Sox acquire Jeff Samardzija and Michael Ynoa

[LDF]

I wouldn't let a 2nd round draft pick deter me. I know Hahn says that but I don't agree with it. A 1st round pick would be a different story.

 

it depends on several factors for me, if that was the missing piece

and could not get the right player via FA, then yes.

[LDF]

Like I said before, the calculus for me is that the value of Tim Anderson or Marcus Semien, guys who have already made it to high levels in the minors >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the value of a 2nd round pick.

 

2nd round picks are nice, I wouldn't give them up flippantly, but a 2nd round pick who even winds up in a system's top 5 is pretty rare, let alone a 2nd round pick who makes the big leagues. The draft is that big of a gamble. We got really lucky with a guy who fell & was still singable last year, and even then he's years away from AAA.

 

i totally agree, draft picks are a huge gamble. i can see the emotional

attachment to the draft picks, b/c this system is soooo bare. the sox

need prospects.

[southsider2k5]

I agree. That move would make much more sense. If you sign Shields, the players being bandied about in Samardzjia talks could be used to acquire an impact bat and the Sox are better on both fronts.

 

Based purely on feeling, a long term deal to Shields will have a way worse pitcher at the end then Samarj.

[LDF]

Based purely on feeling, a long term deal to Shields will have a way worse pitcher at the end then Samarj.

 

ok, i said i was not going to bring this up, but i have too.

 

if the sox has to give up a group of major prospects, plus

do a contract extension, i would sign Jon Lester. another

option may be Ervin Santana. i would like to know what

his terms would be.

[Balta1701]

ok, i said i was not going to bring this up, but i have too.

 

if the sox has to give up a group of major prospects, plus

do a contract extension, i would sign Jon Lester. another

option may be Ervin Santana. i would like to know what

his terms would be.

All of them require draft pick compensation, but compared to trading Anderson for Samardszija and then signing him to a 9 figure deal, all of those seem like better options.

[Balta1701]

ok, i said i was not going to bring this up, but i have too.

 

if the sox has to give up a group of major prospects, plus

do a contract extension, i would sign Jon Lester. another

option may be Ervin Santana. i would like to know what

his terms would be.

All of them require draft pick compensation, but compared to trading Anderson for Samardszija and then signing him to a 9 figure deal, all of those seem like better options.

[LDF]

All of them require draft pick compensation, but compared to trading Anderson for Samardszija and then signing him to a 9 figure deal, all of those seem like better options.

 

i am a little confuse, isn't Lester a comp pick??

[Balta1701]

i am a little confuse, isn't Lester a comp pick??

Wait, you're right, Lester would not receive compensation, forgot about him being traded.

[Whisox05]

ok, i said i was not going to bring this up, but i have too.

 

if the sox has to give up a group of major prospects, plus

do a contract extension, i would sign Jon Lester. another

option may be Ervin Santana. i would like to know what

his terms would be.

 

Buster Olney tweeted this the other day on ervin santana. Figure santana will be Turing 32 in December.

Not surprisingly, Ervin Santana looking for as long of a deal as possible: Five years.

https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/539886337575616512

[LDF]

Wait, you're right, Lester would not receive compensation, forgot about him being traded.

 

yeah maybe the first time i am right.

 

but there are some interesting name on the waiver list. i also

like a couple of the lower end of the sp.

 

how bout Carlos Villanueva surround him with a nice team

he might surprise alot of teams.

[LDF]

Buster Olney tweeted this the other day on ervin santana. Figure santana will be Turing 32 in December.

Not surprisingly, Ervin Santana looking for as long of a deal as possible: Five years.

https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/539886337575616512

 

interesting, do you know what is salary demands???

 

also wanting and getting is two different things. btw,

he will prob get it.

[Whisox05]

Wait, you're right, Lester would not receive compensation, forgot about him being traded.

 

Because lester doesn't have a compensation pick his price will get really. I think his highest offer sofar is 6 yrs 138 million by cubs. Jon Heyman says don't be surprised if he gets up to 150 million.

[Balta1701]

Because lester doesn't have a compensation pick his price will get really. I think his highest offer sofar is 6 yrs 138 million by cubs. Jon Heyman says don't be surprised if he gets up to 150 million.

I'd prefer a deal like that with Lester to trading Anderson for Samardzija and extending him at anything close to 5/$100. The money's higher but if you're paying 9 figures to a pitcher anyway...Lester's a better pitcher and you don't have to trade away something to get him.

 

Of course, given the option I wouldn't spend 9 figures on a pitcher at all.

[Whisox05]

interesting, do you know what is salary demands???

 

also wanting and getting is two different things. btw,

he will prob get it.

 

Only thing I saw in him was possibly the years. Haven't seen much on santana sofar.

[southsider2k5]

I'd prefer a deal like that with Lester to trading Anderson for Samardzija and extending him at anything close to 5/$100. The money's higher but if you're paying 9 figures to a pitcher anyway...Lester's a better pitcher and you don't have to trade away something to get him.

 

Of course, given the option I wouldn't spend 9 figures on a pitcher at all.

 

So Tim Anderson plus the difference between Samarj and Lester is worth somewhere close to $10 million a year for the next 6 years?

[Eminor3rd]

There's a fairly strong precedent that shows that draft pick compensation affects the price of low-end free agents drastically, but doesn't affect the price of high-end free agents much at all. And it makes sense the more you think about it

[Whisox05]

I'd prefer a deal like that with Lester to trading Anderson for Samardzija and extending him at anything close to 5/$100. The money's higher but if you're paying 9 figures to a pitcher anyway...Lester's a better pitcher and you don't have to trade away something to get him.

 

Of course, given the option I wouldn't spend 9 figures on a pitcher at all.

 

Bad enough if the white sox have to compete against a better probably offer from Boston for Samardzija then it would be even worse money wise to compete against them for lester. Boston I think is going to go all out getting lester back.

[Y2Jimmy0]

We don't even know if Tim Anderson's name has come up in talks with the A's. We have no idea if the price of Samardzija is Tim Anderson. If it is, the Sox won't be getting him. It's pretty simple.

[Balta1701]

So Tim Anderson plus the difference between Samarj and Lester is worth somewhere close to $10 million a year for the next 6 years?

I'd say absolutely yes (although I'm expecting it to be closer to $5 million a year extra with an additional year or two tacked on at the end).

 

Over the last 4 years, Lester's averaged out to be a 4 WAR pitcher. Over the last 3, Samardzija has averaged out to be a 3 WAR pitcher. Lester has a better track record before that. Lester has more innings on his arm but is only 1 year older. Samardzija's best season would be Lester's 6th best season.

[LDF]

We don't even know if Tim Anderson's name has come up in talks with the A's. We have no idea if the price of Samardzija is Tim Anderson. If it is, the Sox won't be getting him. It's pretty simple.

 

i believe there were news from the sports people suggesting

it.

[Balta1701]

We don't even know if Tim Anderson's name has come up in talks with the A's. We have no idea if the price of Samardzija is Tim Anderson. If it is, the Sox won't be getting him. It's pretty simple.

There's no reason for the A's to trade Samardzija if they're not getting a high level talent back. A team in competition this year should be willing to give up a top prospect in exchange for a season of a pitcher who put up 4 WAR last year.

 

There's no reason for Beane to accept less than a high level talent. Certainly not as high as what he gave up to get Samardzija, but still a very high level guy.

 

Of course, there was no reason for him to give up Donaldson for the weak haul he got, so maybe the White Sox could get a steal here and maybe that's why they were in this conversation in the first place, but "assuming Billy Beane doesn't make another silly move" seems like a reasonable standard from my POV.

[southsider2k5]

I'd say absolutely yes (although I'm expecting it to be closer to $5 million a year extra with an additional year or two tacked on at the end).

 

Over the last 4 years, Lester's averaged out to be a 4 WAR pitcher. Over the last 3, Samardzija has averaged out to be a 3 WAR pitcher. Lester has a better track record before that. Lester has more innings on his arm but is only 1 year older. Samardzija's best season would be Lester's 6th best season.

 

I was using a basis of a 6/105 for Valpo boy and a 6/150 for Lester.

[Balta1701]

I was using a basis of a 6/105 for Valpo boy and a 6/150 for Lester.

I'd still pick Lester out of the 2 if I have to give up Anderson or Semien to get the Viking.

[Whisox05]

There's a fairly strong precedent that shows that draft pick compensation affects the price of low-end free agents drastically, but doesn't affect the price of high-end free agents much at all. And it makes sense the more you think about it

 

There isn't low end free agents getting compensation picks. It's really only the high end free agents getting compensation picks. 12 players got qualifying offers in 2014 were Max Scherzer, Victor Martinez, Russell Martin, Francisco Liriano, Hanley Ramirez, Nelson Cruz, James Shields, David Robertson, Melky Cabrera, Ervin Santana, Michael Cuddyer, and Pablo Sandoval. Those are high end free agents. Only other free agents that are higher end didn't get the qualifying offer is either traded during the season or were on options and team/player declined them.

[LDF]

There's no reason for the A's to trade Samardzija if they're not getting a high level talent back. A team in competition this year should be willing to give up a top prospect in exchange for a season of a pitcher who put up 4 WAR last year.

 

There's no reason for Beane to accept less than a high level talent. Certainly not as high as what he gave up to get Samardzija, but still a very high level guy.

 

Of course, there was no reason for him to give up Donaldson for the weak haul he got, so maybe the White Sox could get a steal here and maybe that's why they were in this conversation in the first place, but "assuming Billy Beane doesn't make another silly move" seems like a reasonable standard from my POV.

 

Beane will always try to keep a budget in line while at the same time get

assets. they traded Donalson, and they got some interesting prospect in

rtn. just maybe that was the best they could get. Beane does not like to

let cobwebs grow.

 

now on his next proposal, he want to continue to get assets. whether it is

with the sox or someone else. last yr salary was 90 mil going into the playoff,

he will try to prob address that again.