Look at Ray Ray Run

During the best stretch of his year, he had 1 plus pitch and 4 negative pitches. You're getting way too caught up in a k/9 rate that was heavily influenced by 10k's vs a terrible Nats offense down the stretch where his fastball played way up (throwing 96.5!). Small samples are almost never worth looking at as a baseline for future performance. The other guys on your list are ACTUAL starters too. Who went through lineups multiple times and pitched into the 5th inning.

I follow all arms throughout the league throughout the year. Watching starts doesn't afford me much more insight than following the way I do. I do not have Burke projected to be a viable MLB starter. I get you're in optimistic mode and amped up but it doesn't change that. You like Burke. I did at one point too. Now I've gathered more data on him and he's much less intriguing and is a likely nothing burger.

I'll come back to this to. Thorpe was a very polarizing prospect. He's basically the second coming of Kyle Hendricks, but being Kyle Hendricks means you have to be perfect. Hendricks basically was that for 6 years, but anytime Hendricks hasn't been perfect he's been a bum. Additionally, Hendricks never really missed bats like Thorpe did in the minors, so he was always pitching to contact. With Thorpe, I think he's going to have a steep learning curve pitching to more contact. The funny thing about command and walks is that while the higher in level you go the more predictive of your MLB production, those on the extreme ends of the curve (BB rate) have less correlation. This is driven mainly by guys who attack the zone until they can't anymore (MLB). Thorpe could be one of those guys. Or maybe he adds 2 MPH post-surgery like Skubal, his fastball goes to avg and he dominates the league with his secondaries. Maybe he was hurt throughout all his MLB time and that's something to hang onto. With Thorpe though, the margin for error is so small and he's been everything but pinpoint when up-leveled. With Kay, no I didn't watch his NPB starts. Last time he was in the big leagues, he was bad and his big change was going from 4 seamers up in the zone to throwing a sinker. MLB hitters today are crushing the ball down and being beat up in the zone with four seamers so I'm skeptical of that transformation taking as much hold in the US.

Not a lot of fastball/curveball guys out of the pen anymore in baseball, and his curveball is his best pitch. That's the main reason I don't see the bullpen utility for Burke, because curveballs are challenging to be consistent with/find in short stints. Of course, his stuff could always get better disrupting everything we know about him. It's happened before, but it's not something I would expect or predict.

Run values added are going to be derived from your overall value which is heavily tied to results. Depending on the system you use, the correlation is high enough that you won't see a lot of positives with negative outcomes, but you can see individual pitch values where a pitcher is succeeding despite failure. Burke really doesn't have anything to hang his hat on. I'll also agree that FIP is a better predictor of future production; xERA isn't much better than actual ERA. His FIP being as bad as it was is the #1 indicator of his flaws, but I figured we could get more granular.

The only thing that finished + for him from a pitching grade last year was location. His command was above league average, even with the high walk rate. Problem is he picks around the edges because his stuff isn't good enough.

The problem is you're claiming ebbs and flows in performance are driven by development and not standard performance distributions. In his final 10 appearances, he faced Cleveland twice, the Royals once, the angels once, the Nats once, and Baltimore. That's 5 of the bottom 8 offenses in MLB last year.

Yeah, I was actually pretty optimistic about cannon and still think be may be able to move to the pen because his sinker had been effective until last year. It took a huge step back last year though, and it's possible the league just figured it out. Skubal was very mediocre when he first came up. Before the injury he only threw 94 mph. When he came back he was throwing 96 mph. That 2 mph took a medicore fastball and made it a good one.

Burke was in the 11th percentile in pitching run value. 25th in fastball run value (his best pitch), 4th in off speed run value. Walk rate was in the 15th percentile and barrel rate the 17th. Fastball ranks in the bottom 15% in multiple metrics available (stuff+, value added). After the first time through the order, the league had an 813 ops and he had a 4.81 era. Compare that to the first time through where Burke allows a 737 ops with a 3.4 era. Worst though, his first time through he struck out 66 guys in 252 batters faced. The second+ time, he only struck out 67 guys in 344 batters faced. That was with some good batted ball luck too the second time through which is pretty crazy to think about. Burke stinks. I hate breaking seasons up and finding good periods. It exists with every pitcher in the game. You are the culmination of your stuff throughout a season. His stuff stinks, and he stinks. When I use that word I mean relative to the rest of the actual mlb starters.

Burke cant get through a lineup twice consistently. That's pretty important for a starter. League average? Of 87 starters who threw 130+ innings last year, Burke ranked 81st.

You're much higher on them than me/baseball then IMO. The median 3 year outcome for all of those pitchers is being out of MLB baseball. Kay has literally already been out of MLB. Thorpe had a very very thin line with his velocity. He has an elite pitch though, so maybe he has a shot to stick in the pen. Burke doesn't fool anyone.

I'm happy to get into why each guy is not a viable MLB starter (Kay has that veil of mystery at least... I guess), starting with Burke but when I'm not on mobile. I had some optimism about Burke entering last year, saw his first few starters and did a complete 180. Rest of the year wasn't any better.

Yes.

That's the fun of baseball, I guess it could happen. That said, this team has very little pitching and could very well lose 100 games again. Big error ranges though, as Teel and Colson offer some upside to envision. Of course they also offer downside. Shane taking a step back after an innings load increase wouldn't be surprising, and the rest of the starters stink.

"Could have been a press release" was something pretty funny I read. Sox have so little to be excited about... the comparison was hosting a signing press-conference for Jorge Polanco. Either way, hope Mune proves all the haters wrong and mashes like the Japanese Prince Fielder!

Yeah, this was a perfect storm in that the red flags were very red and teams wanting to compete couldn't afford the downside risk, meanwhile the downside risk for the Sox is just him being another bum fitting in with the guys. Meanwhile, if he overcomes the swing and miss and sits near the same levels in the states then you got a player who has some value.

I mean, obviously a guy who just got 34 million isn't a premier free-agent. That said, great signing. No risk, payroll is in the dumps. Big upside. I'm personally skeptical of those contact rates translating to the big leagues but who gives a s%*#. 2 year deal, Sox have no one else. He'll be exciting, at least for a little while. Also really nice to see us get back into Asia more generally speaking. ++ move.

That is a tough list. Marquez and tantalizing don't belong in the same sentence. Maybe 5 years ago. Batters had a 933 OPS against him last year AWAY from Colorado. Nick Martinez is OK, and Mahle won't stay healthy but I've always liked him. I just don't see Gio or Bassitt coming here. The rest of those guys are potential DFA candidates and then Scherzer who isn't going to come pitch for the Sox unless there's no other offer available. Think he just wants to compete or retire.

I think this makes a lot of sense too for a departure. Transition period for Rays, he maybe not being considered for top positions/roles and uncertain of his future there.

Bankruptcy 😂 Name calling? Are you Chris Getz? The way you defend Getz is honestly worthy of a restraining order pal. Telling some guy who doesn't want to invest in the team that he'll cut spending to the floor if he just gives him a few pennies (relatively) for some tech and back office resources is not managing up. I can't speak for the titles and levels within the Rays, but his role is expanded with the White Sox, there are fewer VP's/aGM's around him increasing his scope of impact and responsibility, and dare I say the path to GM with the White Sox is much cleaner/more possible than the path to GM of the Rays. Maybe they promised or stated he was next up. Either way, without knowing the details I'd be skeptical that he was moving over without an enhancement of money and responsibility. Edit: He was also unemployed.

Conforto? Jeeze, that's landfill diving not even dumpster diving. You kick the tires too much around him, they're bound to explode.

Managing up is probably one of the most important attributes of any leader who is deserving of promotion/next steps in their career. If you can't manage up, you simply won't succeed. In Getz role, managing up now means getting his boss (ownership) to do uncomfortable things, sign bigger contracts etc. Never forget that the Padres weren't big spenders until Preller came in and sold ownership. Getz has the Sox running the lowest relative payroll since I followed the team. People are celebrating Getz selling a vision to a guy he is literally offering a promotion too. The promotion alone is the most valuable thing he's selling. It doesn't mean the guy isn't smart or capable. As I said, wouldn't have minded hiring him as our GM. Instead, that guy's now got an idiot above him that he has to overcome to succeed at his job.

I've had situations where I had horrible leaders, and I've still succeeded in transformations and leading. All jokes aside, seems like a fine hire. Guy has a good background with nice success. Assistant GM's aren't really moving needles though in the baseball world, so most teams/fans wouldn't really be celebrating news like that. If he was our actual GM, maybe I'd be more excited. Instead, the guy we have is way in over his head as has been apparent for 2+ years now.

Not sure I can get too excited when super star Chris Getz was also our assistant GM and even his greatness couldn't overcome a tough situation.

Wow, this would be a lot of money for a guy who very well might not stick at the MLB level with that swing and miss. I don't disagree with you though, I have his deal closer to 5 years 100 million (Maybe Sox can claim he's their first 100 million dollar guy!!!). Just imagining Jerry paying a high posting fee for a player is pretty funny to think about. Not happening. My fear is if it did happen, this guy would flop so hard Jerry might pull back his sale and murder all Sox fans while on his death bed.