Vulture

Well you might be right there, but the question remains is it worth committing close to 25% of payroll to such a player even if it is only three years? Imagine a 2019 performance at 35 mil a year. He'd practically need a security team to travel to the park

I don't see how my comment was any different than the one I responded to. You cited stats to support he is worth 35 mil, I cited stats to support he is not. Except my argument is more reasonable since he is clearly not comparable to players making 35 million a year. If you search my history for Quintana you will find a post where I show how Quintana also started a season with an eleven game stretch comparable to Bauer's, but in his case, 73% of his starts were not against bottom six offenses or 91% against bottom ten. Did that suddenly make Quintana among the top paid players in baseball? No, despite the fact Quintana's performance prior to those eleven starts was superior, it did not.

253 strikeouts doesn't do you much good when you allow 101 free passes(82 BB, 19 HBP) and 34 home runs, resulting in 118 runs allowed, as happened in 2019. If you go by his entire track record, he should be getting Keuchel money. Obviously he'll get more than that since his dominant eleven start stretch against one of the worst collections of offenses a pitcher could possibly face, but itd be kind of foolosih to put him into the stratosphere of top salaries.

Of his 11 starts, eight were against bottom six offenses in baseball: two were against the worst offense in baseball(PIT), six were against bottom six offenses(3 vs MIL, 2 vs DET, KC), two we're against a bottom ten offense(cubs). Only one game against an average or better offense(Sox), in which he did pitch well, but still gave up two home runs to take the loss. 35 mil a year puts him in Cole/Verlander/Kershaw, etc territory, but he doesn't have the track record to match.

I don't think he gets into Cole range based on 11 starts exclusively against relatively weak central division opponents.

4/100-5/135 range

Staten Island attendance has dropped to about 1800 a game while Atlantic League attendance is closer to 6,000 a game. Seems like it would be a win to me. Maybe the owners would rather soak the Yankees/mlb than invest in a greater reward with the Atlantic League. Independent minor league baseball is vastly more entertaining. Low level minor games are like watching practice, guys just getting their at bats and innings in. Baseball would be better off with more independent leagues and less affiliated leagues IMO. Do teams really have 200 viable prospects each or need six levels of advancement? Might as well cut the fluff and let independent baseball thrive. If you have prospects that can't handle A ball, rent them out to independent teams until you're ready to assign them like the old days. I live in a minor league town, I enjoy going to a couple of games, but do I actually care about the team? No, not at all. Not even the same team by the time playoffs come around, let alone the next year. I'd take an independent league team every day of the week over that.

Except McCann has a higher WAR since beginning of 2019. Doesn't necessarily mean McCann is as good, but it raises the question. And the first part of his post is certainly true. McCann could have been had at probably 7-8 mil a year vs Grandal at 18.5. People say McCann would have been over exposed with more playing time, but he would have had to hit .140 with a .250 slugging in those extra at bats to equal Grandal. Granted, losing ten points on his obp is easier to imagine, but that's still speculative. In actual performance we know for sure, McCann outperformed him over the last 222 games.

Well, ZIPs projections are useless as far as I'm concerned. Sox can use a left handed bench bat, and I don't think it would be that easy to find one with that kind of possible upside for a couple million. If you think Leury or Engle have it, I don't know what to tell you. I like Engel but he isn't even close to Dahl in terms of overall talent. I don't know where you see a comparable left handed hitting, or otherwise, outfielder to scoop up from our system either. Nor would I suggest not signing Colas, but there is no way he helps us in the next two years regardless. I would think they have a separate budget for signing prospects

Well, yeah. The attraction to Dahl is the low investment possible high reward. I don't know about Cali, but I like him as a depth move not as the primary RF acquisition.

No, the LeMahieu numbers I cited were over his career. How about this for a single season comparison: Dahl '19 Home: .349/.402/.598 Away: .254/.302/.449 LeMahieu '18 Home: .317/.360/.433 Away .229/.277/.422 .751 away ops vs .699

LeMahieu also had a 200+ ops split with the Rockies. On top of that his road OPS was an inferior .670. Seems like an apt comparison to me. If, in addition to that, the study of ex rockies batters in general he referred to is true, I fail to see how the argument is fooking stoopid.

If you're going that route, might as well go with Pederson. Its not like Schwarber is that great of a hitter to justify having a sub par outfield defense that could cost who knows how many runs. We've got a gold glove CFer. Would be kind of a waste to put the worst possible defense around him to come up with a net zero result. Bad defense and bad bullpens lose playoff series. If Sox haven't constructed a roster that keeps Leury out of the outfield, aside from rare instances, I'd consider that a failure. Leury can't be the measure for anything aside from utility infielder.

I thought it was an excellent post. **** 'em.

Yeah but the Sox aren't going to play Schwarber in favor of Eloy regardless.

I find that hard to believe considering he has started in center field, including twenty games this year. I don't think there is a team in baseball that would even consider playing schwarber an inning in CF. If we had JBJ as well, Sox could slide a gold glover into CF if needed and have Dahl and Engel to cover right. Strange thing his metrics are actually better in CF than in LF. To me that doesn't compute. I don't know how much faith I have in these defensive stats. They've got Griffey down as a career 0.2 defensive war for example.

Yeah I'd rather have Vaughn and Dahl for DH considering there is a good chance the Sox will need to cover injuries in the OF. I get you're saying cover dh, I'd prefer to cover both. If Vaughn succeeds, Schwarber is practically useless. Imagine Robert or RF goes down, and Vaughn is hitting. I don't want Eloy and Schwarber covering the corners. Also much more likely Dahl would be agreeable to that kind of role considering he has never had 400 abs in his career and presumably could be had at a fraction of the cost, allowing the extra money to be invested in pitching

Truth is there is no telling what the Sox might do. Did anyone actually foresee the Grandal signing? No point getting upset over speculàtion

JBJ in RF and Vaughn at DH with Dahl as fourth OFer, DH and in effect backup 1B with Vaughn playing for Abreu in event of injury or regular days off.

How would that give them leverage? I don't think he'd be in QO territory, although I could be mistaken. You're overlooking the giving up assets portion of the argument as well

Could be, unless a team like the Yankees overlooks his 2020 performance. Still wouldn't be my choice on a one year budget deal when we have Vaughn and Eloy

Not necessarily. I don't think we're the only ones who would prefer signing a free agent to giving up assets in addition to only getting one year of control for said assets. I'd bet he gets a three year deal at close to ten million per.

How can you take Vaughn out of the equation? If you have Vaughn, Abreu and Eloy already, you want someone who can do something beyond DH. Not that complicated. I'd go with JBJ and Dahl if Springer is out of the equation. Then you'd have a guy in Dahl you could plug in for any of the outfielders in event of injury, or Abreu via Vaughn, or Vaughn.

Because not every team is looking to dump salary like the cubs are.

Was he? That's not the way I remember it