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2016 Democratic Thread

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QUOTE (Brian @ Oct 26, 2016 -> 10:45 AM)
I like the Jon Oliver show but I don't find his comedy that funny. His material and subjects are so well done though.

 

I need to read all the posts before I respond because I am just repeating other people's points.

I don't know that Oliver is necessarily trying to be all that funny, he's just adding levity to keep his audience interested while he talks about boring (but important) s*** like the prison system, or local newspapers covering state legislatures, or corrupt pharmaceutical laws.

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Makes me want to watch old simpsons episodes and daily show episodes honestly.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 26, 2016 -> 09:43 AM)
Oliver definitely has a tendency to drive a joke into the ground or to keep trying to make an unfunny thing stick throughout multiple episodes.

We begin with Election 2016, or as it's also known, "Something Depressing Peppered with a Couple of Naughty Words, Description Getting Progressively Longer as Weeks Progress 2016."

 

hahahaha

QUOTE (shysocks @ Oct 26, 2016 -> 10:54 AM)
We begin with Election 2016, or as it's also known, "Something Depressing Peppered with a Couple of Naughty Words, Description Getting Progressively Longer as Weeks Progress 2016."

 

hahahaha

Only 2 more weeks of him having to lead with election garbage... in his defense though, he did refuse to pretend the nonstop Trump stories were worthy of talking about for a whole year, until it really was time.

QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 26, 2016 -> 09:52 AM)
Makes me want to watch old simpsons episodes and daily show episodes honestly.

We binge seasons 2-8ish at least once a year.

QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Oct 26, 2016 -> 09:57 AM)
Only 2 more weeks of him having to lead with election garbage... in his defense though, he did refuse to pretend the nonstop Trump stories were worthy of talking about for a whole year, until it really was time.

It's not specifically that they're talking about the election, it's the overuse of a joke format to the point that it annoys the audience.

QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Oct 26, 2016 -> 09:49 AM)
I don't know that Oliver is necessarily trying to be all that funny, he's just adding levity to keep his audience interested while he talks about boring (but important) s*** like the prison system, or local newspapers covering state legislatures, or corrupt pharmaceutical laws.

 

I think most of the deep topics are about pointing out absurdities, which is what TDS under Steward was (at least when it was good).

Please don't forget that Jon Stewart was a seasoned on-air talent. From stand up to Short Attention Span Theater to the Jon Stewart Show on MTV and I think Fox, then to this. Noah is a stand up that did a little correspondent work and then was handed the reins to the show. PLUS, I think TDS wanted to try out a foreign voice instead of the disgruntled American sick of the system. Noah needs to find his voice and I don't know if he'll be allowed to in the long run.

Republican base isn't going to learn anything from the past year

 

A new Suffolk University poll released today finds that majorities or pluralities of Trump supporters worry that the election results could be manipulated; believe that if Trump loses, corruption will have been the culprit; think the media is actively coordinating with individual campaigns; and are persuaded that the multiple women who have accused him of unwanted advances are lying to hurt his campaign. At the same time, majorities of the broader electorate reject all of those assertions.
QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 26, 2016 -> 05:01 PM)
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/buckle-up-folks

 

This is so weird. Possibly being naive but hard to believe an 8 pt hillary win would still not see a dem senate.

 

That's in disagreement with both The Upshot and 538, who currently give the Dem's mid-60% chances of winning the Senate. Will be interesting to see what the early voting trends in NV, FL and NC are over the coming days.

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Clinton margins:

VA +8.8

NH +8.1

MN +8.0

MI +7.6

WI +7.2

CO +7.1

PA +7.1

NV +3.4

FL +3.2

NC +2.7

AZ +0.9

OH +0.7

IA +0.4

GA -3.0

5:24 PM - 26 Oct 2016

 

She wins with just the bolded ones.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 26, 2016 -> 05:23 PM)
That's in disagreement with both The Upshot and 538, who currently give the Dem's mid-60% chances of winning the Senate. Will be interesting to see what the early voting trends in NV, FL and NC are over the coming days.

 

Mid 60s though seems so weak. Just really want Kander to win. He is solid fresh blood. Useful seat.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 26, 2016 -> 08:23 PM)
She wins with just the bolded ones.

Plus that doesn't include the Utah wildcard 3-way race.

 

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 26, 2016 -> 08:57 PM)
Plus that doesn't include the Utah wildcard 3-way race.

She seems like the third dog in that race though. More likely she wins GA than Utah.

QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 26, 2016 -> 08:59 PM)
She seems like the third dog in that race though. More likely she wins GA than Utah.

I was more referring to the fact that McMullin could win, thus hurting Trump's already tough road. Clinton has no need for Utah really.

 

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 26, 2016 -> 08:59 PM)
I was more referring to the fact that McMullin could win, thus hurting Trump's already tough road. Clinton has no need for Utah really.

Oh. Yeah but even though that's bad for trumps case it's still leaving a scenario where Clinton sits below 270 and it goes to house.

My guess that Utah Republicans would be the future of Republican Party complicated by the Mormon Mafia hate being spread by Trump supporter camp.

Here is data on early voting turnout in North Carolina in 2016. I'll bet you can guess which set of counties on this graph has larger African American populations and therefore as a total coincidence fewer early voting stops than before the Voting Rights Act pre clearance was gutted.

nc_super_suppressor_counties_2.png

 

But no, the party in charge in that state totally wants everyone to feel welcome there regardless of how they look and that party nationally is welcoming of everyone in that same way.

In some of those counties, early voting polling places went from numbers like 15 and 16 to 1. That was for the first couple of days though, with additional polling places opening yesterday and tomorrow.

 

Still though, it's absolutely ridiculous and just another really, really obvious piece of evidence as to what NC was doing and why Shelby County is probably the worst decision in a century.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 27, 2016 -> 01:40 PM)
In some of those counties, early voting polling places went from numbers like 15 and 16 to 1. That was for the first couple of days though, with additional polling places opening yesterday and tomorrow.

 

Still though, it's absolutely ridiculous and just another really, really obvious piece of evidence as to what NC was doing and why Shelby County is probably the worst decision in a century.

 

Guilford County (basically Greensboro) had only 1/25 of its early voting stations open before today. Neighboring Davidson County, where I live, had 5/5.

 

Btw, I appreciate that multiple local offices on my ballot have only Republicans running. Good effort, Democrats.

Edited by CrimsonWeltall

I did not realize that the RNC has been under a consent decree dating back to 1982 due to intimidating voters at polling places. Shockingly, it's happening again.

 

 

QUOTE (CrimsonWeltall @ Oct 27, 2016 -> 07:55 AM)
Guilford County (basically Greensboro) had only 1/25 of its early voting stations open before today. Neighboring Davidson County, where I live, had 5/5.

 

Btw, I appreciate that multiple local offices on my ballot have only Republicans running. Good effort, Democrats.

 

 

Even with that, The Upshot is estimating that Clinton's up 22 points in early voting in NC so far.

Edited by StrangeSox

QUOTE (CrimsonWeltall @ Oct 27, 2016 -> 08:55 AM)
Guilford County (basically Greensboro) had only 1/25 of its early voting stations open before today. Neighboring Davidson County, where I live, had 5/5.

 

Btw, I appreciate that multiple local offices on my ballot have only Republicans running. Good effort, Democrats.

 

"before today" - is today when they start to open up more?

QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 27, 2016 -> 03:32 PM)
"before today" - is today when they start to open up more?

 

Yes, from my brief look at the statewide list, they're pretty much all open now through November 5th.

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