In-season managerial changes a risk, BUT

[LDF]

And yet everyone still gives Hawk the GM hell for firing Tony LaRussa even though after 83 the 84 team sucked, the 85 team was decent and they were playing horribly in 1986 when he was fired. Fregosi had a 40 point higher winning percentage as the White Sox manager that year. Yeah, firing the manager makes many fans happy, but it doesn't fix things. Robin is fine. If your closer is going to get rocked, and it happens from time to time with every one of them, you are probably going to lose.

 

this is a philosophy that goes back a long way. this cliche of a manager will find ways to motivates his team, i don't see that in him. but then again i don't live in chicago.

 

 

[harkness99]

I don't blame Ventura for very game... but.

 

1. Some of you are forgetting that Ventura didn't WANT to be a manager - they had to talk him into it.

 

2. The team (especially in the past two years) just makes a bunch of sloppy non major league level mental errors... at this level where everyone a professional

this really looks like coaching - I don't know why Ventura doesn't work but he doesn't. He just doesn't get through to these guys. Its glaringly obvious.

[LDF]

I don't blame Ventura for very game... but.

 

1. Some of you are forgetting that Ventura didn't WANT to be a manager - they had to talk him into it.

 

2. The team (especially in the past two years) just makes a bunch of sloppy non major league level mental errors... at this level where everyone a professional

this really looks like coaching - I don't know why Ventura doesn't work but he doesn't. He just doesn't get through to these guys. Its glaringly obvious.

 

nice....

 

1. hawks team, Savy is coach, was he good, will he become better, he was a chi org guy. Q became avail and the org made a daring move, fired Savy and hired Q.

 

the sox need to be this daring, they already screwed up in the offseason on 2 coaching fronts.

 

2. this team has an expiration date.... this team can not waste another yr seeing if RV could become the manager that the FO hoped.

[caulfield12]

Torre, Cox, LaRussa, Ventura

 

Somehow, one of them doesn't quite belong in the same conversation.

 

If Ventura goes on to a 30+ year managerial career and enters the Hall of Fame, I'll eat my hat.

Edited May 27, 2015 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

Torre, Cox, LaRussa, Ventura

 

Somehow, one of them doesn't quite belong in the same conversation.

 

If Ventura goes on to a 30+ year managerial career and enters the Hall of Fame, I'll eat my hat.

Why don't you look at how those guys started out.

[southsider2k5]

It's not really a risk when your manager has already been proven himself to be awful.

 

I remember the same things being said about Ozzie.

[LDF]

Why don't you look at how those guys started out.

 

they all had some king of coaching job before the managers job.

 

how much did RV had in coaching??

[LDF]

I remember the same things being said about Ozzie.

 

he was also a coach...

[Dick Allen]

they all had some king of coaching job before the managers job.

 

how much did RV had in coaching??

How much does anyone here have, but they all claim to know everything Robin supposedly does incorrectly. It's not rocket science, and he played the game and was a leader for a long time.

[Dick Allen]

Bobby Cox 1st 5 seasons:

69-93

66-94

81-80

50-56

78-84

 

Joe Torre 1st 5 seasons:

49-68

66-96

63-99

67-95

41-62

 

What a couple of idiots.

 

And Hawk, what a fool for firing Tony LaRussa, yet LaRussa had a worse winning pct. as the White Sox manager than Jerry Manuel and the same amount of postseason appearances.

Edited May 27, 2015 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/5791926/

 

in the 2000's, they worked out 9 of 34 times (and two of them were by the Rockies/O'Dowd, who curiously speaks out against them in the article) in terms of the new manager leading the team to the playoffs

 

2010 7 changes (Baltimore twice), KC, Orioles, DBacks, Mariners all finish last, Cubs 5th, Marlins 3rd (0/7)

2011 4 changes....Ozzie for Cooper at end of season (3rd place), A's and Nats 3rd, Marlins 5th (0/4)

2012 2 changes......Astros last, Indians next to last (Alomar, Jr., at very end of the season) (0/2)

2013 1 change.....Sandberg for Manuel, 4th place (0/1)

2014 3 changes....Astros/Rangers 4th, DBacks last (0/3)

2015 2 changes....Counsell for Roenicke, Dan Jennings for Mike Redmond

 

2010-2015 (0/17 in terms of a managerial change leading to the playoffs, although it should be noted Kirk Gibson came in at the end of 2010 and quickly led Arizona to the playoffs the following season)

 

Basically, the odds are 20% (in terms of a change leading to the playoffs) in the last 15 years. Do the White Sox under Ventura have the same odds if he continues as manager?

 

 

 

 

Dodgers outfielder Juan Pierre, a part of the Marlins' turnaround in 2003, said it's not always true that players on underachieving teams want the manager pushed out the door. "But maybe it's a different personality or a different voice," Pierre said. "I'm not a parent, but I know some parents can tell their child to do something over and over again. Then maybe they have an aunt or an uncle or a neighbor tell the child the same thing, and the child listens. "It applies to kids, and sometimes it applies to professional athletes."

 

In Houston in '04, the situation called for urgency. "Garner came in with the attitude, 'I've only got three months. I don't care if I hurt feelings, you'll do it my way,'" Ausmus said.

 

.....

 

In 2009, O'Dowd said he made the move because he felt Tracy could quickly implement his priorities (despite Hurdle's leading the team to the 2007 World Series, just two years prior).

What makes such a move work? New strategies? A different voice? Shock value? All of the aforementioned changes figured in those successful changes. With the Rockies, all have applied to the turnaround.

 

"I can't speak for any other sport, but in the history of the game it doesn't work," O'Dowd said. "A lot of times when you make a change, you've got deep-seeded (seated) problems that don't go away overnight. And usually your personnel is not very good either. History shows making a change is not an elixir."

 

"They only work when you have a specific plan in mind of why you're making the change," O'Dowd said. "If you make a change for change sake, you have absolutely no chance for it working."

 

 

 

Top 10 midseason improvements since 1900 after a managerial change (not including changes in the first or last 20 games of the season):

 

#1: 1989 Blue Jays

12-24 (.333) under Jimy Williams

77-49 (.626) under Cito Gaston

Midseason improvement: +.293

#2: 1940 Cardinals

15-29 (.341) under Ray Blades and Mike Gonzalez

69-40 (.633) under Billy Southworth

Midseason improvement: +.292

#3: 1912 Indians

54-71 (.470) under Harry Davis

21-7 (.750) under Joe Birmingham

Midseason improvement: +.280

#4: 1999 Angels

51-82 (.383) under Terry Collins

19-10 (.655) under Joe Maddon

Midseason improvement: +.272

#5: 2009 Rockies

18-28 (.391) under Clint Hurdle

74-42 (.638) under Jim Tracy

Midseason improvement: +.247

#6: 1988 Padres

16-30 (.348) under Larry Bowa

67-48 (.583) under Jack McKeon

Midseason improvement: +.235

#7: 1925 Cardinals

13-25 (.342) under Branch Rickey

64-51 (.556) under Rogers Hornsby

Midseason improvement: +.214

#8: 1980 Twins

54-71 (.432) under Gene Mauch

23-13 (.639) under Johnny Goryl

Midseason improvement: +.207

#9: 2002 Rockies

6-16 (.2727) under Buddy Bell

67-73 (.4786) under Clint Hurdle

Midseason improvement: +.2059

#10: 1969 Angels

11-28 (.2821) under Bill Rigney

60-63 (.4878) under Lefty Phillips

Midseason improvement: +.2057

 

source, baseball-reference.com

 

How can you not see the selection bias issue with this? Let me ask you this: how many teams have ever fired their manager while the team was playing well?

 

Managers are only ever fired when the team is underperforming, therefore natural regression to the mean will see the team improve regardless. There was a Freakonomics study about this years ago showing no difference between the ROS performance of bad teams that fired their managers versus bad teams that kept their managers.

 

[caulfield12]

How can you not see the selection bias issue with this? Let me ask you this: how many teams have ever fired their manager while the team was playing well?

 

Managers are only ever fired when the team is underperforming, therefore natural regression to the mean will see the team improve regardless. There was a Freakonomics study about this years ago showing no difference between the ROS performance of bad teams that fired their managers versus bad teams that kept their managers.

 

 

By that argument, no CEO or manager or coach should ever be fired, except for gross negligence.

 

Unless you accept the fact that the White Sox actual or real "mean" is 0-5 games under .500 (and last place in the division) and are contented with that level of performance....then we'll be stuck in that same pattern of continual and consistent mediocrity for another 20-30 years.

Edited May 27, 2015 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

How can you not see the selection bias issue with this? Let me ask you this: how many teams have ever fired their manager while the team was playing well?

 

Managers are only ever fired when the team is underperforming, therefore natural regression to the mean will see the team improve regardless. There was a Freakonomics study about this years ago showing no difference between the ROS performance of bad teams that fired their managers versus bad teams that kept their managers.

One big turnaround was when the Marlins fired Torborg and hired McKeon. Of course they also called up Miggy and Dontrell Willis.

[LDF]

How much does anyone here have, but they all claim to know everything Robin supposedly does incorrectly. It's not rocket science, and he played the game and was a leader for a long time.

 

true, but not all players can coach or coach well enuf.

 

but you can not denied they had experience in coaching.

[Dick Allen]

true, but not all players can coach or coach well enuf.

 

but you can not denied they had experience in coaching.

This is his 4th season as a manager. The lack of experience complaint window has long passed.

[LDF]

By that argument, no CEO or manager or coach should ever be fired, except for gross negligence.

 

Unless you accept the fact that the White Sox actual or real "mean" is 0-5 games under .500 (and last place in the division) and are contented with that level of performance....then we'll be stuck in that same pattern of continual and consistent mediocrity for another 20-30 years.

 

you made in interesting point here. the org appears to be contented, it is the fans that are not.

[LDF]

This is his 4th season as a manager. The lack of experience complaint window has long passed.

 

and as a default, when does one end the experiment??

[Dick Allen]

and as a default, when does one end the experiment??

So you really think the manager is why this team isn't in first place? If you think that, maybe you should lay off ownership as apparently they have put together a baseball team you think should win a lot of games.

[LDF]

So you really think the manager is why this team isn't in first place? If you think that, maybe you should lay off ownership as apparently they have put together a baseball team you think should win a lot of games.

 

the buck stops with the ownership. they are the ones that dictates policy.

 

~~~ edit, don't get me wrong, i really do hope i am wrong, i wish someone could show me that i am full of crap, but this is how i see it,.

Edited May 27, 2015 by LDF

[caulfield12]

What is the White Sox "brand" right now?

 

What does being a White Sox player represent...to the players, and to the fans?

 

What are they trained in from the very beginning, the first day they sign and go to rookie ball?

 

Most other organizations now have their own version/s of "Cardinals' Way"...but we've never developed a book/system, and it's 1) because not enough of our minor leaguers make an impact on the major league results, or 2) we've never taken the time to map out a strategy of instruction from Point A to Point B with all the scouts as well as major/minor league coaches working in collaboration.

 

 

If everyone's not inculcating the Steverson system...or whatever Thome's doing, how can we expect them to just magically adapt at the major league level when a number of bad habits have already developed, to the point where it's too late to fix them in-season or the swings need to be completely overhauled from a mechanical standpoint (see Beckham, Borchard, Viciedo, Brian Anderson, Josh Fields, etc.)

Edited May 27, 2015 by caulfield12

[LDF]

What is the White Sox "brand" right now?

 

What does being a White Sox player represent...to the players, and to the fans?

 

What are they trained in from the very beginning, the first day they sign and go to rookie ball?

 

Most other organizations now have their own version/s of "Cardinals' Way"...but we've never developed a book/system, and it's 1) because not enough of our minor leaguers make an impact on the major league results, or 2) we've never taken the time to map out a strategy of instruction from Point A to Point B with all the scouts as well as major/minor league coaches working in collaboration.

 

or c) we the fans are not privy to that info.

 

damn i hate being so negative today. sorry.

 

[SCCWS]

At this point, there's almost nothing to lose.

 

We're trailing every single team in the AL, other than the A's.

 

If it doesn't work, we have the luxury of finding another manager in the off-season and "rebooting" again.

 

Surely, Hahn has a "big board" of potential managers in mind as well.

Who are you going to replace him with??? No one is coming in from outside the organization without a multi year contract. So in your rational, you hire another manager for will say 3 years and he doesn't work out so in the off-season you hire another one and have 3 on the payroll for next year. That ain't happening.

So you have to hire within the organization. Harold Baines?? Buddy Bell?? Herm Schneider?? Kenny Williams??? How about Coop as interim manager for rest of year. Replace him with Nieves who is being paid by Boston anyway.

 

OR you stcik w Robin, get a better draft pick and replace him in offseason when the number of candidates are much greater

[caulfield12]

Who are you going to replace him with??? No one is coming in from outside the organization without a multi year contract. So in your rational, you hire another manager for will say 3 years and he doesn't work out so in the off-season you hire another one and have 3 on the payroll for next year. That ain't happening.

So you have to hire within the organization. Harold Baines?? Buddy Bell?? Herm Schneider?? Kenny Williams??? How about Coop as interim manager for rest of year. Replace him with Nieves who is being paid by Boston anyway.

 

OR you stcik w Robin, get a better draft pick and replace him in offseason when the number of candidates are much greater

 

 

Cooper is the main one whose loyalty to the organization trumps his loyalty to Ventura (like Cora with Guillen).

 

Buddy Bell would be another choice, or Nick Capra.

 

Finally, McEwing or Mark Parent (I wrote Mark Salas for some reason, haha) if Ventura recommended they stay on in his place. (And I'm sure he wouldn't, not his style to be petty or vengeful).

 

 

That's four. Personally, I would be happy with Cooper or McEwing (because he's a big LaRussa disciple, the equivalent of Martinez with Maddon almost).

 

 

But no 2-3 year contracts for the interim manager. He's got to earn it. Otherwise, you wait until the offseason and do a full managerial search with due diligence and a full field of candidates, which hasn't happened since 2003-2004 with this organization.

Edited May 27, 2015 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

If Ventura is fired, I would imagine the leading candidate for the rest of this season would be Joe McEwing. Mark Parent came from the outside with Ventura, so I would guess he would be out as well. Guys like Buddy Bell would causing a big disruption throughout the entire organization, which I don't see being the Sox MO.

[southsider2k5]

If Ventura is fired, I would imagine the leading candidate for the rest of this season would be Joe McEwing. Mark Parent came from the outside with Ventura, so I would guess he would be out as well. Guys like Buddy Bell would causing a big disruption throughout the entire organization, which I don't see being the Sox MO.

 

That being said, the only way Ventura leaves Chicago is if he quits.