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Keith Law's Midseason Top 50 Prospects


Y2Jimmy0
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http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/...0-mlb-prospects

 

Keith Law's Top 50 is Insider protected. Here are the top 10:

 

1. Kris Bryant 3B Cubs

2. Byron Buxton OF Twins

3. Carlos Corea SS Astros

4. Addison Russell SS Cubs

5. Corey Seager 3B Dodgers

6. Francisco Lindor SS Indians

7. Jonathan Gray RHP Rockies

8. Javier Baez SS Cubs

9. Archie Bradley RHP Arizona

 

10. Carlos Rodon LHP White Sox

Age: 21 | Current Level: Just drafted

 

Preseason Ranking: N/A

 

Rodon was the second-best prospect in this year's draft class, the best college player available, and one of the only players in the class with the ability to play in the majors this season. Rodon's slider is filthy, a grade-80 pitch in his best outings but more consistently a grade-70 pitch. It's a wipeout offering with late bite that I've seen hit 92 mph, even though his fastball is usually just 90-94. I can't imagine minor league hitters will be able to touch him. Rodon's stuff is so nasty he may not have to work much on fastball command or on developing a better changeup until he reaches the big leagues.

 

 

DM me if you want the rest of the list.

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QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 09:35 AM)
Any other Sox on there?

 

 

No I would have posted it. From the way Law has talked this year, I think Anderson and Micah would also be in the Top 100. It just wasn't posted. I'll ask Keith on twitter and see if he answers.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 09:37 AM)
Maybe it's just healthy skepticism, but how does Javier Baez remain in the top 10 with a batting line of .240/.305/.449/.753, a K/BB rate of 4, and a K rate of 31.6%?

 

I agree. I saw Jason Parks tweet about him saying what Baez' ceiling and floor were. His ceiling is MVP caliber but his floor his AAAA player.

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QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 09:42 AM)
I agree. I saw Jason Parks tweet about him saying what Baez' ceiling and floor were. His ceiling is MVP caliber but his floor his AAAA player.

 

I guess when you have MVP potential you should be ranked in the top 50 even if you are scuffling a bit. I'm surprised he didn't drop more though.

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Also surprised he ranked five 2014 draft picks in the top 50....seems high to me considering most have a extremely small sample size or none at all in professional baseball. I guess he believes it's an excellent draft class?

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QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 09:59 AM)
Also surprised he ranked five 2014 draft picks in the top 50....seems high to me considering most have a extremely small sample size or none at all in professional baseball. I guess he believes it's an excellent draft class?

I have no data to back this up, but I feel like that's not uncommon. Seems as though the top few picks in a just-finished draft always rank highly on the lists just by virtue of being top picks.

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Paul Goldschmidt was the MVP runner up last year, led the league in homers, won a gold glove and a silver slugger. He's having another great year this year too. He was also never ranked as a top 100 prospect.

 

Robinson Cano is considered the best 2B of this generation of players and he is widely considered the best in the game at his job now. He signed a $240 million contract over 10 years. However, he, too, was never a top 100 prospect.

 

These rankings are nice, and I'll never discourage them from being posted or discussed, but they are ultimately meaningless.

 

 

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 10:05 AM)
Paul Goldschmidt was the MVP runner up last year, led the league in homers, won a gold glove and a silver slugger. He's having another great year this year too. He was also never ranked as a top 100 prospect.

 

Robinson Cano is considered the best 2B of this generation of players and he is widely considered the best in the game at his job now. He signed a $240 million contract over 10 years. However, he, too, was never a top 100 prospect.

 

These rankings are nice, and I'll never discourage them from being posted or discussed, but they are ultimately meaningless.

 

The list goes on and on with guys who made it who were never highly ranked prospects, I agree Wite. Its an awesome thing about baseball, talent comes from all difference places at different times for everyone.

 

However, the overwhelming majority of stars were on these types of lists and while there are plenty of busts, it's still relevant.

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QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 10:35 AM)
The list goes on and on with guys who made it who were never highly ranked prospects, I agree Wite. Its an awesome thing about baseball, talent comes from all difference places at different times for everyone.

 

However, the overwhelming majority of stars were on these types of lists and while there are plenty of busts, it's still relevant.

 

The general mantra is just keep bringing in talent. You can target specific positions at the AAA and MLB levels to fill holes for the big club, but just keep infusing talent.

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QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 08:56 AM)
I guess when you have MVP potential you should be ranked in the top 50 even if you are scuffling a bit. I'm surprised he didn't drop more though.

I think folks here and elsewhere generally underrate the ego factor in the making of these lists. These guys are going to like who they liked before until they're absolutely proven to be wrong. See it all the time.

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 09:31 AM)
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/...0-mlb-prospects

 

Keith Law's Top 50 is Insider protected. Here are the top 10:

 

1. Kris Bryant 3B Cubs

2. Byron Buxton OF Twins

3. Carlos Corea SS Astros

4. Addison Russell SS Cubs

5. Corey Seager 3B Dodgers

6. Francisco Lindor SS Indians

7. Jonathan Gray RHP Rockies

8. Javier Baez SS Cubs

9. Archie Bradley RHP Arizona

 

10. Carlos Rodon LHP White Sox

Age: 21 | Current Level: Just drafted

 

Preseason Ranking: N/A

 

Rodon was the second-best prospect in this year's draft class, the best college player available, and one of the only players in the class with the ability to play in the majors this season. Rodon's slider is filthy, a grade-80 pitch in his best outings but more consistently a grade-70 pitch. It's a wipeout offering with late bite that I've seen hit 92 mph, even though his fastball is usually just 90-94. I can't imagine minor league hitters will be able to touch him. Rodon's stuff is so nasty he may not have to work much on fastball command or on developing a better changeup until he reaches the big leagues.

 

 

DM me if you want the rest of the list.

 

 

pretty impressive for Rodon to be a top 10 prospect in all of baseball already. We owe the Astros and Marlins an absolute huge favor and I think everyone will realize that within a couple years. Rodon-Sale-Q, could be something special like the A's had back in the early-mid 2000's (Zito, Mulder & Hudson)

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 11:47 AM)
To Keith Law's credit (can't believe I am saying that), he had a funny tweet during the ASG about Sale. Said something like "I told you Chris Sale was destined to be a reliever". He ate his crow.

 

He has. I've read Law answering questions about poor deliveries in prospects and saying something to the effect of "Well it worked out for Sale..."

 

Chris Sale's sucess has obviously rocked Keith Law to his very core. :P

Edited by southside hitman
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QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 12:37 PM)
He has. I've read Law answering questions about poor deliveries in prospects and saying something to the effect of "Well it worked out for Sale..."

 

Chris Sale's sucess has obviously rocked Keith Law to his very core. :P

 

I don't know, he wrote a pretty empassioned All-Star snub piece on Chris Sale that made him seem almost like a fanboy: http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/...ses-and-snubs-2

 

American League

 

Scott Kazmir or Mark Buehrle over Chris Sale: These two player selections are the dumbest of anything this year, and there's a fair amount of ridiculousness going on for both rosters, so the bar is high. Sale would be second in the league in ERA if he qualified, just .05 behind leader Felix Hernandez. He's sixth in the league in WAR and tenth in rWAR, despite having 20 fewer innings pitched than any of the pitchers ahead of him. He's 8-1 if you actually care about something as useless as a pitcher's won-lost record. And Sale was a top five pitcher in the league last year, too.

 

Did the players just look at the ERA rankings and forget Sale because he doesn't have enough innings to qualify (he's one inning short) for the chart? Is it really that hard to remember a guy who is a threat to win the Cy Young award if he can hold up for 200 innings?

 

I still think everything Law said about Sale in draft was totally reasonable. Sale DOES have a funky delivery, unconventional body, and a low arm slot. Those things typically lead to relievers with durability and platoon issues. We're all aware that flukey things happen and guys occasionally reach their ABSOLUTE ceilings like Sale has, but on paper (where, let's be honest, most of us are forced to get most of our info), Sale was a guy who ends up as a lefty-specialist 95%+ of the time. Sox gambled and won, and I'm glad they did and I'm glad to give the credit to their scouting dept., but it was still a gamble and thus the argument not to make the gamble in the first round is defensible.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 17, 2014 -> 11:48 AM)
I don't know, he wrote a pretty empassioned All-Star snub piece on Chris Sale that made him seem almost like a fanboy: http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/...ses-and-snubs-2

 

 

 

I still think everything Law said about Sale in draft was totally reasonable. Sale DOES have a funky delivery, unconventional body, and a low arm slot. Those things typically lead to relievers with durability and platoon issues. We're all aware that flukey things happen and guys occasionally reach their ABSOLUTE ceilings like Sale has, but on paper (where, let's be honest, most of us are forced to get most of our info), Sale was a guy who ends up as a lefty-specialist 95%+ of the time. Sox gambled and won, and I'm glad they did and I'm glad to give the credit to their scouting dept., but it was still a gamble and thus the argument not to make the gamble in the first round is defensible.

 

Actually, he's still getting better, across the board, so this is premature. While he's definitely regarded as one of the best in the game currently, his ABSOLUTE ceiling is the best-of-his-generation, IMO.

 

Kershaw is the guy with the best possibility of achieving that status, but does Clayton, or anyone, have more raw talent than Sale? I don't think so.

Edited by Stan Bahnsen
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