SoCalChiSox

Remember last year NYY wanted Beni too but offered less. I think they are trying to buy low on him, because now that he's more than a year from his surgery, his game should improve. Near the end of the season, his SLG started really improving (or maybe it was just the month of August). If Beni is 285/365 and can get back to even 15 HRs that's actually a pretty useful player and NYY needs LHH too. In this hypothetical, if CWS ate half the cost, if he's fully back, NYY would be getting a bargain at basically like 8m a year from their end. If we are going to sell him, I think there's a good argument to be had that he could provide real value at the deadline if he's back to a 2.5 WAR player. I'm not sure Getz wants to get rid of him. He seems like a Getz type of guy.

At least some things are starting to move

Nah.....Kopech is Bannister's project.

7.5m per year? Ehh not bad. Hopefully he can eat some innings. Still hope they add another vet

I dont think they would empty their system for both. I think their primary concern right now is just Cease and it will only require 2 Top 100s plus a decent third piece. That won't put much of a dent in them. Just for that I don't see what the issue is for Elias. He has alot of duplicative talent in multiple spots which is not an efficient allocation of resources, certainly not something "the Rays would do" as you said. I dont see what's the big deal about giving up a RF and a 2B when you have like 4-5 quality IFers and a couple quality OFers. Let's assume for the sake of argument that he doesn't want to give up Cowser. But Cowsers profile if things break right is basically Beni circa 2018 with BOS before his power disappeared...a good all around player who hits for good AVG, good OBP, good D and also 20 HRs. That's a very nice 3 WAR player but ultimately not a massive loss for them. They've got savages everywhere. Same for Hjerstad. If he pans out, it's like .260/.325 with 25-30 HRs and a good arm in RF. Again, good player but not a killer loss for BAL. Cease may not win them the WS but he almost certainly could win them a series or even two. Their rotation, if not supplemented by legit talent, is not built to win anything in a short series where its your Top 3 vs their Top 3. They will not win a series against an opponent with two really good pitchers, cause that's 4 starts right there where they'll be the underdog.

For Cease and Robert, we would basically want everything, Holliday, Basallo, Mayo, Cowser, Hjerstad, Ortiz, Hall, Norby, Bradfield, Povich. Everything and then duplicative stuff you can trade away later for other needs. You could later move a couple of these guys for Top 100 pitchers if need be. Send it all over.

I feel there's been alot of smoke re BAL the last couple days, between this, Morosi and Getz saying we are not "very close" as opposed to not close. My gut sense is there is tentative agreement on the top two pieces, but haggling over the third piece and I think with even more pitching coming (Fedde, maybe Flaherty), they are going all in on BALs positional talent, even for the third piece. My gut sense is they want Bradfield as the third piece, as a future speedy, defense first CFer in place by the time Robert is moved in a couple years so they don't have to fill that hole. Getz seems to prefer D and speed so it makes sense. I think the Sox would accept Hjerstad/Cowser, Norby and Bradfield if Elias can actually grow a pair.

If Getz can secure Bradfield as the third piece in the Cease trade, Robert could probably be moved as soon as mid 2025 IMO. Getz seems to value defense and speed I think they want a credible replacement in CF coming down the pike if/when he's moved.

To be fair, Balta has suggested that no one (perhaps aside from Robert) has any substantial value, not just Santos. Lip Man has really been banging the drum on the whole Santos specifically is worthless thing.

I've been told a million times Santos has no value due to his injury.

I'm feeling good right now about this trade, especially with Morosi pointing at BAL. Getz saying they are not close feels like gamesmanship to me. I get a gut feeling that they are close and close with BAL specifically....maybe even just haggling over the third piece now. Ohtani, Yamamoto, other SPs do not change BALs position at all since like us they swim in only the kiddie pool.

Agreed.

Prolly should cost 4 Top 100 with at least 2 in the Top 50.

This

By contrast, to the extent that there's a few things in his game that haven't gotten wrecked yet, we will take care of that here. He should go to NY, where there's a real pitching lab infrastructure and legit coaches, oh and it's not a fucking dumpster fire.

If he's smart, he will sign with NYM.

He actually does look like he is in great shape for an 87 year old. I'd peg him at no more than 70 just from that picture. He will end up being like Castro. Except, instead of outliving like 10 Presidents, JR will outlive like 5 generations of Sox fans. Lol

Yep good point

I thought it was the other way around? We wanted Cowser as the main piece and they said no.

It's mostly an issue of limited space. If they trade with BAL for example, there's no place for Kelenic. JR isnt going to have the highest paid player on the team sitting on the bench and you don't trade for Cowser/Hjerstad only to sit them. But if it's an issue of just Colas and no other additions yeah I don't think they care about him.

Uh oh...this doesn't seem good at all. Maybe ATL is proposing to send AJSS, Waldrep, Gonzales, Grissom and Kelenic to Chicago. If they kept Kelenic it wouldn't make sense because it's too much overkill on the pitching side for Chicago to get the 2 pitchers and Gonzales. We need to get legit position players and by legit position players I don't mean Grissom.

That would contradict the vast majority of the reporting out there, including by highly credible people like Rosenthal. It's very unlikely Cease would garner only a single Top 100 plus lottery tickets. It's more likely that in this market two Top 100 players is the absolute floor. IMO...a Top 50, plus someone in the back half of the Top 100 plus someone in the 10-20 range of a deep system is what I expect.

If the Sox are intent on getting a legit ready to play OF prospect in the Cease trade or giving Colas another shot after more development, then it wouldn't make sense at all to target Kelenic.

Same here. IMO, just about anything would be better than a straight up ATL trade but this would be legitimately exciting.

BTW....Baseball Trade Values has the values as almost identical for all three teams in terms of what each is giving up vs recieving so it would be fair. To BAL: Waldrep To CWS: Smith-Shawver, Hjerstad To ATL: Cease BAL swaps out surplus OF talent for SP talent where they are thin. ATL gets Cease. CWS gets both legit position player and legit SP