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Flowers and his magic glasses


southsider2k5
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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jul 29, 2014 -> 08:00 AM)
It's a completely unsustainable .243, and it's also come along with a collapse in his power. If he produces the same whiff rates next year we should be looking at about a .200 hitter.

Make that highly unsustainable .252 with an increase in his power since he's doubled his xtra base hits in 18 games.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 09:39 PM)
Make that highly unsustainable .252 with an increase in his power since he's doubled his xtra base hits in 18 games.

Overall picture on the power is still way down though. ISO has dropped from .160 to .126. It was down half to about .080, bound to rebound somewhat. He has looked better at the plate recently but I still think we should ought to be prepared for another extended dry spell.*

 

*analysis dependent on the glasses not being magic

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The key to the recent run has been that his K numbers haven't been unbelievably, remarkably, disgustingly high.

 

At the peak of his early season run he had 40% K rate. He couldn't have been "fixed" at that point because you can't be a singles hitter who fails to put the ball in play 4 out of 10 ABs

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I worship Tyler Flowers. That is all.

 

Not all. My gawd, what a stud. Why is he doing this? He is on fire still. I think a lot of people need to give him his due. The guy is nearing .260 for gosh sakes. That's totally acceptable considering his good arm.

Good job, Tyler.

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QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 06:00 AM)
if he ends up settling in at .250ish with moderate power (by moderate I mean number of HRs, not shear power...because the dude is strong) and decent defense, he'll be fine as the starting catcher.

He's hitting .252 with a .380 BABIP, he will not settle in at .250ish.

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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 06:27 AM)
He's hitting .252 with a .380 BABIP, he will not settle in at .250ish.

 

Have you ever watched a game, or do you just read fangraphs all day long. Watching Flowers at the plate lately, there is no reason to believe that he could not be a .250 hitter going forward.

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QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 06:59 AM)
Have you ever watched a game, or do you just read fangraphs all day long. Watching Flowers at the plate lately, there is no reason to believe that he could not be a .250 hitter going forward.

No, I watch the games too. In fact, I watched most of the 35 games from May 26th to June 12th where Flowers hit .089/.141/.143 over 120 plate appearances. It is by remembering those 35 games that I'm not going to overreact to the 15 games since. Add the 35 games and the 15 games and he's hitting .200/.250/.344 over his last 50.

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As Vance pointed out, Flowers' K rate has been around 25% since wearing the glasses. If he's in fact seeing the ball better now, that could change the discussion on Tyler's role going forward. Still too early to jump any conclusions, but I remain skeptical he'll be able to sustain his recent production. I would love for him to prove me wrong though.

Edited by Chicago White Sox
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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 06:27 AM)
He's hitting .252 with a .380 BABIP, he will not settle in at .250ish.

I disagree. It may be the glasses, or he may have changed his approach, but it's not looking like luck. I think there's a real possibility he could level out around .250.

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Dear Mr Magee,

 

I should probably do this in a PM but making definitive statement like "He will never settle in at .250 " comes off as arrogant . Now I know in your mind his history and stats tell you you're right with a high degree of certainty. Might I suggest that you say his stats and history "suggest" or "point towards " unsustainability.

 

Also you might not care that you sound arrogant but since you revealed that you never played the game or correct me if I'm wrong , haven't followed baseball for very long it appears doubly arrogant and that why sometimes people mention those things to you about having never played the game. Just throwing yourself into modern stats doesn''t make you a predictor of the future. A little humility goes a long way when dealing with hardcore fans who really don't want to hear there is no hope for a member of their favorite team . Hope is all we have most of the time so let a few of us hope Tyler can be more than his stats and history "suggest " that he is.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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He's hitting .252 with a .380 BABIP, he will not settle in at .250ish.

 

Those are full season stats, whereas the debate is whether or not using glasses if affecting his performance. We are going to need a larger post-glasses sample size before we can know for sure. If the premise is that glasses are affecting his performance, then his BABIP pre-glasses doesn't mean s***.

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QUOTE (sin city sox fan @ Jul 29, 2014 -> 10:42 AM)
I can't believe that Robin didn't ask him to start wearing glasses earlier in the season. He should have been told "either wear your glasses or go home"

I'm 99.9999 % sure he was wearing contacts before he went to the glasses and even he doesn't think its the glasses that are the reason he's hitting well. He wondered why so many people are asking him about his glasses and asked the CSN Sox correspondent about it who prompted started talking about the stats pre and post glasses. Tyler asked him to stop.Not sure what that means. Either he doesn't want to hear how utterly bad he was or just dismissing the whole thing as nonsense and most likely attributes the change in production to recent batting adjustments..

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Why not just sit back and enjoy the ride? I know I am. Who cares about what is "inevitable". It is "inevitable" that we are all going to die as well. Should we sit and obsess about that too? No way.

 

Sit back, relax, and strap it down. The Magic Glasses will be your pilot today.

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He was incredibly hot and lucky for a stretch. Then he went into a streak hardly any non pitcher has every had, now he is incredibly hot again.

 

Flowers always was really streaky. Even when he was putting up big numbers in the minors. This year, I doubt he winds up .250, but some of that could be attributed to a cold spell that really is abnormal as much as maintaining a .380 BABIP.

 

Ride out and enjoy the hot streak. A cold one is coming. They always do, but at least he has shown he does have the ability to be decent. It would be nice if he could just be more consistent.

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I just want to point out that I don't think it's coincidental that he was hot coming out of Spring Training, while he was getting regular rest, and he went into the slump when he was playing 6 out of 7 games (or something similar). We were spoiled by AJ in that he could go out there everyday and put up good numbers, but most catchers cannot. I wouldn't mind seeing Nieto playing somewhere around 3 out of 10 games just to keep Flowers fresh.

 

(I also want to point out that I don't have the actual numbers to match this, but that it merely seems to be the case)

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