Chisoxfn

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 12:26 PM) DOW to 8579.19 at today's close. Might it be time to shut down the markets for a little while? Shutting down the market would be a disaster. A s***load of big companies have went under or are teetering on going under. Even after the bailout many companies will be adjusting the way they do business in the future and it will have an impact on the types of margins they'll make. The reality is the market is adjusting to a more realistic pricing scheme (which is what the market is for). It's going to be a rough period but things are starting to straighten out and we'll see new companies excel in the future and many old companies reorganize and take back off again. However, it'll be a bit, but we'll also see the market priced at a more accurate PE ratio (especially once Q3 earnings get released cause those are going to be some ugly earnings given the OTTI companies will be taking). 12/31 will have some bad reports as well, but I believe that will be the end of the truly disasterous numbers for the financials. Doesn't mean the financials will sore any time soon but at that point we'll see a shift and the bad annuals will be the consumer business companies that will suffer from poor consumer confidence/holiday sales. After that you'll finally see everything revalued at an accurate point throughout the industry (tech is already priced right, imo) and the market will be back in the right spot. I'm guessing we are talking about a bottom around 7000.

QUOTE (mr_genius @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 01:49 PM) real estate prices will continue to drop if banks are not giving out loans. but it will be a cash buyers bonanza. huge profits could be made Real Estate still has room to drop. Financing is very tight and there is still too much bank owned stuff out there (REO's). We'll see another round of bank owned stuff and than the market will finally stabilize. Obviously certian markets vary but as a whole thats what people should expect, especially with it still so tough to get loans.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 01:40 PM) There are only two premises, which are tenable as to the future. Either we are going to have chaos or else recovery. The former theory is foolish. If chaos ensues nothing will maintain value, neither bonds nor stocks nor bank deposits nor gold will remain valuable. Real estate will be a worthless asset because titles will be insecure. No policy can be based upon this impossible contingency. Policy must therefore be predicated upon the theory of recovery. The present is not the first depression; it may be the worst, but just as surely as conditions have righted themselves in the past and have gradually been readjusted to normal so this will again occur. The only uncertainty is when it will occur. Dean Witter, May 6, 1932 I've seen some interesting independent pricing reports on Real Estate and they are talking about people who bought at the peak not making money for 20 years. They are also indicating another 20% drop in real estate (thats in the SoCal market). Pretty interesting stuff given a lot of people around here that are pretty intelligent seem to be thinking the real estate market is close to bottoming out (plenty of stuff has dropped 40-50%). But 80% of subprime loans are still getting paid and that number is bound to drop as more people get laid off and as home prices continue to fall. That will push another big round of foreclosures which will shoot things down again.

QUOTE (mr_genius @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 01:27 PM) the lower the market gets, the more people will panic and pull their money out. the public has lost faith in the stock market to an extent. not a good sign. Jim Cramer actually told investors to pull out enough money so that they could live for the next 5 years. Now obviously most people don't have that type of money laying around but there is a good chunk of investors that do and thats a pretty scary statement coming from a guy like Cramer.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 12:48 PM) The DOW has lost almost 25% of its value from September 9th. It might just get worse when people see the Q3 earnings announcements. People are talking about the PE ratios that are so low, but once those Q3 earnings come out those PE ratios won't look quite out of whack. I guarantee you there are s***loads of public companies s***ting there pants at what type of OTTI they will be taking at 9/30. Even with FASB making some changes to FAS 157 I don't see any real drastic measures which will help the market. Companies still have that alt a s*** priced way too high.

QUOTE (mr_genius @ Oct 7, 2008 -> 12:59 PM) anyone want to predict the low point the Dow will hit during this crash? 8,000? 7,000? 7000-7500 will be the bottom.

QUOTE (Cknolls @ Oct 2, 2008 -> 07:43 AM) For the past 9-12 months I have been harping on how bad the credit market is and I believe the elasticity of debt has finally snapped. The bailout proposition will not work. Next up, INSURANCE COs. Just look at AIG's insurance practice, they are a completely legit solid business. The Insurance Industry isn't even close to being a disaster. And let me just state that I say that based upon a s***load of knowledge of the insurance industry and the standards they have to abide by. Sure they insurance companies have taken part is some credit swaps and have plenty of Alt A investments. But they also have a s***load of regulations to ensure that the company has matched its funds to ensure that the assets pay out in a period where they'll be able to pay out the expected liabilities and on insurance type contracts those liabilities are pretty well set (you don't expect some massive fluctuation unless there is just a complete and utter run on "deaths"). Obviously Insurance companies do more than just Life insurance but the reality is all of there policies are based on a s***load of historical trends and than those payouts get matched with the assets on very conservative set-ups and this ensures you won't ever have another insurance collapse. Plus there are a lot of things which limit the types/risk of investments the company can have. If its a certain type of investment they may only be able to go up to a certain percentage of assets, etc. Trust me knolls, Insurance Companies aren't the next to blow up. I could see picking on people that did some shady stuff related to credit swaps but a typical insurance business is about as safe as it gets right now, although they obviously will have profitability issues in the short-term due to some of the investments they are in, but as those investments flux one way they'll likely see gains on there FAS 133 riders.

QUOTE (Tony82087 @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 08:28 PM) I didn't think it was terrible. I won't remember it in 2 weeks, but I laughed a few times. I think that sums it up pretty well Tony. It was decent...entertaining, but nothing special.

So Weeds is the next Showtime show in my BBOnline queue. I've heard good things. Can't wait till the next season of Californication hits DVD.

QUOTE (whitesoxbrian @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 02:32 PM) Brian Roberts? I don't know if the Sox have the prospects to land him. A package centered around Fields/Broadway and someone else just isn't as enticing as it would have been a year ago.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 03:25 PM) The problem with DeJesus is that he's just a so-so CFer (arm strength again)...he's essentially a corner outfielder playing CF. Traditionally, you need to have more pop from the corner/s, which is where they have Guillen and Teahen (who also lacks pop for RF/3B on a good team) playing the majority of time. He's a nice little player, but I don't think he's the answer either. And I highly doubt that Dayton Moore would make that move...certainly not for Anderson, they have a player with more potential (Gathright) but many of the same offensive woes, as well as nagging injury problems. DeJesus is the kind of player who will be quietly making about $8 million soon, and I'm not sure he's THAT good...I mean, I would rather keep Anderson and not pay DeJesus that much of a difference (like the discussion about Getz at minimum versus Hudson at $12 million). All things being equal, I would rather put $8 million in the starting rotation than David DeJesus over BA. I don't see why we have to anticipate a Vazquez trade, unless the Great Depression really is upon us, in which case the entire payroll would have to come down 25-30% to offset a loss of season ticket sales...it will be interesting if the Dow falls another 1-2,000 points, how that drop starts affecting revenues, payrolls, company promotions and season ticket sales, and which markets will be hardest hit. The irony is the economy going south really helps the Sox, because the Chicago area is more resilient I think than Detroit and Cleveland. I don't know if KW is having this thought, and maybe I'm reading too much into the downturn, but I think this will be an interesting area to monitor...cutbacks in sports promotion and advertising in general during times of austerity. Well, as Darth Vader/James Earl Jones said famously, "people will come." The Sox will trade Javy because he's a pussy. And they can be cheap all they want but they don't have s*** out there that can play CF and produce offensively and I'm sick and tired of seeing absolute s*** production in CF. They need to get an average hitter, yes, an actual guy that can hit for an average (novel concept I know) and they don't have anyone in house who can do that with the exception of Ramirez. Thats why DeJesus makes a ton of sense. I'd give up Poreda for DeJesus. He's perfectly fine in CF too, imo.

Californication is good. I'm watching season 1 on the dvds right now and I'm digging it.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Oct 8, 2008 -> 06:48 PM) The English is fine if you just get rid of the question mark. "Two scouts with American League organizations independently arrived at the same conclusion about Iglesias, an 18-year-old middle infielder. Both compared him to Orlando Cabrera for his batting stance, infield actions and offensive potential. "He’s a stud," one of the scouts said. "He’s a plus run and plus arm Orlando Cabrera clone. He’s got a quick bat but I didn’t see much power." I like the sound of that. Sign him...Sign him...Sign him. Put him with Beckham and you could have a nice SS/2B combo with Beckham at 2B.

I guarantee Poreda is still being thought of as a starter first. Sure they know that they could always convert him into a top notch set up prospect but they will try there best to turn him into a big time starter. If he has just two average secondary pitches he has the fastball to be an above average starter.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 02:35 PM) DeJesus gets thrown around a lot but I don't think the Royals are going to be selling pieces away any time quickly without getting MLB pieces that are close to the majors. DeJesus has to be part of the rebuilding. I also don't like that he's as injury prone as he is. Like him as a player, I just don't think he's a realistic option. He's the exact type of guy the club needs. High average, high OBP, solid speed. The Sox don't have another guy out there like him. He fits into the "Twins" mold and I'm not about to say we should turn our team into the Twins but there is a major benefit to having a few guys throughout the lineup that can hit for a high average. That high average hitter should be able to hit even the best pitchers and its easier to get a single or basehit off a good pticher than it is a HR so you are increasing your chance at getting that one run across in a "key" situation. I'd love to find a way to get a CF/2B who both could hit around .300 with a .360 OBP and play decent defense. You do that and stick whoever the f*** at 3B and go with Ramirez at SS and I'm loving the lineup. You got enough power between Dye/Thome/Konerko/Quentin. You are right about DeJesus being a potential franchise guy. He's signed to an affordable extension but the Royals could get a bigger "face" in Swisher plus some prospects (maybe Broadway & Anderson or whomever). I just wouldn't give up Poreda or Shelby. I'd even trade Josh FIelds but they would clearly have little use for Fields. Swisher is also very affordable so its not like the Royals would have trouble fitting him into payroll.

QUOTE (Sonik22 @ Oct 8, 2008 -> 06:25 PM) I was best friends with her before i got the feelings for her. So yeah... Well I don't know how much this fits, but the girl I'm currently dating was one of my very good friends (also a coworker). When she left the job we kind of moved things to a new level (I actually broke up with my current girlfriend at the time to go after this girl). We've made a promise that no matter what if things go sour we'll stay friends. I've said that crap before but I can safely say it won't ruin the friendship. I've also had a best friend in high school that I went out with in college and we decided it wasn't right (partly because we were in two different places) but I'm still very good friends with her today so it can be done. Plus it leaves the option open to potentially hook-up if you find yourself single. The hard part for you would be to realize that despite you having feelings for her, nothing can happen. As long as your willing to put that past because your actual friendship is better (and again, you were best friends prior to ever having feelings so it sounds like a legit friendship) than really you shouldn't have any problems. Do your thing, sleep with who you please, and she'll do hers, you two can still be best friends as long as your mature about it.

I would love to package Swisher and a prospect for David DeJesus. Heck, maybe even offer up Brian Anderson in the package. DeJesus would be a perfect fit in the 2 spot and would allow the Sox to focus the rest of the off-season finding a 3B/2Bman. DeJesus hits for an average and is well liked, but Swisher still can hit for power and is a guy that I'm sure the fan base would rally around in KC. Again, I don't know if the Royals do that deal but DeJesus would be one of my top priorities if I were Kenny. Kenny could than decide what to do with Josh Fields. Personally I'd target a young 3rd baseman and than consider going with Alexei and DeJesus a top the order with Getz and a young 3rd baseman (Not FIELDS though) rounding things out. IT would be a cheap off-season and Kenny could potentially find a way to pick up another reliever and than obviously the club would have to find another starter as I'd anticipate the trade of Javy Vazquez.

I want to point out that Ichiro is probably one of the most overpaid players in the game. Sure he's solid but given everything, including the cost factor to get him (ie players given up) there is absolutely no way the Sox could acquire Ichiro. I wouldn't trade Danks straight up for Ichiro and it would cost the Sox a lot more than that just to get him. If you want to get a CFer, focus on David DeJesus. He'd be a really nice pick-up and you might even be able to trade Swisher straight up for him or get a 3rd team involved.

Right now if I were a GM of another team, I'd freaking drool at the chance to buy Paulie low. The guy is an above average first baseman with a great contract. He showed that when healthy he is as productive as ever and he's been a very good post-season player (this post-season included). The guy was huge for the Sox down the stretch this year and I don't think I'd trade him without getting very good value. Thome would be a guy I'd consider moving, but he's just too cheap so really the only spots you can upgrade are 2B/3B/CF and the Sox may go in-house at one of those spots and need to move Swish to free up another one of those spots.

QUOTE (Sonik22 @ Oct 8, 2008 -> 03:05 PM) Lol thats why I put this stuff on soxtalk, because i know I'm gonna get good responses. I can't just ditch out on her, because we were best friends before all of this stuff happened. I've already got over the fact that I'm not that main guy anymore, it sucks, but w/e. I still want her in my life, but I'm not going out of my way for her anymore. I love everything you guys said. Neither of you are seeing each other nor would seeing each other really work given your circumstance. Plus, you both are new to college, its a great time to experience new things. She's not going to marry this guy just like you aren't going to marry whatever girl you hook up with next. The important part is that the two of you remember your friends. I'd say forget the chick but its pretty evident the two of you were really good friends in high school. I'm still friends with some girls I was really tight with in high school as well as my guy buddies. I even had a short lived fling with one of those girls in college where we tried the whole "more than friends thing". Bottom line you were friends with her before and you'll be friends with her down the road. It doesn't mean you have to like her boyfriend or even talk about him, just continue to do what you normally would do. Now my stance changes if the only reason you've ever been friends with her is to get with her. In that case I'd ditch the chick completely.

QUOTE (chimpy2121 @ Oct 8, 2008 -> 03:13 PM) I traded in my Xbox 360 for a PS3 back in June and I am completely satisfied with my choice. I love the Show, I love PSN, I can't wait for LBP, and I can't wait for Home. Oh, and Blu-Rays kick arse. If we are talking about the BluRay and the total package...PS3 > Xbox. Again, I was saying simply as a gaming console the Xbox is better but when you factor in everything else the PS3 is a pretty sweet system (I know I love my BluRay). I just don't play hardly any games on it.

I probably have b****ed and moaned about Swisher's play more than anyone on this site. I could give a s*** about anyone who hits for that type of average (unless he hit about 100 HR's). The problem is his value is at an all time low and he is a pretty versatile player who is better than his current performance and has a favorable contract. Sure the Sox could trade him but I don't know if they get anything of value for him and if thats the case is it really worth dealing him? I believe the Sox need to get themselves one or two high average hitters (hopefully high OBP as well, but the key is to get some high average guys with speed). This will give the team some guys who can just get the big hit as opposed to the big homer in those games where you can't rely on the homer and just need to dig in a run in a key situation.

We've toyed with that concept before, but our goal is to create many unique sites with there own specific personalities. TalkBears is differnet than Soxtalk. Obviously Soxtalk is larger but TalkBears has a pretty good group of posters and is active but those members give TalkBears its own unique feel. We hope the Bulls/Cubs/Blackhawks sites will also do the same. Oh and don't forget, www.chisport.com the best blog on the net.

You've got to see a couple of the Sox affiliates, tell us about the differences at the various levels (ie, coaching/fans/city/equipment).

I'd have hated it as a kid but its a tremendous idea.