I realize a lot of these acquisitions need to pan out for this to be a good team, but looking at this team in it's current state, I am incredibly optimistic that they can atleast be a playoff contender next season. We still have one of the best pitching staffs in the AL and have shored up pretty much everywhere besides catcher in the field. I dont think this will be anywhere near a 90-99 loss team next season and I dont think the Central will be as strong this season. I like the moves KC has made this offseason, but they still have almost no starting pitching. I think Detroit has actually taken a step backwards losing Fielder, Fister, Infante, Benoit, and Veras. Why not next season?

Too much needs to go right for this team for the Sox to make the playoffs, the odds are really against us. I expect to see a 75-80 win team with current construction.

The potential is there but a lot of guys have to grow up really quick. 2015 seems like a more realistic goal.

I'll settle for watchable. Higher energy, better effort, better execution. And the young players to be good enough to start 150 games each.

 

It would take almost 100% health, Abreu to be some monster star player, and Ventura to prove he's a good manager for the Sox to win 90+ games.

It isn't about can/can't. They could, it would just require a TON to go exactly right.

 

This team will be better, probably a lot better, than last year. And more fun to watch. I don't doubt that.

 

If they could find a way to significantly upgrade at catcher (or get upgraded performance from existing players), if all the youngsters (Davidson, Eaton, anyone who may replace Beckham) perform close to projected ceiling, defense and baserunning improve, pitching stays healthy, and the veterans play up to expectations for the most part... then sure, this could be a playoff team. They seem to have the pitching for it.

 

But it is pretty unlikely ALL those things happen.

The Sox would need all of their young players (Davidson, Eaton, Johnson, Abreu, Dayan, etc.) to break out and produce if we are to have any chance of competing.

Edited December 19, 201312 yr by chw42

Lack overall depth, lack pitching, and without major improvement, will be undermanned at C and LF.

Because some of these kids are going to bust permanently and others will take more than 1 year to learn the bigs.

 

Also they may not contend if they have the same level of focus/discipline/coaching as we saw from the 2013 white sox.

This team is going to struggle in the early part of the season. They will probably not bring all these young guys with them to Chicago out of ST, some will go to Charlotte. They will also fade down the stretch and young pitchers will hit walls. Young position players will have to learn to adjust to off-field MLB life, media and public pressure, etc. It's not going to happen.

 

The team, I agree, will probably be much more fun to watch, but fans are going to need to be patient with some of these guys & patience here is....? There's no patience here.

 

If things go right IMO we're looking at a fun-to-root-far underdog WildCard contender in 2015 and hopefully a stacked roster looking for a deep postseason run in 2016. And given where we were that would be an absolutely terrific job by the entire Sox organization if they can pull that off. So far they're looking pretty good.

Doesn't every team that wins require everything to go right? If things didn't go right they wouldn't win.

It CAN contend. It just probably won't.

 

But there's a chance, and that'll make it fun to watch. Better still, you'll be able to enjoy it knowing that the team on the field is going to keep getting better instead of falling off a cliff as a last hurrah like last year.

 

Next year is going to be a better year for the fans, very little doubt in my mind.

Because they aren't very good.

We lost a ton of major league talent that already lost 99 games. If we can avoid 90 losses you should be surprised.

Here is what I believe you need

 

#1 - a strong, top 5 pitching staff, #1 through #12. They need to stay rather healthy, they need to all perform to their relative ceilings, and they need the fill-ins to perform pretty well too. If the team ERA is around 3.50-3.75, that will be fine. The biggest factors in this will be the 3-4-5 of the rotation (is Johnson ready? can Danks peform? is Paulino really healthy? what of Rienzo?), the "front" of the bullpen (can Petricka/Webb/Veal/whoever get through innings 5 and 6 without letting runs pile on? can they effectively eat innings in blow outs to prevent guys like Downs, Lindstrom, Belisario, and [closer] from having to be used?), and the closer (just who is it going to be?).

 

#2 - a league average or better offense. Again, this is about health, but more than that, it's about guys actually performing. Unlike most, I think they can compete with a few guys underperforming, but it absolutely can't be a repeat of last year. The biggest factors here will be Abreu (is he the stud, top 5 best hitters in the world like his preceding reputation suggests, or is he more of an .800-.850 OPS kind of guy?), the young guys (can they assimilate quickly to being contributing members to a team like this, or will there be struggles and breakdowns as the year goes on?), developments in the minors (will guys who are performing get their chances to actually take the spots of struggling players? Will Ventura and Hahn have a quick hook on those guys who have been given multiple chances before?), and the production of platoon/bench players (will Konerko/Dunn be as effective as it should be? will Phegley/Flowers/Nieto/Gimenez/[insert catcher] be able to handle themselves offensively?)

 

#3 - a good defense all around. Simply put, without going into the factors, if the defense is closer to 2012 than 2013, the team will be solid; if it's closer to 2013 than 2012, Ventura should be fired midseason, if not sooner.

 

Assuming good defense, I can see a team like this competing:

 

Eaton - .270/.350/.400

Ramirez - .270/.330/.370

Dunn - .240/.340/.500 (350-450 PAs); Konerko - .300/.375/.475 (125-150 PAs)

Abreu - .300/.400/.500

Garcia - .280/.330/.445

Viciedo - .260/.310/.440

Beckham - .260/.320/.380

Davidson - .230/.300/.425

[catcher] - .240/.300/.375

 

Sale - 220 IP, 3.00 ERA

Quintana - 210 IP, 3.25 ERA

Johnson - 180 IP, 3.75 ERA

Danks - 200 IP, 4.00 ERA

Paulino/whoever - 180 IP, 4.00 ERA

 

bullpen ERA - 3.00

 

I don't think any of that is unreasonable, and I think some guys can improve on those numbers, but I don't think all of the guys reaching those numbers is likely at all.

It can, but like others said everything needs to go right.

 

Abreu would have to be "The Best Hitter on the Planet" like Grantland called him.

Viciedo would have to hit .260ish with about 25 HR

Eaton would have to be at least .275 with a .350 OBP and terror on the paths.

Davidson would have to mash around 25 HR.

Alexei would have to find his power return a bit and focus on defense more.

Gordon would have to hit like he did last year when not injured.

AviGar would have to be a strong middle of the order bat.

Dunn would have to be Dunn pre-White Sox.

Whoever is catcher would have to not suck.

 

Sale and Q are fine but could improve, Danks needs to rebound to 2008 form, EJ and Rienzo/Paulino have to be good #4s and #5s.

 

Bullpen would have to click.

The biggest area of concern is not enough quality innings from the starters

Lack overall depth, lack pitching, and without major improvement, will be undermanned at C and LF.

Depth and catcher I'll give you, disagree on pitching and at the moment we are overmanned in lf.

 

 

As for the pitching worries, all I'm concerned about is the 5th spot of the rotation. EJ is going to be just fine this year and I think Danks bounces back big. And the bullpen will be fine.

I think the whole youth adjustment thing is slightly overblown. Ya, you definitely plan for an adjustment period, but these guys have mostly had a taste at this point and there are plenty of examples around the majors of under 25 year old players make big impacts.

The biggest area of concern is not enough quality innings from the starters.

As for the pitching worries, all I'm concerned about is the 5th spot of the rotation. EJ is going to be just fine this year and I think Danks bounces back big. And the bullpen will be fine.

 

My bold prediction for this season is that Paulino is going to end the year as the 3rd best starter.

The biggest area of concern is not enough quality innings from the starters.

The White Sox were 4th in the AL in innings from their starters last year with a pretty solid ERA, and that's with Dylan Axelrod taking a starting role for 2 months.

I think the whole youth adjustment thing is slightly overblown. Ya, you definitely plan for an adjustment period, but these guys have mostly had a taste at this point and there are plenty of examples around the majors of under 25 year old players make big impacts.

 

Then we will have to worry about the league having made adjustments to them, but them not adjusting to the league. That's why you see sophomore slumps.

 

Besides, guys like Beckham, Rowand, and Crede have given all of us false hope in the past after initially showing great success. You can understand why Sox fans are leery.

The biggest area of concern is not enough quality innings from the starters.

 

I think there are a TON of unknowns on this team -- I'd put Sp, bullpen, offense, and defense as equally concerning. Lots of new players, lots of guys expected to bounce back to some degree.

 

It's really a huge unknown.

I hope Sox can contend, but 2014 is going to be growing pains type year and that is fine with me. Starting in 2015 and hopefully for longtime after be right in the mix. I really like the direction and future of the Sox under Hahn.