Chisoxfn

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 10:26 AM) Thanks Jas, I appreciate it. It sounds silly, but I find this stuff incredibly interesting. There is a reason I passed up sportscasting and broadcasting to stay with econ. based things. I think you and Matt do an outstanding job going back and forth too. Its very educational and a great read. I bet a blog or even podcast would be very cool for you guys. Of course I have no clue what kind of market there is for stuff like that. But you guys teach me more than the people on CNBC and stuff do. I think they have some great stuff in the morning but the more perspective the better as I'm continually trying to learn more and more how markets work.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 10:35 AM) What was his date of being placed on the DL? I don't think that it has even been 15 days yet. He was placed on the DL on August 13th so he should be good to go. Sox might stall though because having both him and Wise on the DL will enable the club to have two more players eligible for the post-season roster.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 10:33 AM) Rock, How do you explain 6 consecutive seasons of terrible hitting in April and August? April should be easily explained. It is the coldest month of the year and at the start of the major league season pitchers are typically a little ahead of the hitters (which is weird, because hitters are ahead of pitchers at the beginning of spring training). Plus the team happens to have a few hitters that are notorious slow starters.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 10:30 AM) Where the hell is Getz?!? Is he on the 60 day disabled list? Seems like he's been gone forever. I wouldn't be shocked if he's back up here any day now. He began his rehab assignment yesterday in Charlotte and I figure it'll only take him a couple days down there before he's ready. He's hitless in his first two games in Charlotte though.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 08:29 AM) Beckham is in a slump and didn't look good at the late at all. Time to send him down for more seasoning Good job by CQ, PK and JT but I was troubled by the bulpen effort again. Dotel imploded and Jenks gave up the homer in the 9th to the first batter mind you that he faced. Good thing it wasn't another 2-2 game. The Sox need Getz back so he can get a start or two at 2B with Nix playing 3B and giving Beckham about two full days to rest. He's hitting that wall and it should be expected given that he's never played this many games in his professional career.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 07:55 AM) 1. "other less biased media outlets"? Than WSJ and Crain's? WTF? 2. The housing market has all the signs of a dead cat, because it has all the signs of hitting a floor. That's why everything we're seeing now is positive. There will probably be one more dip, or a leveling, into early next year, as the tax incentives wear off, but that's expected and not a bad thing at all. The only two things that are really worriesome for the next year or two in housing are increased unemployment (which we'll probably see at least a little bit of), and the looming inflation issue's effects on mortgage rates. And those are definitely big. But I think the overall strength is building - and we'd likely see a slow, choppy rise over the next few years. Downticks as rates go up and employment goes down, upticks when employment goes up again. 3. As for history bearing you out about unemployment, that is only partially true. Its always the laggard. Economic growth needs people to have jobs, but typically the growth starts around when unemployment tops, not after. Then they move in concert. That's why the market has priced in some spiky growth next 2 quarters, but sustained, more predictable growth next year. Inflation is the scary monster next year, IMO. That is the biggest X factor in how quickly we recover, or if we dip deeply again, in 2010. In terms of the housing market, I think the biggest reason we are seeing numbers increase a bit is a, because it was down for such an extended period of time, but also B because the supply is actually very very low (shockingly low). Now I'm basing the above on my market and as we all know, real estate differs across the country pretty significantly, but no one got hit much harder than SoCal during the housing and mortgage bubble (we not only had inflated housing prices crash and a large % of the new wave of financing, but we were also home to the corporate headquarters of most of those lenders) and right now prices have went up a bit the past few months (during summer which is the typical peak season for real estate). The problem is, when you look out there you'll see that the only things on the market (and I'm talking about 80% and higher are short sales and REO's). There are about 20% equity sellers (and I actually think I'm exaggerating as there are far less than that). Short sales are pretty much non-existent as they are very very difficult to get closed so really the only available homes are REO's and the ocassional equity seller and because of this people sitting out there looking to buy a home (ie, the young and new families trying to take advantage of the first semi-affordable market in our young adult lives). So Bottom line, Mike is completely on par in saying that this housing rebound is anything other than a minor blip. Is stuff going to dive bomb, absolutely not, but there is enough out there that will prevent any true recovery for a lot longer (I do think it is pretty safe to buy, if not a great time to buy if you can, but that time window should be around for another couple years, at least in my area).

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 07:45 AM) I don't buy the modern bias anymore. It wasn't too long ago that people believed that the market has gotten so effecient at pricing in information, that a negative PE could be interpreted as a good thing. 10 years later over 90% of the dotcoms are busts or buyouts. I still believe in history and understanding what the numbers are telling you, and why they are saying what they are. The housing market has all of the signs of a deadcat bounce. Unemployment is still rising, as is the hidden unemployment of people who either have been taken off of the official roles because they have exhausted their benefits, or have taken much less paying/part time work out of desparation. The other big factor in homebuying is ease of credit, and that hasn't really changed that much in the last 10 months or so either. Also remember that employment lags confidence in the system by 6-12 months, and foreclosures also lag unemployment by about the same margin. There is still a large chunk of supply that hasn't come onto the housing market, not to mention, much like the hidden auto demand, there is also the hidden housing supply of people who want to sell their houses, but feel that they can't for one reason or another (worried about losing job, upside down on loan, houses not selling in area so not trying, etc). Even if hiring really did take off today, it would be a year to two years before you could really point to a true housing recovery. More numbers I have seen bantered around as proof are the durable goods and GDP revisions... This is pretty simple stuff to explain away as well. The two biggest components in durable goods are airplanes and autos. Autos numbers being reported are in the midst of the cash for clunkers bounce. Once you remove auto numbers from durable goods, that number becomes near zero growth. That same growth is also responsible for a good chunk of GDP growth. Remember, no one seemed to be able to forecast how successful this program would be, which means it wasn't factored in as "expected" in any of the growth figures for Q3. Now moving on to Q4 you have removed pretty much all automotive demand from this system, both pent up demand and the future demand from people who realized that this was the best deal they were going to ever see, so they moved and took delivery sooner than they probably would have. As for other durables, people who are employed and able to buy are also still scared of losing their jobs, as unemployment is still increasing. If you are scared of losing your job, you aren't going to run out and spend savings money to buy a new fridge or TV unless you have to do so. The proof here is that savings rates in the US are still at levels we haven't seen in decades, and again, even the slight dip in the number can be explained by the artificial demand of cash for clunkers spending. I also saw your point about articles of people investing in the stock market, but I am still reading articles about people who are afraid to invest in the same market, in other, less market biased media outlets. The Sunday Tribune just had one. Finally I really believe that we have to see unemployment take a real turn before I will believe actual growth is coming. The fundementals of the markets have to change, and not just by artificial government means. For all of those auto sales, does anyone think any jobs are going to be saved? That is the question we should be asking. Until jobs come back for real (not just accounting tricks brought on by people who can't file for benefits anymore, or are working part time/at a fraction of former salaries.) we aren't going to sustain anything. History bears this out, not just me. Mike I like the above. Very good and informative post. I think you should blog on the economy!!!

Allen stroked that HR last night and did have 4 RBI but I think Ozzie ball did a great job summing up what you can project his offensive numbers to be and they aren't that special. Pena has the chance to be an upper echelon reliever and he has been over one season in his career. Will he do it again, I don't freaking know, but 1st baseman that put up those sort of numbers aren't as valuable as we think they are (in terms of trade). I didn't like trading Allen cause he might do better than Ozzie projected but I think in general Ozzie's projections in the article look fairly accurate and realistic. I wish BA the best of luck, but I'm not going to write off Tony Pena just yet.

Well, I spose it stays as is

Freaking sweet to see the Sox get a win. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Fields get a start or two and give Beckham a bit of a breather. Now its time to let that win be the start of something bigger.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 12:06 PM) Why do people keep mentioning PK being gone? He's under contract. I think he's one of the leaders and he tends to play tight so if Kenny wanted to make a change that is where you'd probably start. AJ won't be the guy.

QUOTE (b-Rye @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 02:58 PM) Thats why he needs to be fired.... the vets haven't hit since 05. This team hits more lazy popouts in one game than any other team does in a week. They need to make adjustments because pitchers get scouting reports and hitters have to make adjustments so they're not getting pounded with a pitch they can't or in there redzone. There ABs are crap for being so talented.. The thing is the vets have hit. Dye has played above his career levels, Paulie has been relatively consistent while healthy, Thome has been what he is for an aging slugger. AJ is having a career year and had always played up to his career levels.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 25, 2009 -> 05:59 PM) Only the third one is true. First one did indeed happen, two rounds of them, and I've seen them closed in town. Another round may come though. Second one already partially happened, and likely will get worse, but supports will be there for development too, so it won't be as horrible as the broader crash was. Inflation, though, I'm right with you there. When the economy does kick back up in a year or two, inflation will go up big, IMO. Its why now is a very good time to buy a house if you can. Get a great rate locked in before inflation hits. Of course than you have a whole nother potential issue that will keep the housing prices very stagnant for a long time because people won't look to move due to the cost of financing. It will be an interesting next 10 years, imo.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 01:03 PM) Apparently, an article I think it was, came out and stated Walker doesn't handle the vets, just the new guys coming up. So with guys like AJ, Thome, Dye, PK, it's all on them. Walker handles guys like Getz, Alexei, Fields, Beckham(though I wouldn't tinker with him at all), Quentin, and god knows about Rios. I'd say, although I'd like to see Walker fired, he's done somewhat decent. I think there is better out there though. And I want a hitting coach who isn't afraid to coach older guys. Bring back Hriniak. Vets need to be in pretty long slumps before they tend to go to the hitting coach.

QUOTE (son of a rude @ Aug 26, 2009 -> 07:03 PM) but... he's ozzie's good buddy.... The Sox don't keep guys around because they are friends with people. Walker was very very upset with Ozzie last year for a long time. Walks a professional.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 02:43 PM) Since 2005 the only guy he really turned around was Thornton. He gets way too much praise IMO. Gavin Floyd made huge strides with Cooper. John Danks has grown a lot with Cooper (Buehrle has helped as well). Javier Vazquez was better under Cooper, although he wasn't as good as we all wanted him to be. Jose Contreras was at his finest with Coop. On the offensive side: Uribe (while never great) had his best offensive years with Walker Crede made strides with Walker (injuries effected him from ever having multiple good offensive seasons though and he really only had one good offensive season) But as a whole, Walker hasn't had a lot of young players to work with so you can't really say he's had a chance. And don't tell me Andy Gonzalez. His only big failures so to speak are the Nick Swishers of the world and it was well documented that Swisher didn't listen to Walker anyway. I really think Walker gets a lot more hate than he should, but I also think Coop does deserve a lot of credit, but it doesn't mean he's always perfect.

We changed the sports-pub up and set-up specific sub forums for basketball, hockey, and football. That way all of those threads went in there but there is still a sports forum for the more generic sports. It breaks stuff up a lot and maybe that is a bad thing, but it would also keep things clean and maybe encourage a lot more generic sports debate as opposed to sticking stuff in these one massive threads. What do you all think?

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 02:39 PM) I just find it odd that people are so inconsistent between him and Walker. AJ, Pods, and Beckham are having nice offensive years and Walker gets no credit. Just about the entire bullpen and 3 out of 5 starters suck and no one criticizes Coop. I personally am consistent. I don't call for Walker to get fired, nor do I call for Cooper to get fired. I like both of them and in general I'm relatively happy with the coaching staff.

QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 01:45 PM) They're watching the make-believe version of Tony Pena because it helps them when they complain about the Pena-Allen trade over and over, and over, and over... And if anyone sees a straight fastball, don't you see the downward plain he gets on his pitches, as well as the run. He rarely throws anything straight (hell, he's known for his sinker). He just hasn't had any command for it and the sinker is starting too far up in the zone (so that it stays there) and the movement is running into the bats and the middle portion of the plate. He's just a mess right now, but the guy has a dynamite arm. So did Aardsma and MacDougall, but I never have a problem taking a chance on guys with Pena's arm and I think an off-season with the Sox and some minor tweaks could make him a well above-average set-up men (which is a very very valuable commodity).

QUOTE (joeynach @ Aug 26, 2009 -> 11:10 PM) Has anyone else noticed that Tony Pena has terrible stuff. After watching him pitch for over a month now I believe his pitches can best be described as floating 90-92 mph fastballs. Is it not obvious that all his pitches tend to naturally HANG, especially over the middle of the plate. He needs to get off this team for good!! I don't know what Pena you've been watching, but I've seen him hit 94-96 relatively consistently. I'm not sure what its been the past couple outings but I've seen numerous game with his velocity in the mid 90's. He also gets great sink, but the problem is he doesn't have good command of the "run" on the pitches. He has a lot to learn but stuff wise he's above average.

Hey Guys, just a message, make sure we stay on par here. In terms of fan support, I think some of us are being a little too harsh if we don't think playing in front of a packed crowd cheering for you doesn't have a positive effect on a guy. You can talk to plenty of guys and they'll tell you how much better the experience is playing in front of a full-house at your home stadium getting cheered, etc. But I don't think us as fans booing guys when they fail has an impact on the results. If they aren't getting the job done I don't fault anyone for booing them and it doesn't impact the resulst on the field (the key is that the fans are there and as a player you know if you do well and your playing in front of packed home houses, your going to get cheered). If we thought fans mattered, than the Yankees would be perennial losers since they have the harshest baseball fans out there (yes, you New York...and Philly fans can piss off cause there just moody pricks, Yank fans will boo there star players).

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 11:00 AM) Do you really have that little confidence in the kid? Furthermore, when do we stop preparing for the playoffs and start getting ready for next year? We're not very good. I'd rather give a kid the thrill of pitching in Yankee Stadium for his 1st start then see Torres getting his ass handed to him again. Well its already clear from his AAA stops that he still has some work to do in the minors so ya, I do think it would be a huge mistake and I don't have confidence in him kicking butt right now. Hudson has struggled at the highest minor league level with his command a bit and we are asking him to go face one of the best offensive teams in all of baseball (full of hitters with very good eyes) and put him into that. That is absolutely absurd. I don't care how strong and how poised someone is. It is the manager's job to put guys in a position to succeed and by starting Hudson you are doing nothing but putting him in a position to fail.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Aug 26, 2009 -> 08:37 PM) Hudson hasn't made an Major League start yet. Torres has and has proven that he is unable to throw strikes. I'll take the road less taken at this point. And you don't give a guy his debut at Yankee stadium in a playoff race. The Sox made that mistake with Neal Cotts and I sure as hell hope they don't do that again.

QUOTE (Hanky Panky @ Aug 26, 2009 -> 06:11 PM) I figured that, but his pal mentioned his "professional" debut. I may just be getting overly excited. Professionaly homecoming means the first time he's pitched professionally in his home-town (AAA would count as professional ball).

QUOTE (WCSox @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 10:13 AM) If the Sox are statistically eliminated, I'd limit him to bullpen sessions and would also shut down a couple of other starters. There's no point in fielding your best team after you've been eliminated. Hell, Peavy just took a line drive to his pitching elbow in a rehab start. Why subject highly-paid veterans to more injuries when you're no longer playing for anything? If he's healthy, let him pitch. If anything it will keep the rust off of him and let him begin to get acclimated to the American League. I don't believe in shutting guys down just because. If the ankle's healthy and Peavy's ready, he should be pitching.