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Quero traded?

I’m certain they would have called down their payroll last year given the lack of a TV deal. I don’t disagree with you that they usually last year’s revenue as the starting point for the following season, but it’s not one for one and last year was a very unique situation. As such, any full season TV deal this year is going to be better than last year’s contribution.

Kepler is a perfectly fine bridge for Braden. His BA and WOBA last year were below his xBA and xWOBA so there may be some positive regression. For 1 yr and 9m or so, that would be solid.

I do get the vibe the Sox are eager to move Robert. The Reds seem far more likely to me than the Mets at the moment because Cincinnati is going to have to take on some trade risk to land potential impact talent. I do kind of like the idea of Robert & cash for Petty and their Comp B pick. Maybe that’s too much of a return, but I’d love to have Bannister get his hands on Petty while adding another $1M or so to our total draft pool next year.

Get Kepler and then Chase Burns or Sam Aldegheri and we'd complete the Axis

Because either they took the lost last year and need to pay it off, or last year sets the next season's payroll, which has always been the Sox MO. They add or subtract based on what the previous season looks like. This franchise took a mid tens of millions dollars worth of a haircut during the season for their historic revenues on their TV contract, and it also going to affect continuing revenues as it is going to smaller than the previous one going forward.

Kepler was awful last year but I guess if he’s cheap enough

Why?

If we want to trade Robert and redeploy those dollars elsewhere, that’s a totally different matter. I’m just saying I very much doubt that we’d need to move him to afford Murakami’s salary. And yes, I have us right around $84M right now, so another $6M or so to work with to get to that floor.

The effect of not having a TV contract last year is not going to help this year.

Loves, as a Christian loves his fellow man.

when Getz responds: "Do we love Luis Robert? Yes, we absolutely love Luis Robert" the way he nervously restates the question and then answers it sounds almost like i'm talking about i'm talking about my house, to my friends. if i'm talking to my family about our house it's going to be a very different phrasing

Jeez, is it so hard for somebody to pretend to be an MLB insider and post knowing "rumors"?

$90M is super low is my point. I feel very confident that last year was the worst case scenario in terms of payroll given the recent losses and lack of a TV deal to enter the season. And last year we were at about $80M. I think the plan was always to go up some this year without taking on huge long-term dollars. I feel good about the $90M figure being a reasonable, but still conservative figure that protects Jerry’s bottom line in a rebuild year.

There's a big difference between "should" and what JR allows to happen as you know. From what you mentioned previously, I thought you said we were around 61m currently IIRC, so if you add 17m for Murakami and 4.5m for the reliever we just added, we're already around 82-83m, so as you can see we are already getting close to your 90m budget number without addressing SP at all or the BP further. If they move Robert for Petty and eat say 8m of the 20m, we have hit two birds with one stone by going down to around 70m and adding a cash cheap SP with still significant ammo to land another SP and maybe have room for the Houston CF salary if they trade Cannon for him.

Bad defender and base runner who doesnt carry the iso value to trust sustained success as a hitter only imo. Lost some bat speed already last year, getting older, and just think that iso and bat speed continues down from here. I also just dont trust thet he's suddenly hitting lefties.

The company line changed over time. Getz started out down-playing expectations but then started moving towards saying they would add through free agency, and they would be aggressive in their pursuits. Not talking $150M, but definitely more than $60M.

I hope you’re right, but the internal belief in the organization was that the payroll would be quite low. I have no idea what to expect now.

Yeah, O'Hearn was a much reported target and that was when he probably looked like 2/$20M. Then a starting pitcher, then a high-leverage arm. This has all been leaked/reported.

So if the old story about how no one every took their gains was actually true, the fact they had nine figures in debt means those gains are long gone.

Why do you think he’s going to turn into a pumpkin?

He's a dude that is a peak 60 to 65. But yeah, he has to stay healthy, and he has to condition himself to go 180 innings. Neither of those are a for sure thing. But him and Smith you really, really need to get a #1 starter out of, especially now that Grant Taylor is out of the picture in the rotation.

He’s had consistently above league average offense for 3 seasons. It’s certainly not sexy, but credit where it’s due.