I skipped some of the conversation, but the key things to think about regarding "clutch" are definitional.

 

If Abreu is a 1.000 OPS hitter in a neutral situation, is he a choker when his OPS is .850 in the clutch? What if he's at 1.000 OPS?

 

If Leury is a .550 OPS hitter normally and .700 OPS in the clutch, is he a really clutch hitter?

 

There's your first problem. When defining clutch, are we measuring a hitter against himself or against the league? Chances are, even if Abreu was "not clutch" insofar as he was a significantly worse hitter than he normally is in clutch situations, he'd still be the best choice in a clutch situation.

 

The other big problem in terms of definitions is deciding what constitutes a clutch situation. Often, "late and close" is used as a surrogate for clutch spots. This means 7th or later, batting team is ahead by one run, tied, or losing by an amount such that the tying run is at least on deck. Of course, you wouldn't say an Abreu strikeout to lead off the 7th of a game when we're losing by 1 constitutes a choke. Sometimes you could argue it was productive if his presence caused the team to use a righty against Dunn. Anyways, we often see that a play becomes clutch after the fact; there was no particular pressure to succeed in this hypothetical situation, but if he hit a bomb we'd probably label it an example of his acumen in the clutch.

 

RISP is another surrogate, but suffers from some of the same pitfalls. Do we start patting Tyler Flowers on the back for a bloop single with nobody out and the bases loaded in the second inning? So clutch! Then again, maybe that is clutch. It's more clutch than most other singles.

 

If you narrow the definition of clutch too much, you end up making all claims about the clutch borderline unfalsifiable. PK is the most clutch hitter in history because he hits grand slams 100% of the time that he bats with the bases loaded in the World Series. You get the idea. You work with unbelievably small sample sizes and you start to fine tune your definition to prove your hypothesis rather than coming up with an idea of clutch and seeing if the data confirms your beliefs or not.

That is part of the problem. Defining what is clutch and what is not is difficult, the sample size is going to be small and unlike other sports, sample size can come into play more often because many outs occur during a good AB. I am just not sold and never will be, on situations not making a difference on any hitter's performance.

I never fell for his act. You can see by my post I am no fan of his nonsense as some in this thread are.

 

Reading what you think about his fandom, you fell for his act.

I listen plenty since Theo has showed up it has been a love fest from Dan, Theo the man with the plan does no wrong. His positive comments on the Sox have been very few.

 

 

Theo is really smart and I agree with what he is doing as well. He will get it turned around if the owner doesn't get in his way. Bernstein isn't wrong about that praise. Rick Hahn is another smart, forward thinking GM that Bernstein has applauded many times. Bernstein has stated many times how good of a job Hahn has done and how the team is in good hands. Go on hearing what you'd like to hear though.

Theo is really smart and I agree with what he is doing as well. He will get it turned around if the owner doesn't get in his way. Bernstein isn't wrong about that praise. Rick Hahn is another smart, forward thinking GM that Bernstein has applauded many times. Bernstein has stated many times how good of a job Hahn has done and how the team is in good hands. Go on hearing what you'd like to hear though.

I think you're one of the more intelligent posters on this site, but I find your faith in Theo to be unfounded. He's rebuilding the Cubs in small market fashion because he no longer has the loopholes that were available to him while in Boston. I'm not very impressed by that, look at some of the moves Rick Hahn has made in the past 12 months. He's been able to add a significant amount of young talent to our offense in a short period of time by being both creative and willing to take calculated risks. I have not seen Theo do much during his tenure so far that made me say "Wow, that was a smart move".

 

Don't get me wrong, I think Theo is a very smart guy, but so are the vast majority of GMs in baseball right now. His plan may end up working, but it's entirely dependent on a few minor leaguers becoming major league stars. As good as those prospects are, that's a big if IMO. And even if that happens, he'll have to compete in the division that has one of the best run franchises in baseball. To say that Theo "will get it turned around" with this much confidence is incredibly premature. That's the same issue with Bernstein as he honestly believes Epstein's plan is foolproof.

Rizzo - 1.2 WAR 156 wRC+ .404 wOBA

Abreu - 1.2 WAR 147 wRC+ .392 wOBA

 

Maybe Bernstein was right after all!!! #funwithsamplesizes

On Theo: There are a lot of GM's who can succeed if given either time or resources. In Boston, he had the resources (PED's included). With the Cubs he has time and a LOT of it.

Long-term suck seems to be the main pillar of their rebuild. Not much brilliance in that, imo.

On Theo: There are a lot of GM's who can succeed if given either time or resources. In Boston, he had the resources (PED's included). With the Cubs he has time and a LOT of it.

 

You know, the organizations that have used the "time" rebuild really didnt come out better for it. It took the Pirates what, 25 years? The Royals still havent been in the playoffs. The Astros dont look any better for it.

 

And you are kidding yourself if you think Theo has a lot of time. He has HAD a lot of time, and the on field results have gotten bad, and the natives are getting restless. Sveum was offered as a sacrifice, but eventually the fans and owner will turn their attention to the planners if things dont start to change.

You know, the organizations that have used the "time" rebuild really didnt come out better for it. It took the Pirates what, 25 years? The Royals still havent been in the playoffs. The Astros dont look any better for it.

 

And you are kidding yourself if you think Theo has a lot of time. He has HAD a lot of time, and the on field results have gotten bad, and the natives are getting restless. Sveum was offered as a sacrifice, but eventually the fans and owner will turn their attention to the planners if things dont start to change.

 

Like I have said for years, how many times this sort of a rebuild actually worked?

Like I have said for years, how many times this sort of a rebuild actually worked?

The 1997 Marlins into the 2003 Marlins, led by Beckett (a top of the draft pick) does come to mind.

You know, the organizations that have used the "time" rebuild really didnt come out better for it. It took the Pirates what, 25 years? The Royals still havent been in the playoffs. The Astros dont look any better for it.

 

And you are kidding yourself if you think Theo has a lot of time. He has HAD a lot of time, and the on field results have gotten bad, and the natives are getting restless. Sveum was offered as a sacrifice, but eventually the fans and owner will turn their attention to the planners if things dont start to change.

Larry Himes totally rebuilt the White Sox in 3 years (4 drafts). They had a 94 win team with the lowest payroll in baseball. And he got fired.

 

But you are correct, most of these total dismantles wind up taking at least a decade. Although I don't see Ricketts telling Theo to hit the road any time soon.

The 1997 Marlins into the 2003 Marlins, led by Beckett (a top of the draft pick) does come to mind.

 

I can't see anyway that the Cubs can do this in six years, considering this is year 4.

I can't see anyway that the Cubs can do this in six years, considering this is year 4.

 

They could totally be competitive in 2.5 more years. If Rizzo remains legit, Lake/Olt take steps forward this year, and they have a good few callups in September, they're right on track for 6 years, actually. May not be likely, but it's certainly realistically possible.

They could totally be competitive in 2.5 more years. If Rizzo remains legit, Lake/Olt take steps forward this year, and they have a good few callups in September, they're right on track for 6 years, actually. May not be likely, but it's certainly realistically possible.

 

That is an assload of "if's". Especially since their ace is probably getting dealt here in a month or two.

That is an assload of "if's". Especially since their ace is probably getting dealt here in a month or two.

 

Of course, all plans are made entirely of if's. I'm just saying as it stands today, if things go the way they hope, contention is definitely plausible in year six.

Of course, all plans are made entirely of if's. I'm just saying as it stands today, if things go the way they hope, contention is definitely plausible in year six.

 

Except they really have no pitching at all after Smarj gets dealt.

Except they really have no pitching at all after Smarj gets dealt.

 

They've got two solid mid guys in Edwin Jackson and Travis Wood, they've got CJ Edwards, Steven Pierce, and Arodys Vizcaino on the farm, a glut of OF prospects to trade, and you'd expect they'd be active in free agency if they felt they were on the verge. Again, it may not all work out, but they presumably plan for it to work out, and if it does, 2.5 from now is realistic.

 

Also, generally speaking, I think there are very few teams with no realistic chance of being competitive 3 seasons from any given point. So if you disagree with that, we may just have different thresholds for "realistic chance."

Edited May 9, 201411 yr by Eminor3rd

They've got two solid mid guys in Edwin Jackson and Travis Wood, they've got CJ Edwards, Steven Pierce, and Arodys Vizcaino on the farm, a glut of OF prospects to trade, and you'd expect they'd be active in free agency if they felt they were on the verge. Again, it may not all work out, but they presumably plan for it to work out, and if it does, 2.5 from now is realistic.

 

Also, generally speaking, I think there are very few teams with no realistic chance of being competitive 3 seasons from any given point. So if you disagree with that, we may just have different thresholds for "realistic chance."

I think you mean Pierce Johnson. Also, Vizcaino won't be a starter anytime soon, if ever.

I think you mean Pierce Johnson. Also, Vizcaino won't be a starter anytime soon, if ever.

 

Oh yeah, Steven Pearce is the AAAA first baseman, right? lol whoops

You know, the organizations that have used the "time" rebuild really didnt come out better for it. It took the Pirates what, 25 years? The Royals still havent been in the playoffs. The Astros dont look any better for it.

 

And you are kidding yourself if you think Theo has a lot of time. He has HAD a lot of time, and the on field results have gotten bad, and the natives are getting restless. Sveum was offered as a sacrifice, but eventually the fans and owner will turn their attention to the planners if things dont start to change.

 

I did not say organizations, I said GM's. If a GM, team president is given the type of job security Theo has there's a good chance they will succeed.

 

I think you're off-base if you think the clock has even started ticking on Theo. If these prospects all fail three years in to their major league careers you might start hearing whispers about letting him go, otherwise no chance.

Dan Bernstein wrote another White Sox related column today. It is right here: http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2014/05/30/ber...wers-white-sox/

Dan Bernstein wrote another White Sox related column today. It is right here: http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2014/05/30/ber...wers-white-sox/

 

Just your annual "here's what you've missed, Blackhawks fans" post. No juicy Soxtalk controversy forthcoming, alas.

Boo hoo the Sox are getting national attention for once over the Cubs. Cry me a f***ing river Dickstein.

what

Boo hoo the Sox are getting national attention for once over the Cubs. Cry me a f***ing river Dickstein.

 

Huh?