flavum Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 07:55 AM) He's not getting the award. It's about him being top 3. If anyone votes for him 3rd, I'd be very surprised. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 QUOTE (flavum @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 08:01 AM) If anyone votes for him 3rd, I'd be very surprised. Well one of the 3 best pitchers in the AL wouldn't finish in the top 3 in voting then. Which would be dumb. Not that it really matters anyway though. The only knock Sale really has against him is the fewer innings this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 08:11 AM) Well one of the 3 best pitchers in the AL wouldn't finish in the top 3 in voting then. Which would be dumb. Not that it really matters anyway though. The only knock Sale really has against him is the fewer innings this year. I won't be changing your mind, but there are a bunch of starting pitchers having better years than Sale. He's not even close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 08:11 AM) Well one of the 3 best pitchers in the AL wouldn't finish in the top 3 in voting then. Which would be dumb. Not that it really matters anyway though. The only knock Sale really has against him is the fewer innings this year. The award isn't for the 3 best pitchers in the AL though. It's for the 3 pitchers who had the best seasons in 2015. Those are two different arguments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 08:36 AM) The award isn't for the 3 best pitchers in the AL though. It's for the 3 pitchers who had the best seasons in 2015. Those are two different arguments. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0 I know that we watched him all year and he had some bad starts. Fangraphs still has him as the 4th best pitcher in all of baseball too though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 08:42 AM) http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0 I know that we watched him all year and he had some bad starts. Fangraphs still has him as the 4th best pitcher in all of baseball too though. Wouldn't FanGraphs' numbers compensate for the lack of defense behind him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 09:45 AM) Wouldn't FanGraphs' numbers compensate for the lack of defense behind him? Yes. In fairness to you, that's why I used fan graphs. Baseball Reference would probably be different because they use what actually happened as opposed to what "should have" happened in theory. I think fan graphs is a more accurate representation for pitchers though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 10:45 AM) Wouldn't FanGraphs' numbers compensate for the lack of defense behind him? I've been pondering this for a while because there's something really odd about the White Sox fangraphs/BR WAR numbers. When I looked a few weeks ago the Sox had by far the biggest split between their fangraphs WAR and their B-R WAR numbers - fangraphs gave the pitchers much more credit while B-R was giving more to the lineup. There were other teams like this, but there wasn't an obvious pattern to it. If you looked at the teams that were terrible on defense, only the White Sox stood out with that same pattern, and the teams that were good on defense other than the Cardinals didn't obviously stand out the other way, so it's not just "Something that normally happens to teams with bad defense". I'm still trying to figure out what exactly that means. Some hypotheses I have include "The White Sox pitchers are unusually bad at giving up hard-hit contact" so that fangraphs is penalizing the defenders more than it needs to and rewarding the pitchers more than it needs to or "the White Sox are unusually bad at defensive positioning" so that balls are falling way more than they should even taking into account our defenders being really bad. I haven't yet figured this out, but it's an interesting subthread to this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted September 24, 2015 Author Share Posted September 24, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 11:31 AM) I've been pondering this for a while because there's something really odd about the White Sox fangraphs/BR WAR numbers. When I looked a few weeks ago the Sox had by far the biggest split between their fangraphs WAR and their B-R WAR numbers - fangraphs gave the pitchers much more credit while B-R was giving more to the lineup. There were other teams like this, but there wasn't an obvious pattern to it. If you looked at the teams that were terrible on defense, only the White Sox stood out with that same pattern, and the teams that were good on defense other than the Cardinals didn't obviously stand out the other way, so it's not just "Something that normally happens to teams with bad defense". I'm still trying to figure out what exactly that means. Some hypotheses I have include "The White Sox pitchers are unusually bad at giving up hard-hit contact" so that fangraphs is penalizing the defenders more than it needs to and rewarding the pitchers more than it needs to or "the White Sox are unusually bad at defensive positioning" so that balls are falling way more than they should even taking into account our defenders being really bad. I haven't yet figured this out, but it's an interesting subthread to this season. Regarding this, our pitchers actually have the 2nd lowest hard-hit% of all teams in the MLB behind only the Astros. We're also 3rd in soft-hit% behind the Pirates and Astros. The Astros are the only team ahead of us in both, so in terms of quality of contact given up, our pitching staff is 2nd-best in the MLB this year (unless the hard-hit contact our pitchers give up is several degrees worse than the hard-hit contact other teams give up). Hard-hit% rankings: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=19,a Soft-hit% rankings: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=17,d Edited September 24, 2015 by OmarComing25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 I personally think Sale should finish #2 at the worst in the voting. Sadly, ERA is weighted too high by the voters for that to happen. The advanced stats are all in his favor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted September 24, 2015 Author Share Posted September 24, 2015 QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 11:55 AM) I personally think Sale should finish #2 at the worst in the voting. Sadly, ERA is weighted too high by the voters for that to happen. The advanced stats are all in his favor. Would have agreed with you a month ago, but Sale's crappy September has changed my mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 12:53 PM) Regarding this, our pitchers are actually have the 2nd lowest hard-hit% of all teams in the MLB behind only the Astros. We're also 3rd in soft-hit% behind the Pirates and Astros. The Astros are the only team ahead of us in both, so in terms of quality of contact given up, our pitching staff is 2nd-best in the MLB this year (unless the hard-hit contact our pitchers give up is several degrees worse than the hard-hit contact other teams give up). Hard-hit% rankings: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=19,a Soft-hit% rankings: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=17,d Thanks. Let's rephrase that then to "The White Sox are unusually bad at giving up poorly positioned or poorly timed hits". Because somehow, we're giving up way more hits and runs than we should even factoring in that our defense isn't good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 QUOTE (flavum @ Sep 23, 2015 -> 11:58 AM) AL: 1. Price 2. Keuchel 3. Gray NL: 1. Greinke 2. Arrieta 3. Kershaw With the right to change my picks. Greinke starts tonight. Yep. I would change to Arrieta. I actually think he's going to run away with it, and it has nothing to do with Greinke and Kershaw splitting votes, which never made sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Sale is in 4th for the AL in my opinion, behind Price, Keuchel, and Gray. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 (edited) He probably won't get it. But he's the MVP, imo. Take him away from the Cubs and they're (gross) the White Sox. Edited October 3, 2015 by Jordan4life Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Oct 3, 2015 -> 08:26 PM) He probably won't get it. But he's the MVP, imo. Take him away from the Cubs and they're (gross) the White Sox. according to fangraphs, if you take Arrieta off the Cubs, their pitching would be 11th in all of baseball in terms of fWAR. With him, they're #1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted October 3, 2015 Author Share Posted October 3, 2015 I'll honestly be shocked if Arrieta doesn't win it at this point. Lowest 2nd half ERA in history, the ERA difference between him and Greinke is pretty small now, and he has the no-hitter. He also has a much better FIP and SIERA. We all know wins suck as a stat but he also has that working for him as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted October 3, 2015 Author Share Posted October 3, 2015 QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Oct 3, 2015 -> 02:26 PM) He probably won't get it. But he's the MVP, imo. Take him away from the Cubs and they're (gross) the White Sox. Arrieta was not worth 20+ wins by himself, that's absurd. If Harper doesn't win the MVP then the award is a joke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Oct 3, 2015 -> 03:19 PM) Arrieta was not worth 20+ wins by himself, that's absurd. If Harper doesn't win the MVP then the award is a joke. Who were the runner-ups when Verlander/Kershaw won? I'm too high to look for myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted October 3, 2015 Author Share Posted October 3, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Oct 3, 2015 -> 03:25 PM) Who were the runner-ups when Verlander/Kershaw won? I'm too high to look for myself. Stanton finished 2nd last year, and Ellsbury finished 2nd in 2011. Neither were anywhere close to Harper this year. He's having a very, very special year. The Nationals have actually scored more runs than last year and that's with everyone in their lineup except Harper regressing pretty bad from last season. Edited October 3, 2015 by OmarComing25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panerista Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Oct 3, 2015 -> 02:26 PM) He probably won't get it. But he's the MVP, imo. Take him away from the Cubs and they're (gross) the White Sox. Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo would disagree. We have Abreu, who is a little better than either, but we don't have two players that equal the two of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Jeff Sullivan @based_ball 4m4 minutes ago Clayton Kershaw, OPS allowed, final 2013: .521 2014: .521 2015: .521 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 If I had a vote: AL: Keuchel, Price, Sale NL: Kershaw, Arrieta, Grienke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 (edited) Which pitcher should win the NL Cy Young? Pitcher A: 5.9 fWAR, 2.76 FIP, 1.66 ERA, GB% 48%, 0.57 HR/9, 1.62 BB/9, 8.08 K/9, 222 IP, 32 starts, 200 strikeouts Pitcher B: 8.6 fWAR, 1.99 FIP, 2.13 ERA, GB% 50%, 0.58 HR/9, 1.62 BB/9, 11.64 K/9, 232 IP, 33 starts, 301 strikeouts Pitcher C: 7.3 fWAR, 2.35 FIP, 1.77 ERA, GB% 56.2%, 0.39 HR/9, 1.89 BB/9, 9.29 K/9, 229 IP, 33 starts, 236 strikeouts Edited November 18, 2015 by Y2JImmy0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 ERA for player A is wrong I believe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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