FS: Seven Spring Training Storylines

[flavum]

If Rodon has a big spring, I don't see how they don't take him north.

 

I think it would take an injury for Rodon to make the team out of spring training.

[southsider2k5]

I think it would take an injury for Rodon to make the team out of spring training.

 

If he has a big spring, he breaks the team in the pen, if there isn't a spot in the rotation that can be stolen.

[flavum]

If he has a big spring, he breaks the team in the pen, if there isn't a spot in the rotation that can be stolen.

 

I disagree, but we'll see.

 

Duke and Jennings have locked positions, and it's not likely they go with three lefties.

 

I'm thinking he'll start in the minors for at least 6 weeks, and then if there's a need somewhere, he'll be ready to come up.

[NorthSideSox72]

I think most people think the Rodon thread is most interesting, but to me, it's catcher.

 

I would love for the Sox to at least be considering the idea that two catchers could play Flowers off of the 25 man roster. None of these, obviously, are sure things, but Soto/Kottaras could be noticeably better than Flowers/anyone else if the aforementioned are actually healthy.

I personally think Kottaras is the least likely of 5 guys to be anything.

 

I also think that Nieto and Smith have the potential to be at least as good as Flowers, with ceilings that are better than Flowers. But they are both about a year away from being at that point, and neither are likely to be above average starters even if they reach their ceilings.

 

This is the position which, to me, is the biggest depth problem in the organization. You've got an MLB starter who is probably below average max, a group of Soto/Brantly/Kottaras for the backup job that aren't starting grade, a pair of prospects maybe a year out with at-best average MLB catcher ceilings (and likely not even that), and then... nothing, really. I suppose Barraza has MLB ceiling but he's never been above rookie ball. Austin looked awful behind the plate in Kanny and didn't hit much either.

 

I usually don't advocate for specific positions in the draft and I certainly think you go BPA the first few rounds, but I would really like the Sox to grab a catcher or two in relatively high rounds if at all possible in June.

 

[southsider2k5]

I disagree, but we'll see.

 

Duke and Jennings have locked positions, and it's not likely they go with three lefties.

 

I'm thinking he'll start in the minors for at least 6 weeks, and then if there's a need somewhere, he'll be ready to come up.

 

The Sox are back in win now mode. If Rodon pitches like he can, they will make a space for him, somewhere.

[witesoxfan]

The Sox are back in win now mode. If Rodon pitches like he can, they will make a space for him, somewhere.

 

I think this is still a team looking big picture though. I would be beyond surprised if Rodon breaks camp with the Sox in any fashion unless he is absolutely flawless.

[chitownsportsfan]

The irrational exuberance on Micah Johnson is one of the most inexplicable things I've seen. He can't field 2B. Until he does, he's a 25th man, at best. If he gets 400 PA in Charlotte and goes 300/340/440 with 30 out of 40 SB and the reports on his defense are better -- than fine, pencil him in for 2016.

 

Until then he's just a middling prospect IMO. He's not 22, he's 24, that's a major blow. He's older than Sanchez FFS.

[flavum]

The irrational exuberance on Micah Johnson is one of the most inexplicable things I've seen. He can't field 2B. Until he does, he's a 25th man, at best. If he gets 400 PA in Charlotte and goes 300/340/440 with 30 out of 40 SB and the reports on his defense are better -- than fine, pencil him in for 2016.

 

Until then he's just a middling prospect IMO. He's not 22, he's 24, that's a major blow. He's older than Sanchez FFS.

 

It seems like they want Johnson to win that job. I'm glad they have a Plan, B, C, and D this year, but I'm expecting Johnson to be batting 9th on opening day.

[shysocks]

It seems like they want Johnson to win that job. I'm glad they have a Plan, B, C, and D this year, but I'm expecting Johnson to be batting 9th on opening day.

That would surprise me. Anybody but Sanchez on opening day would surprise me.

[NorthSideSox72]

The irrational exuberance on Micah Johnson is one of the most inexplicable things I've seen. He can't field 2B. Until he does, he's a 25th man, at best. If he gets 400 PA in Charlotte and goes 300/340/440 with 30 out of 40 SB and the reports on his defense are better -- than fine, pencil him in for 2016.

 

Until then he's just a middling prospect IMO. He's not 22, he's 24, that's a major blow. He's older than Sanchez FFS.

Well first of all, he's not a "middling prospect" by single-org standards. He's probably in the 150-220 range across MLB, and 6th or so on the Sox.

 

Second, Sanchez is very young to be at his level right now. When he started Charlotte in 2013 he was the youngest player in all of AAA baseball, and was still among the youngest on return in 2014. Your standards on age are a little odd to me.

 

Third, at 24 knocking on the door of the majors, Johnson is right around where many key prospects are age-wise, even on the young side for a college guy.

 

I do agree with you on the reservations about his defense - that is something people seem to be forgetting and shouldn't. That's a major issue.

 

How many bases he steals in AAA is almost irrelevant. Minor league SB numbers are not quite useless, but their value is very small, as players are on all sorts of different orders for doing different things (and not doing other things). He's already shown he can steal a lot and do it at a high rate when he's given a permanent green light, and he's got 70 grade speed or better. If he's healthy, all that is left on that topic is technique, which he'll be learning.

 

Finally, Johnson isn't a 25th man because he isn't a bench player. He isn't a bench player for the very reason you noted earlier - his defense. He has trouble at 2B as it is, and doesn't have the arm to play elsewhere probably, so he's a one position guy. Either he's a starting (or at least heavyweight platoon) 2B, or he's not in the majors, at least right now.

[flavum]

That would surprise me. Anybody but Sanchez on opening day would surprise me.

 

If Johnson plays bad in spring training, he'll go down to Charlotte. But I think he would have to be less than adequate not to be the starting 2b--and I'm just basing this on how the team talks about him.

[southsider2k5]

I think this is still a team looking big picture though. I would be beyond surprised if Rodon breaks camp with the Sox in any fashion unless he is absolutely flawless.

 

I'm not saying it is an automatic thing. I am saying if he pitches well enough, especially if others don't, he will get a job.

[chitownsportsfan]

Thing is tho NorthSide he isn't "knocking on the door of the majors" with his play in the minors. He's only there by default as the Sox don't have anyone obviously better than him either in MLB or MilB. It's faint praise IMO.

 

I'm not high on guys that can't translate their speed defensively. Speed needs to play not just on the bases but defensively and in getting on base (Eaton is a master of the slap hustle single). Maybe Micah puts it all together this year in AAA and forces his way onto the big club. I just don't expect it.

 

"Middling prospect" was too harsh but I personally have him ranked outside the top 10 in the ORG.

 

As for Rodon, I fully expect him to throw 50-120 innings in the bigs this year, but not more than that. He needs at least 5-10 starts in Charlotte to continue to work on his command and control and pitch sequencing. That means like a late June callup and I expect him to replace whoever is the least effective starter to that point. My money is on Danks. Danks will either be DFA or traded for a bucket of balls before the deadline imo. I don't see much from any of his peripherals or PitchFX data from the last two years that leads to optimism.

Edited February 19, 2015 by chitownsportsfan

[NorthSideSox72]

Thing is tho NorthSide he isn't "knocking on the door of the majors" with his play in the minors. He's only there by default as the Sox don't have anyone obviously better than him either in MLB or MilB. It's faint praise IMO.

 

I'm not high on guys that can't translate their speed defensively. Speed needs to play not just on the bases but defensively and in getting on base (Eaton is a master of the slap hustle single). Maybe Micah puts it all together this year in AAA and forces his way onto the big club. I just don't expect it.

 

"Middling prospect" was too harsh but I personally have him ranked outside the top 10 in the ORG.

His speed is not an issue defensively - it does translate that way. I've watched him play in person and the range is very good, saw him make some plays in short right that were tough for most people. And me makes the occasional spectacular play too. His arm is fine for 2B, but isn't strong enough for an outfielder from what I've seen and read.

 

The problem is the glove work, which is very inconsistent. Part of that seems to be mental - a lack of focus on routine plays, and a tendency to try to do too much and force a play. Those are things that can be learned, which is cause for optimism. Doesn't means he WILL fix them, but it means he can, and he's a sharp guy.

 

[Rowand44]

Thing is tho NorthSide he isn't "knocking on the door of the majors" with his play in the minors. He's only there by default as the Sox don't have anyone obviously better than him either in MLB or MilB. It's faint praise IMO.

It's actually because the organization clearly loves the guy. I'm not saying they're right as I'm not Micah's biggest fan either BUT all this praise he's getting is because the Sox absolutely love the guy.

[chitownsportsfan]

His speed is not an issue defensively - it does translate that way. I've watched him play in person and the range is very good, saw him make some plays in short right that were tough for most people. And me makes the occasional spectacular play too. His arm is fine for 2B, but isn't strong enough for an outfielder from what I've seen and read.

 

The problem is the glove work, which is very inconsistent. Part of that seems to be mental - a lack of focus on routine plays, and a tendency to try to do too much and force a play. Those are things that can be learned, which is cause for optimism. Doesn't means he WILL fix them, but it means he can, and he's a sharp guy.

 

Thanks for the report I'll readily admit I don't watch these guys film, don't go to the games, I rely on the reports from scouts.

 

It's interesting to me that the problem is with his glove work because usually what you see is that slower guys rush the throws, rush the transfers, rush everything because they don't trust their own ability to get to the ball quickly. Usually guys that are fast in the infield are also slick with the glove just because they have so much time to get a good grip on the ball, a smooth transfer, whatever.

 

Hopefully he just needs more confidence and seasoning. Keeping his legs healthy, much like Eaton, will be key. I have a feeling Micah is another "sports car" type like Eaton, if he isn't fully tuned, he isn't going to be very effective.

[caulfield12]

Micah doesn't have the upside of a Ray Durham (overall), but look no further for a player with all the physical tools who had his fair share of defensive struggles. There's the mental side of things to always take into consideration at that level...he was probably Top 5 in the history of the game at 2B in being able to chase down balls in the outfield and down the foul line, but the routine play, that was challenging for him and he'd lose focus, just like Alexei drifts sometimes.

 

With Sanchez, you just have the feeling that, while he won't kill you on a really good offensive team, he's going to start to weigh down the bottom of the line-up and he just doesn't have anything about his game that really stands out. If the Sox still had Eduardo Escobar on their roster, I think they would start him at 2B over Sanchez. Faint praise, indeed...and, with all that said, they seem to be weighing the ability to manufacture runs and wreck havoc on the basepaths more than defense at this point.

 

Of course, it also wouldn't be shocking if somehow Beckham ended up starting again...sigh.

Edited February 20, 2015 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

Micah doesn't have the upside of a Ray Durham (overall), but look no further for a player with all the physical tools who had his fair share of defensive struggles. There's the mental side of things to always take into consideration at that level...he was probably Top 5 in the history of the game at 2B in being able to chase down balls in the outfield and down the foul line, but the routine play, that was challenging for him and he'd lose focus, just like Alexei drifts sometimes.

 

With Sanchez, you just have the feeling that, while he won't kill you on a really good offensive team, he's going to start to weigh down the bottom of the line-up and he just doesn't have anything about his game that really stands out. If the Sox still had Eduardo Escobar on their roster, I think they would start him at 2B over Sanchez. Faint praise, indeed...and, with all that said, they seem to be weighing the ability to manufacture runs and wreck havoc on the basepaths more than defense at this point.

 

Of course, it also wouldn't be shocking if somehow Beckham ended up starting again...sigh.

Eduardo Escobar put up 2.3 fWAR last year at SS. That's actually a pretty solid season at SS. Little bit worse on the bWAR number but he's carried by being a positive on both offense and defense. He also outhit Beckham last year, despite playing in the caverns of Minnesota. He put up a similar fWAR to Andrelton Simmons. That's more than faint praise.

[Y2Jimmy0]

The Sox are back in win now mode. If Rodon pitches like he can, they will make a space for him, somewhere.

 

 

I just don't think this is true or smart. I don't want to sacrifice 1 entire year of control of a stud Boras client that will be in his prime for an extra month and a half in the big leagues. Rodon is ticketed for Charlotte and it's the right call regardless of what the White Sox say.

[Balta1701]

I just don't think this is true or smart. I don't want to sacrifice 1 entire year of control of a stud Boras client that will be in his prime for an extra month and a half in the big leagues. Rodon is ticketed for Charlotte and it's the right call regardless of what the White Sox say.

With Rodon having never pitched more than 130 innings in a season, and in college only, I really don't think anything that brings him up early in the year is a good move, I don't care how well he's pitching.

 

If they bring him up, then by the middle/latter part of the year they're going to have to skip him once every couple weeks, or even once a month starting early in the year to keep his innings down.

 

The end result of that is that the other pitchers in the rotation and the pen are going to be absorbing more innings.

 

Simple question...are you confident that Chris Sale can absorb more innings? That Chris Sale will have no injury problems? Because that's the downside risk. Yeah we get more out of Rodon, but an injury to Sale and I don't care who else we have in the rotation, we're 5 games or more behind the Tigers.

 

I have no problem with a midseason callup for Rodon, but if we're planning on this team being competitive, he should stay in Charlotte at least for a month or two, preferably more if the back 2 people in the rotation aren't awful. Priority #1 in this rotation by far is keeping Chris Sale healthy, and that means at least going a little easy on his arm and giving him extra rest, not using Mr. Offday as the 5th starter once every 4 weeks.

[RockRaines]

Really nice piece dude. Gonna be a fun spring. Anyone going down there?

[chitownsportsfan]

Nate Jones is still recovering from his issues and isn't likely back until June, but you may see him around camp working out.

 

Edited February 20, 2015 by chitownsportsfan

[GreenSox]

The Sox are back in win now mode. If Rodon pitches like he can, they will make a space for him, somewhere.

They are in win now, without hurting the future.

You lose, what, 20% of his service time with an early callup.

He needs to be ace quality to be up before June. And certainly not as a bullpen pitcher - ever.

[NorthSideSox72]

Thanks for the report I'll readily admit I don't watch these guys film, don't go to the games, I rely on the reports from scouts.

 

It's interesting to me that the problem is with his glove work because usually what you see is that slower guys rush the throws, rush the transfers, rush everything because they don't trust their own ability to get to the ball quickly. Usually guys that are fast in the infield are also slick with the glove just because they have so much time to get a good grip on the ball, a smooth transfer, whatever.

 

Hopefully he just needs more confidence and seasoning. Keeping his legs healthy, much like Eaton, will be key. I have a feeling Micah is another "sports car" type like Eaton, if he isn't fully tuned, he isn't going to be very effective.

 

I like the sports car analogy, it's spot-on. He will be high maintenance.

 

Really nice piece dude. Gonna be a fun spring. Anyone going down there?

 

Looks like we have a thread for that!

 

Perhaps awkwardly worded. Was saying Jones won't be pitching until May or June, but he'll be in camp getting in his workouts.

 

[southsider2k5]

 

Just because the arm isn't ready, doesn't mean the rest of his doesn't need its work.