HuskyCaucasian

Bill Clinton: Obama "Played The Race Card On Me" “I think that they played the race card on me. We now know, from memos from the campaign that they planned to do it along.” Can he back up that statement about the memos? Or is this another Sniper Fire story?

QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 08:13 AM) What have you guys heard about the margin Clinton needs to realistically have any hypothetical chance? Here is the breakdown via Chuck Todd of MSNBC and something I thought before i heard it this morning... Obama wins: Clinton out by the end of the week Clinton by 1-5%: Similar to above, but Clinton can fight on in the face of calls for her to get out Clinton by 6-10%: Fight lives on until at least NC/IN in 2 weeks Clinton by 11-15%: Things get interesting, but odds are still against her Clinton by 16+%: She's in the fight all the way with a real chance to win, but still unlikely

Five things to watch in Pennsylvania Check for turnout at 1 p.m. By this point Tuesday, the campaigns should have a good sense of what kind of outcome to expect. They will look first to Philadelphia, where a crush of voters early in the day will bode well for Obama and badly for Clinton since it will signal that he could win the big margin he needs to take out of the city. Don’t be fooled by early results. The cities and suburbs usually report their returns first, which gives the candidate favored in those areas a quick – and sometimes fleeting – lead. The conservative-leaning small towns through the center of the state usually filter in much later in the evening. Follow the undecideds. For weeks, the campaigns have been trying to convince a stubborn group of undecided voters – an average of nine percent in polls released Monday – to make up their minds. Voters who decide late usually go with the candidate who represents something new, potentially giving the edge to Obama. But in this Democratic primary season, voters who have decided in the last three days have more often broken in Clinton’s favor. Watch these towns and neighborhoods. While the campaigns are reluctant to disclose the places they will be looking at, here are some key precincts, wards and towns that unaffiliated Pennsylvania political strategists say they will be monitoring. The best indicator of the level of Obama support among younger voters—a group pollsters worry may not have been captured in recent surveys—will be turnout in places like State College, home to Penn State University’s main campus, or the precincts around smaller schools like Muhlenberg College in Allentown. Key counties to keep an eye on. In order for Clinton to win a decisive victory of 10 points or more, she needs to win two-thirds of the votes in a group of eight industrial-oriented counties, each of which has 55,000 or more registered Democrats. Those counties are Lackawanna (Scranton) and Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre) in the Northeast, Erie in the Northwest, Cambria County (Johnstown), and the Pittsburgh-area counties of Westmoreland, Fayette, Beaver, and Washington. In south central Pennsylvania, which got lots of attention from both candidates, Lancaster and Adams counties will provide a glimpse into Obama’s popularity with newly-registered Democrats. Though these areas have traditionally elected Republicans, they’ve experienced significant growth as affluent residents have moved in from Baltimore, D.C. and southeastern Pennsylvania.

QUOTE (Texsox @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 08:10 AM) Sometimes there are no human solutions to a problem. I've argued this for a long time. not only there, but in Iraq. you cant just sit down people who have been waring for hundreds of years and solve it. Ironically, the longest peace Iraq had for a long period of time was under a dictator!

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 07:39 AM) I saw where Hillary linked Obama to Osama in a campaign commercial apparently? That's inaccurate. She used Osama in her closing ad in Penn. She also showed WW2, Pearl Harbor and the stock market crash. It was basically, elect me or you all may die.

On February 7, an Obama campaign internal spreadsheet was leaked to the media. It showed the campaigns INTERNAL projections of how the primaries would turn out. Their projections started on Super Tuesday (Feb 5th) and ran all the way through the end of the primary season. It is UNCANNY in its accuracy and actually UNDER projected some Obama victories. What is uncanny is their Oho and Texas projections way back in early February. They projected a 53-46 loss in Ohio… they lost 54-44. They projected a 51-47 loss in Texas… they lost 51-47. In Penn, they projected a 52-47 loss. I am projecting a 52-46 loss. It might be 51-47 IF the youth vote is massive.

Should be an interesting day.

Thanks to Politico.com for this map. According to the map, there are 143,409 NEW registered/switchers to the democratic party in and around Philly. In this area, Obama is pulling 55% of the vote according to Survey USA and 58% according to Public Policy Polling. It's hard to tell how these new voters are factored into the polls if at all. BUT, high voter turnout in an Obama area could help "blunt" a loss. Might take a 6-7 point loss and make it 4-5. Just a thought.

How is this not news across the country? Clinton on Iran Attack: 'Obliterate Them'

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Apr 21, 2008 -> 10:44 AM) Vote for Clinton... or we will all die!!! That was Clinton's closing message. Now Obama's...

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 21, 2008 -> 03:41 PM) I would recommend this post over @ the great orange Satan's site if you want to try to get a better understanding of how the internals of these polls are breaking down to give each of these sets of results. It's not just the total number, it's the total number from each demographic balanced against the others that matters. Thank you for that. Very interesting numbers and a VERY smart analyst over at DailyKos. This is also a good breakdown: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/2.../172/269/500113

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 21, 2008 -> 12:18 PM) Here's the actual SUSA poll data. Whatever I posted last night seems to have just been wrong. 50-44. That's a decent drop for Clinton, and I'd be more than happy with a 6 point loss. I still think it's going to be a bigger C win. I just took a closer look at the Public Policy Polling numbers that came out today that have Obama +3 in PA. They surveyed 2300+ voters in a RoboCall. In TX, OH, and WI their survey compared to the actual results was within the margin of error. Take into consideration that this survey is TWICE the size of the second largest poll and nearly 3.5 times the average sample size, the numbers are very interesting. The part I like about the poll is that they pressed undecideds to make a choice. Basically, if they answered undecided, they were asked who they were leaning towards. In the end only 5% were truly undecided.

WOW! just saw a anit-McCain ad on CNN. It's something to do with pork money going to polluting companies. It wasnt done by the democrats or Obama. Not sure who did it. I'll get a link as soon as I see one. Here it is:

What does Clinton have up hear sleeve? Kiki McClean (god she is just as slimy has hillary) was just on MSNBC and was asked if there was anything between now and tomorrow that might cause undecided voters or even Obama voters swing to Clinton. She said it could happen when spouses sit round the dinner table this evening talking about who to vote for or..... tomorrow morning when they are in their car and they hear something they have never heard before. hmmm...

QUOTE (southsidehawkeye @ Apr 21, 2008 -> 01:52 PM) The DNC has released their first 2008 commercial, its called "Better Off" What do you guys think? I like it. He frames it as "some would say". Well, you dont say "some would say" then rattle off all the "points" that prove all is well if you dont think it is!

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 21, 2008 -> 01:37 PM) According to the Energy Information Agency, the average gas price per gallon on April 14th for the U.S., Regular conventional gasoline, was $3.35. The Average price on January 22, 2001 was $1.45. So it has not fully tripled. It has only gone up by a factor of 2.3 over that time. and the price of oil has gone from $30-40 to nearly $120

should we create a Penn Primary Thread?

CLINTON INTERNALS SHOW 11-POINT LEAD IN PA

Talk about a quick rebound...

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 21, 2008 -> 11:57 AM) This has been the offer that's been put on the table for years now, every few months it seems, by one of the Arabic-side parties. What you must realize is...this offer will NEVER be accepted by Israel, for one simple reason. The pre 1967 war borders of Israel did not include key parts of Jerusalem. They did not include the wall, the temple mount, etc., the holiest of holy sites. Israel simply will NEVER give those sites back to a Muslim authority. The 2000 Clinton/Arafat/Barak proposal for all practical purposes was the best offer Israel will ever make. Aside from a few various slivers of land, it was all the pre 1967 land except for the key spots in Jerusalem. Unless you can propose an independent governing body for Jerusalem that would satisfy both sides, you will not get a better offer of land for peace than the deal Arafat turned down. thanks for the history lesson. I havent been up-to-date on middle east peace since... well... ever. lol

ummmm..... Hamas offers truce in return for 1967 borders

Vote for Clinton... or we will all die!!!

Rasmussen... 04/20 - 04/20... 722 LV... Clinton +5.0 Zogby Tracking...04/19 - 04/20... 602 LV... Clinton +6.0 Suffolk... 04/19 - 04/20... 600 LV... Clinton +10.0 PPP (D)... 04/19 - 04/20... 2338 LV...Obama +3.0 Strategic Vision ®... 04/18 - 04/20... LV... Clinton +7.0 Quinnipiac... 04/18 - 04/20...1027 LV... Clinton +7.0 SurveyUSA... 04/18 - 04/20... LV... Clinton +6.0 Interesting that the poll with the most surveyed voters has Obama +3! i dont think that is really true given the other polls, but interesting none the less. Of note is the SurveyUSA poll with Clinton only +6.

Remember, Bush said he looked into Putins eyes and saw his soul and he liked it.

QUOTE (Alpha Dog @ Apr 20, 2008 -> 04:58 PM) His opening line in just what you posted "I think you could make an argument...". Then with a little editing at the end, "I think we are better off overall", which obviously was spoken at a different point, and possible to a different question. When some says "you can make an argument" then rattles off a list of things to support it, they are making the argument that you believe that. Why would you rattle off facts that support something you dont think is the case? And facts that are WRONG! Inflation and Job Creation be two. On your second point, can you prove it was "obviously" a different point? I can prove it was in context. I am willing to concied that there is a POSSIBILITY we were better in 2004 or 2005 than we were in 2000. however, in 2008, we are worse than we were in 2000 on a total economic level due to lax economic polices and an ongoing war that has tripled the price of gas.. THerefore, we are not "better off overall if you look at the entire eight-year period"