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Melky - What Did You Expect?

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I've read a lot of posts on here during the offseason speak about Melky Cabrera like he had an awful year and they expect a big rebound in '16. Or that we should find a way to get rid of him in the same sense we need to get rid of Laroche. I've kind of been wondering why so many people think his 2015 was so bad, and I'm curious what they expected.

 

Perhaps that line of thought is fueled by the dichotomy of his 1st and 2nd half last year, but I don't think he finished much differently than I expected when we signed him. Perhaps a little worse, but nothing too significant.

 

 

Stat: 2015/Career Average

 

AVE: .273/.285

OBP: .314/.336

OPS: .709/.748

HR: 12/12 (Rate based career AB/HR with 629 ABs)

RBIs: 77/75 (Rate based career AB/RBI with 629 ABs)

 

Obviously this isn't close to his monster, yet suspension shortened 2012 numbers, but we clearly didn't expect to see those 2012 numbers. Are people expecting him to be something more than a 15 HR .280 hitter from a 1 time all star??

QUOTE (Markbilliards @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 04:22 PM)
I've read a lot of posts on here during the offseason speak about Melky Cabrera like he had an awful year and they expect a big rebound in '16. Or that we should find a way to get rid of him in the same sense we need to get rid of Laroche. I've kind of been wondering why so many people think his 2015 was so bad, and I'm curious what they expected.

 

Perhaps that line of thought is fueled by the dichotomy of his 1st and 2nd half last year, but I don't think he finished much differently than I expected when we signed him. Perhaps a little worse, but nothing too significant.

 

 

Stat: 2015/Career Average

 

AVE: .273/.285

OBP: .314/.336

OPS: .709/.748

HR: 12/12 (Rate based career AB/HR with 629 ABs)

RBIs: 77/75 (Rate based career AB/RBI with 629 ABs)

 

Obviously this isn't close to his monster, yet suspension shortened 2012 numbers, but we clearly didn't expect to see those 2012 numbers. Are people expecting him to be something more than a 15 HR .280 hitter from a 1 time all star??

His problem was he started out so slowly without power. I think he puts up better numbers with the improved offense. His defense wasn't good, but he did throw.a lot of guys out and didn't throw to the wrong base all the time.

If Melky put up his second half numbers throughout the whole season, I'd be extremely satisfied. It's about what I expected from him.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 04:42 PM)
If Melky put up his second half numbers throughout the whole season, I'd be extremely satisfied. It's about what I expected from him.

If he can hit .270, with 15 bombs and around 70 rbi, then he's earning his salary. Anyone expecting more than that will be disappointed, but that's on them for having unrealistic expectations.

QUOTE (blackmooncreeping @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 04:48 PM)
If he can hit .270, with 15 bombs and around 70 rbi, then he's earning his salary. Anyone expecting more than that will be disappointed, but that's on them for having unrealistic expectations.

The 3 seasons prior that he had been healthy, he had at least an .800 OPS. Maybe there was help, but he put one up after he was busted. He has more .800 OPS seasons the last 4 years than Cespedes.

I was expecting something closer to his 2011 & 2014 seasons. The power numbers in particular were way down, especially when you consider his move to the Cell. As previous posters mentioned, his 2nd half is much closer to the player most of us were expecting.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 05:42 PM)
If Melky put up his second half numbers throughout the whole season, I'd be extremely satisfied. It's about what I expected from him.

Worth noting how much you're doing the same thing I would be if I said how terrible he was in May - selectively including 1 month.

 

OPS+ by month:

 

Apr: 78

May: 48

June: 100

July: 185

Aug: 107

Sept: 88

 

On the whole season, his spectacular July balances out his terrible May, leaving him as an "average" hitter with a 100 OPS. That would be bad for a DH, it's weak for a corner OF, and if you throw in poor defense, well there you go.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 06:04 PM)
Worth noting how much you're doing the same thing I would be if I said how terrible he was in May - selectively including 1 month.

 

OPS+ by month:

 

Apr: 78

May: 48

June: 100

July: 185

Aug: 107

Sept: 88

 

On the whole season, his spectacular July balances out his terrible May, leaving him as an "average" hitter with a 100 OPS. That would be bad for a DH, it's weak for a corner OF, and if you throw in poor defense, well there you go.

Lol...I saw this post coming a mile away. Unfortunately, you can't be objective with former roiders, so I'm not even going to waste my time. Regardless, I'm confident he will put numbers closer to his 2011 & 2014 seasons than his 2015 season next year. Guys have flukey months and if you watched him hit in May it wasn't the same Melky we've seen im recent years.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 07:10 PM)
Lol...I saw this post coming a mile away. Unfortunately, you can't be objective with former roiders, so I'm not even going to waste my time. Regardless, I'm confident he will put numbers closer to his 2011 & 2014 seasons than his 2015 season next year. Guys have flukey months and if you watched him hit in May it wasn't the same Melky we've seen im recent years.

So you've just literally said you expect Melky to perform like he did in a year when he was almost certainly roiding, 2011 with KC, then he got caught after it got him another year to stay in baseball rather than being cast back to the minors like he otherwise would have been.

 

I'd say that by giving the "month by month" i was being as objective as possible. Ignoring the fact that he was only an above average hitter for 1 "clean" season, his 2014 contract year, and ignoring the fact that he was only an above average hitter for 1 month last year and ignoring all the other months...well that's the way we treat Melky. It's ok if he's weak to terrible for 5 months, but one great month, that's all we ask for, for some reason. That's objective!

 

Excluding the brief stint he had in 2005, his OPS in his career until the moment the braves gave up on him and non-tendered him, his entire pre-steroid career, his OPS was .709. His 2015 OPS was .709.

I honestly had no idea what to expect and have no idea what to expect next year. He came up as a defensive player, then he started hitting, then he got busted, then he started hitting again, who knows what the real Melky is?

Between the Cespedes & Gordon rumors as well as this thread, I just want to say that there has been some great discussion in this forum of late.

He performed exactly as I expected. He receives a lot of undeserved hate for his 2015 performance.

He started off so slow (April May) along with everyone else that by June, half the posters lined up by the clubhouse to drive him to the airport themselves.

 

It's hard to come out of that kind of start even if his second half was pretty good. I expect him to have a productive 2015 in the number 2 hole.

QUOTE (Markbilliards @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 10:22 PM)
I've read a lot of posts on here during the offseason speak about Melky Cabrera like he had an awful year and they expect a big rebound in '16. Or that we should find a way to get rid of him in the same sense we need to get rid of Laroche. I've kind of been wondering why so many people think his 2015 was so bad, and I'm curious what they expected.

 

Perhaps that line of thought is fueled by the dichotomy of his 1st and 2nd half last year, but I don't think he finished much differently than I expected when we signed him. Perhaps a little worse, but nothing too significant.

 

 

Stat: 2015/Career Average

 

AVE: .273/.285

OBP: .314/.336

OPS: .709/.748

HR: 12/12 (Rate based career AB/HR with 629 ABs)

RBIs: 77/75 (Rate based career AB/RBI with 629 ABs)

 

Obviously this isn't close to his monster, yet suspension shortened 2012 numbers, but we clearly didn't expect to see those 2012 numbers. Are people expecting him to be something more than a 15 HR .280 hitter from a 1 time all star??

 

As much as this board talks about (obsesses about?) finances, he's grossly overpaid if all he can give is 15 homers and 75 RBIs. I guess 75 RBIs is the new 110. If that's the case I guess he's not a total flop. He's another guy who was blah. I'm not a big fan.

No one "stirs the drink" better than Melky after a useless two out double in the bottom of the eighth, while down by twelve runs.

Edited by black jack

We got roughly what I expected. I didn't assume he'd have such an up and down year, but I figured his bat would hover near league average and his defense wouldn't be very good.

Everything was what I expected except slugging was lower.

Melky can hit. The improved lineup will help him. The priority needs to be getting him as many ABs as possible at DH before shifting there full time next year.

I think Melky has performed reasonably well. I hate watching him in the field, but I can't complain with what his final slash line was at the end of the year. His BA was down and he didn't hit many HR's, but his lines were pretty close to or around what his career averages are.

Three years, 42 million. I guess he's not overpaid. 14 mill a year. That's what average players are getting and he's pretty average production-wise in LF.

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