjust. They shift for David Ortiz and he seems to be doing fine.

I'm not arguing that it is an excuse for decreased productivity. Just pointing out that the League has made an adjustment to his hitting pattern that might have affected his production.

Oh, well I'm sure the shift has affected his AVG (and thus his OBP and SLG), but at this point in his career, his HOF ticket is more or less his home run total.

 

I would argue that his HOF tickets was ALWAYS more or less his homerun total.

I don't understand how "the shift" can be used as an excuse for decreased productivity. Isn't the name of the game to hit the ball where the defense isn't? When he steps in the batters box, the defense is already lined up in the shift. I don't buy that it's bad luck for him, it is up to him to adjust. They shift for David Ortiz and he seems to be doing fine.

Exactly. There is a shift for every hitter. It's just not as extreme, except for Ted Williams. Check out his numbers. Dunn is only 438 ks away from being the all time leader.

Edited August 13, 201312 yr by Dick Allen

I would argue that his HOF tickets was ALWAYS more or less his homerun total.

Right, but in order to earn the PAs he needs to get to 600 home runs, he needs to be viewed as a productive player. Balta was pointing out the decline in his OPS numbers as evidence of his decline from a skills perspective. I was merely asking a question about whether that production might have been affected by the shift.

 

 

His OPS has improved from age 31 to age 32 and from age 32 to age 33. While he is obviously not going to keep improving at his age, barring a 2011 type collapse I don't see any reason why he can't keep putting up .800+ OPSs for the next 5 years. He should be hitting his 500th early on in 2015 at the age of 35. You honestly don't think if he has 500 homers at age 35 he can hang on for 600? They put Killebrew and his .256 average in during a time when batting average was still the go to stat. Dunn will likely end up with more hits, runs, 2Bs, HRs, RBIs, and walks.

 

 

The issue he is while he find enough at-bats in his upper 30s to reach 600? The DH-only slugger isn't as prevalent in today's baseball. Teams value defense more and like to move guys in and out of the DH spot to use as rest days. Even if he stays productive, he may not see as many ABs in the future.

For what it's worth, I plugged Dunn's numbers into the Bill James Career Assessment tool. It gives Dunn a 50% of hitting 600 homers. If he can hit 35 next year his chances go up to 72%.

Exactly. There is a shift for every hitter. It's just not as extreme, except for Ted Williams. Check out his numbers. Dunn is only 438 ks away from being the all time leader.

 

In an era where strikeouts are, overwhelmingly, at an all-time high across both leagues.

The issue he is while he find enough at-bats in his upper 30s to reach 600? The DH-only slugger isn't as prevalent in today's baseball. Teams value defense more and like to move guys in and out of the DH spot to use as rest days. Even if he stays productive, he may not see as many ABs in the future.

 

As long as he's putting up an .800+ OPS against RHP, he's going to have at least a part time job.

Even if Dunn hits 600 homers, unless he has some crazy unheard of seasons, I pin his chances of the HOF at about 0%.

I'm not arguing that it is an excuse for decreased productivity. Just pointing out that the League has made an adjustment to his hitting pattern that might have affected his production.

 

Ok, gotcha. I agree that it could affect his production. But some people (namely Hawk) act like he gets "robbed" everytime he hits into the shift, like it's unfair that the 2nd basebam is playing in a different spot. Drives me crazy.

In an era where strikeouts are, overwhelmingly, at an all-time high across both leagues.

Everyone above him has played at least 5 seasons more than him. He can make a mockery of the records.

 

Jackson 2597 k 11,418 plate appearances

Thome 2548 k 10,313 plate appearances

Sosa 2306 k 9,896 plate appearances

Dunn 2159 k 7,668 plate appearances

Edited August 13, 201312 yr by Dick Allen

Everyone above him has played at least 5 seasons more than him. He can make a mockery of the records.

 

Jackson 2597 k 11,418 plate appearances

Thome 2548 k 10,313 plate appearances

Sosa 2306 k 9,896 plate appearances

Dunn 2159 k 7,668 plate appearances

 

Those guys are still all from an era where K rate was substantially lower.

 

Speaking of first basemen, Justin Morneau was put on waivers.

 

 

Konerko is on waivers as well.

Speaking of first basemen, Justin Morneau was put on waivers.

Since he supposedly hates the Sox so much, the Sox should claim him just to make things interesting.

 

Also, it blocks other teams who may prefer him over Adam Dunn.

Since he supposedly hates the Sox so much, the Sox should claim him just to make things interesting.

 

Also, it blocks other teams who may prefer him over Adam Dunn.

Sox won't do it. Not a chance since he's an impending free agent and the Sox arent going to pay him the remaining salary on his contract for this year after just saving $4M from trading Rios early. Only contenders do what you suggest though I'm sure you weren't serious.

Daryl Van Schouwen ‏@CST_soxvan 20m

 

Since June 8, over 200 at-bats, White Sox DH-1B Adam Dunn has .419 on-base, .555 slugging, .974 OPS. 14 homers, 39 RBI.

As long as he's putting up an .800+ OPS against RHP, he's going to have at least a part time job.

Once this contract runs out, does he make the MLB minimum? Does he love baseball enough to play for 1-2 million a year? Judging from how he not so long ago was by far the worst hitter in baseball, I'd say nobody will pay him more than the basic salary. If the Sox can't trade him and his contract expires on the south side maybe the White Sox will be that team to give him 1-3 mill a year or a Keppinger-like deal.

Once this contract runs out, does he make the MLB minimum? Does he love baseball enough to play for 1-2 million a year? Judging from how he not so long ago was by far the worst hitter in baseball, I'd say nobody will pay him more than the basic salary. If the Sox can't trade him and his contract expires on the south side maybe the White Sox will be that team to give him 1-3 mill a year or a Keppinger-like deal.

If he hits 30-40 Hrs he will get a good contract probably 10 million. Power is at a premium now. It is not the same as before when many hitters hit .3o0 and 40 Hrs. Those are only the elite, as it should be.

You seem to think that our players can simply will themselves to good numbers.

The Will To Payday?

Only on Soxtalk would there be a serious conversation about Adam Dunn's HoF chances.

Only on Soxtalk would there be a serious conversation about Adam Dunn's HoF chances.

And on Bleacher Report, Yahoo, Fangraphs, FoxNews, and a number of other websites.

Only on Soxtalk would there be a serious conversation about Adam Dunn's HoF chances.

 

It'd be like putting Dave Kingman in the Hall. Kingman was the same as Dunn wasn't he? Pathetically bad for stretches with a ton of K's? Then he'd get hot and blast some bombs. Like Dunn, Kingman never played for a playoff team did he? Also didn't Kingman have years where his average was under .200 for a long long stretch?

Edited August 15, 201312 yr by greg775

Only on Soxtalk would there be a serious conversation about Adam Dunn's HoF chances.

Anytime someone gets near 500 HRs, 3,000 hits or 300 wins for a pitcher there will be HOF talk.

It'd be like putting Dave Kingman in the Hall. Kingman was the same as Dunn wasn't he? Pathetically bad for stretches with a ton of K's? Then he'd get hot and blast some bombs. Like Dunn, Kingman never played for a playoff team did he? Also didn't Kingman have years where his average was under .200 for a long long stretch?

 

Yea except for the fact that Dunn's OBP is 60 points higher and he already has just about as many homers and RBI' with another 5 or so years to add to those totals, but yea other than that exactly the same.