Look at Ray Ray Run

Anderson's past still has some weight here, even with me weighting 2019 more than most publicly available publication. As for Lindor, we see a similar thing, as I weigh the last 18 months more than the last 36 months by nearly 1.8 times. This will skew my projections to be impacted, maybe too much, by some recency bias but I like that aggressive outlook. Also, Anderson's defense I can't really project much better than below average - despite his tools. I don't even know how to write a model to account for skills (range) over outcomes defensively; I'm not smart enough. If Anderson's defense improves, those projections go up 1-2 WAR a year.

If he improved over last year and stayed healthy, you're looking at a 7-8 WAR season (Mookie and Trout territory). I'll take another 5 WAR season from the guy if that's OK with him though.

Yeah, I think the Abreu thing does matter. I know people don't want to hear it, but it's amazing to hear someone like Mazara talk about Abreu with such glowing endorsement even though they just met. It's even more exciting to see Yoan glowing about the Sox extending him after he said he said he wanted to be here for life... then Yoan says the same thing.

"He believes this work will help give him the stamina late in the year to boost his stolen base totals, but admits that when he said improving that was his big goal for 2020, it was really just the most specific thing he could think of. “Overall I think I can do better in every aspect of the game, even much better than I did last year,” Moncada said. And the biggest piece and line in this entire article: Moncada, when speaking of the loyalty and appreciation the Sox showed to Abreu said: “I would like to stay here,” Moncada said through Russo. “I think this is a very good organization with a lot of good people. Definitely I would like to stay here and be a White Sox forever too.” Actions speak louder than words, and players have said this before only to leave but citing how they took care of Abreu as a reason for why he wants to stay for life too is certainly exciting. And one quote from Timmy just for more love: (Timmy lives in Chicago in the off-season despite the winters) “I play here so I think it’s only right,” said Anderson, who lives in Flossmoor with his wife Bria and their two daughters. “To be able to play here and go home to my kids every night. But for the most part, man, it kind of feels like home. I came here and felt connected instantly.”

I'm 99.9% sure this tweet was directed right at Steve in this thread.

While he was of course lucky to have a 399 BABIP, it wasn't more lucky than a guy running a 340 BABIP with an expected at 300. Or a guy running a 320 with an expected at 280. The size of the number doesn't really matter, and Tim is certainly capable of improving his power and his defense which would off-set anything he lost from a .40 point BABIP spike.

https://theathletic.com/1476009/2019/12/20/yoan-moncadas-2020-goal-is-clear-play-every-single-game/?source=shared-article This is pretty exciting, and of course wonderful work by Fegan again. Here's to hoping Yoan gets out there for all 162 and starts a streak of longevity. In summary: After spending last year tirelessly working on his approach in the off-season - trying to get the most out of his elite tools - Moncada has shifted his focus on his legs and staying healthy for next year this off-season. Maybe this will mean Yoan is on the move more this next season as well.

Based on what?

It is certainly possible.

Can't believe anyone would want to trade this man: Face of the organization and the rebuild.

This is literally not at all what happened. Trout took less money than he'd get on the open market because he didn't give a fuck about the extra million when he had 400 coming his way.

So Tim Anderson runs a 350 BABIP, instead of a 399 BABIP, and his defense improves and he gets to a little more power. What do his numbers look like? I have Anderson projected for a 352 BABIP next year. Slashing 306/332/521 good for a wRC+ of 121. Anderson's wRC+ last year was 130 while Lindor's was 114. 2 years ago Lindor had a 130 wRC+ and was a 7+ fWAR player. I can't believe how many people on the internet like to cite players stats from when they were 24 while completely writing off major adjustments and changes made sense.

These are from my data; take it for whatever it is worth to you. Maybe nothing. I combined 4 projection tools, and I weight league wide changes more quickly - which does not mean it's more efficient, but it means someone like Anderson might not be dinged as much for an escalated BABIP if league wide BABIPs were high, while Lindor was docked slightly for an iso decline despite a league wide iso escalation. I don't think what I do is perfect, and weighting league wide changes into the following year can lead to issues (such as baseball changing the baseballs back and those past changes being artificial) but I do trust my projections on players with Anderson's profile/pedigree and while I am certainly more optimistic than other services, I also tend to factor/believe in changes much more quickly as I prefer a 2 year and 18 month past look to the standard 3 year. Time will tell, but I don't think 15ish WAR over the next 5 years is crazy for Anderson.

Well, that's not at all what I did but sure. Last year, Tim Anderson had a better WAR/600 than Lindor. Lindor is absolutely a better player - there is no denying that - but when taking into account their contracts and control I certainly don't think it's absurd to say 5 years of Anderson at his price is more valuable than 2 years of Lindor at his price.

Nah, I didn't. I took their projected WAR's from my data. Lindor projected for 5.2 and 4.8 WAR. Tim Projected for: 3.4, 3.1, 3.1, 2.8, 2.6. I use 9 million/per WAR as my value calculation.

Age: Anderson - 26 Lindor - 26 2019: Anderson - 3.5 fWAR - 4.05 WAR/600 Lindor - 4.4 fWAR - 4.03 WAR/600 Contract: Anderson - 5 years/47.25 million Lindor - 2 year/40 million (estimate) Surplus: Anderson - 87.75 Million Lindor - 50 million Lindor is really good, but I'll go ahead and hang onto Anderson and not trade him ++ other high end pieces for 2 years of Lindor.

Gio. Wilbon knows so little about baseball and never pays attention so he probably thinks its 2012 gio gonzalez.

Yeah, last year was really good - even better. Problem is I dont think hes talented/athletic enough or a good enough defender to play the OF for them so theres really no use for him.

Maybe it would cost that, but giving up Anderson, Madrigal + another piece for Lindor would be a complete rape. Anderson surplus value alone probably worth more than lindors for the rest of his control.

Soxtalk: why do people make fake and post fake baseball rumors?!?! Its so dumb. Soxtalk: *4 pages discussing a fake Lindor to white sox rumor*

Can you blame the guy? Somehow he was coming of a 2.2 WAR season and 5.5+ WAR 2 season outlook and he said he got ONE single MLB offer last off season. That's crazy.

Not sure I'd assume this. The Sox targeted both - I imagine the front office has the final say so who they chose to target first was more indicative of their position than grandals.

Yeah, they clearly asked grandal for his thoughts on pitching and I'd be shocked if they signed Gio without a glowing endorsement from Grandal.

Yeah, gio fired boras.

Dont think for one second that this didnt have something to do with grandals opinion if him last year in Milwaukee