Jordan4life_2007

QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 17, 2009 -> 09:48 PM) Couple of things: - Did Houston play on IRod playing in Texas tonight for his record breaking game? If so, that's pretty cool - Check out David Wright's performance against LHP this season. Small sample size. But god damn!

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Jun 17, 2009 -> 11:04 PM) Usually? The 08 Phillies and 07 Rockies were really hot towards their push in september (with split WS results), The 2005 Astros were hot, The 2005 White Sox were finally hot in their last 10 games. but for as many examples for, I can find as many against recently, just scratching the surface, so I don't really know about "usually": The 2008 Rays went 13-13 in September. The 2007 Red Sox went 6-7 in their last 13. The 2006 Tigers went 12-16 in September, including 0-5 in their last 5 regular season games. The 2006 Cardinals, for all their recent fanfare from fans of mediocre teams everywhere, went 4-10 in their last 14, and nearly had the biggest choke in the history of divisional play going into the playoffs. They were actually a pretty damned GOOD team for most of the second half until the last half of september. Regardless of who's hot this IS most likely going to be the division that produces the worst record. Dude, you make fathom look like Hawk when it comes to the Soxtalk king of neverending pessimism.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Jun 17, 2009 -> 10:12 PM) I don't disagree with anything you've said here. Basically, your argument is that a .400 batting average is fluky high, it takes a combination of skill and luck to have an average that high, and it is so far above his career norms that it's a near certainty that he'll eventually regress to it. My argument is that I don't need to see BABIP to tell me that. When you see someone hitting 70, 80 points higher than they ever have before, you just kind of know all those factors come into play intuitively. BABIP is a really unnecessarily fancy way of telling me something I already know. I guess you're right. I just thought it was too easy to simply say "no, he's been getting lucky" or "no, .400 is next to impossible."

QUOTE (DukeNukeEm @ Jun 17, 2009 -> 07:27 AM) Ouch. LOL. Cmon now. That wasn't a shot at this board. I did say "baseball" message board. This is Soxtalk (I know. Great insight there). Most of the baseball talk here is going to be White Sox related, obviously. Just like with any team message board. I've been looking for the baseball equivalent to realgm for basketball. Those types of boards are hard to find.

This was John's best performance since #163. I'm still not sold on Jose yet. But it's really nice when you feel your team has a considerably better than 50% chance of winning when 3 of your 5 starters take the mound.

And Matt Wieters goes yard.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Jun 17, 2009 -> 03:02 PM) I understand what you're saying here, but it's circular logic. As another poster said, saying a high batting average won't be sustained because he has a high BABIP is like saying he won't sustain his high batting average because he has a high batting average. It's a useful sabermetric tool to see red flags in pitchers, but for hitters, it tells me absolutely nothing useful. A hit that is not a home run is, by definition, a ball in play, so of course a player with a high batting average will also have a high BABIP. If you have a low BABIP it's because the contact you make isn't adequate to get a successful hit, meaning you have a low batting average, meaning you're not that good. I guess I could summarize it by asking this: are the balls that Brian Anderson puts into play comparable to the ones Ichiro puts into play? Lately, Nick Swisher is cited as an example of what BABIP can show you for a hitter (bad luck, abnormally low batting average as a result). I don't need BABIP to tell me that, though. You could tell he had a "down year" just looking at his batting average. His BABIP was lower because... he wasn't doing anything when he made contact. The BABIP and batting average for him pretty much follows the same pattern. Nothing special. Swisher's BABIP is usually ~30 points over his average, Mauer's, around 20 give or take a few points. Well, of course, the easy/lazy response when saying Mauer won't hit .400 is to simply say that he won't do it because .400 has proven to be pretty much impossible. And end it right there. Just as the easy/lazy response to say he can do it is to simply say "Yeah, I think he's that good." And end it right there. I choose to look a little deeper. Now I agree that BABIP is more useful for pitchers than hitters. But it doesn't take a genius to see that a guy hitting .429 is pretty abnormal. And that he's obviously doing something that's gone above and beyond what he's normally done in his career. Now I don't care who you are. When over 4 of very 10 balls you put into play are falling in for hits, that's not all skill. There's a certain amount of fluke/luck that comes into play (bloop hits, defensive positioning, ect). Even Jim Thome has a few hits this year that came simply because of the shift that just about every team uses with him. If you look at Joe's BB%, K%, GB/FB ratios and LD% for this year, they all fall in line with what he's done for his career. Outside of his HR rates, which are wayyyy above and beyond his career rates, all his numbers are similar to his career numbers. So how does one explain the .429 BA? Other than BABIP, you really can't. It's almost 100 points higher than his career total. That's just abnormal. No way around it. Even in 2006, when his BABIP was .370, he topped out BA wise at I believe .350. History says the chances of sustaining that number over the course of a season are astronomical. But the bottomline is that Joe has played in only 42 games this season. That's just not enough of a sample size to determine if he really has a legitimate chance at .400. If he's anywhere near .400 on August 1st, this topic will get A LOT more interesting.

QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Jun 17, 2009 -> 11:37 AM) People keeping justifying their "no" answers due to his BABIP being so high. Well, if you're gonna hit .400 wouldn't you think you're BABIP would be that high? And like I just said to Jorge, my answer is still a resounding no because his BABIP, which is now an unheard of .443 after last night's game, will not remain anywhere near that high for the remainder of the season. Another pretty obvious reason he won't do it is because he doesn't make things happen with his legs. His infield hit % is 3.2 (for his career it's 3.5). The reason a guy like Ichiro would be a better candidate is because he consistently turns outs into hits because of his speed. His IFH% is 14.7 (12.4 for his career).

QUOTE (JorgeFabregas @ Jun 17, 2009 -> 10:04 AM) You do realize that, by definition, a hitter must have a BABIP over .400 in order to average .400 on the season, right? That his BABIP is high goes without saying. It's like saying "No way his batting average will stay that high--because obviously his batting average is too high." Um, yeah, I do realize that. Which is why I said that there's no chance he'll do it. The question posed by HM was will he do it for the rest of the season. Not for the rest of the week. There's no way that holds up. Thus his average will go down considerably. I say he'll end up around .350.

QUOTE (T R U @ Jun 17, 2009 -> 08:56 AM) 30 days in jail ...AND 2 years of house arrest ...AND 8 years of probation ...AND reached a settlement with the family of the dude he iced Lets not just act like hes in county for 30 days then back to the football field.. and I just read the CBSSportsline article on this and he got some strange plea deal for cooperating with investigators and because the family of that man just wanted it to be over with.. weird Didn't he get a lifetime drivers license suspension as well?

QUOTE (High Mileage @ Jun 17, 2009 -> 01:51 AM) I think the important thing to remember when looking at his career numbers, is that he's 25. I'm confident in saying that he's not even close to hitting his professional peak, and that's just plain scary... The power surge is what's shocked me. Not so much the average. He won't keep up his current HR pace. I agree that he probably hasn't peaked yet.

QUOTE (soxfan3530 @ Jun 16, 2009 -> 11:38 AM) The only way you take on Zito is if Lincecum is coming along with him. End of thread/ I'd settle for Cain.

QUOTE (High Mileage @ Jun 17, 2009 -> 12:00 AM) Only 25, already has two batting titles, and he is a career .324 hitter. Hitting .429 as of June 16. Not a chance. His BABIP is .424. There's just no way that's going to hold over the course of a season (or in Mauer's case, 5 months). .350 is much more realistic.

QUOTE (Moneyman @ Jun 16, 2009 -> 11:19 PM) What's up? I'm new to Sox-Talk. I help run The Batters Eye (New advertising deal here) and I love talking baseball no matter who the team is. I look foreward to sharing my thoughts on the White Sox and the rest of baseball on here. My main team is the Brewers. We have gone through several rough patches 3-4 years ago, but are finally playing great baseball which is great for the city of Milwaukee. If you have any questions please ask, otherwise, I'll see you guys around. Welcome to the board! Your site is really nice. I've been looking for an active hardcore baseball message board for a while. It's amazing how hard they are to find.

At the risk of sounding somewhat queer, Mitchell is one really well put-together dude. His build kinda reminds me of Ron Gant.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Jun 14, 2009 -> 12:03 PM) Willy Taveras is in a career worst 0-32 slump. Not exactly what you want from a leadoff man. http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/articl...sp&c_id=cin Jay Bruce has been even worse (if that's possible). That Reds offense has been such a huge disappointment. They'd be a real contender with their very fine pitching staff if their offense wasn't so inept.

QUOTE (rangercal @ Jun 15, 2009 -> 03:06 PM) If we had our best hitter in the lineup and still played like this, I would agree with you. We have a shot at the playoffs despite playing like horses*** for 2 months. You need to make that playoff run ESPECIALLY with a dominant Contreras. You make the playoffs and anything can happen, you ride the back of horse like Contreras at his best and your odds just increased that much more. Dominant Contreras= unlikely to be matched by anyone's ace. I'm not suggesting he will take that 05/06 form, just saying any extended signs of CY Contreras should go towards a run not a fire sale. Pick up someone up with speed and an ops of >.750 and that could plug a hole in CF or 2b quite nicely, even SS as Lexi can go back to 2b. I still have confidence in a lineup of Podsednik Getz/Beckham TCQ Thome JD Konerko Lexi AJ Fields And a rotation of Cy Contreras Buehrle Danks Floyd Richard Poreda Carrasco Dotel Thornton Linebrink Jenks If Contreras does blowup or get injured than it would be hard to argue a fire-sale. You just can't do it if he ACES it out the rest of the way. 1. weak division 2. TCQ would make a huge difference 3. Team full of Vets that we would only get .50 on the dollar anyway. With an ace you make a run. I'm not joking when I say this. But this post got me a little bit excited. Not sure how much I believe that any of it can realistically happen. I will agree that a dominant Jose Contreras changes the entire complexion of the division.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 15, 2009 -> 05:16 PM) Getting Zito would be a great idea. I also think the Sox should use all of the money that is coming off the books this next offseason to sign Carl Pavano to a 6 or 7 year contract at about $18 million a year. Maybe trade Flowers and Allen for Dontrelle Willis. That would be a pitching staff. You could probably get Big Papi for a song right now. Bring him in. That's a pretty good staff if it's June 15, 2004.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jun 15, 2009 -> 03:40 AM) Every single team in the AL Central has a shot at winning the division still. The Sox just had a 4-8 homestand, won 2 of 3 against Milwaukee, and they are only 4.5 out. Cleveland has been absolutely devastated by injuries so far, and they are 6 out. It's anybody's race still. I wouldn't go that far. The Royals have a putrid offense. I know statistically ours isn't much better. But I think we've underachieved to this point (although we have no problem scoring runs on the road). The Indians have zero starting pitching outside of Cliff Lee (who after a pretty bad initial 3 starts has been one of the best pitchers in baseball). Pavano had been pitching well before getting torched for 9 ER in his last start. Besides that? You're not winning anything with Sowers, Huff, Ohka and the other trash they have in their rotation. The division race should pretty much come down to the Tigers and Twins. With the Sox being the x-factor, I guess. If this is the real Jose Contreras, and when I say that I don't mean the guy that's thrown 16 consecutive scoreless innings, but if he can be at least 80% of what he was in '05 and the first half of '06, then that really changes the complexion of this division race. Then you're talking a 4-man rotation as good or better than that of the Tigers/Twins. Then it would come down to getting a healthy CQ back (something I'm not counting on) and this offense to start performing up to their capabilities.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Jun 13, 2009 -> 03:47 PM) Tell me about it. I have very vivid memories of being at the Cell for game 2 and chanting "Paulie, Paulie, Paulie" for nearly two and a half innings after his slam. It's not even that. He's just an awesome f***ing dude. And he's been with us for so long that you naturally get attached to him. It's like you know him or something. Hard to explain.

This team just drives me f***in' crazy. Why can't we do this more consistently? We've got the horses.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Jun 13, 2009 -> 03:44 PM) I hope if we trade Paulie we put him in a position to win another championship. He deserves it. I'll literally cry if we trade Konerko. Not that I would be against it under the right circumstances. But he and Buehrle are like family to me (I know. That's pathetic).

QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 13, 2009 -> 03:37 PM) Not only is it great for Beckham to get some productivity into his stat line, but as a Cubs hater, hopefully this will convince Milwaukee to acquire another starting pitcher. Yeah, no way they stay in first all season with their current rotation setup. They've definitely got pieces in their farm to make a deal if they choose.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Jun 13, 2009 -> 03:33 PM) Is that Beckham's first RBIs? Yup.

QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Jun 13, 2009 -> 03:32 PM) For those not watching it was a blooper that was purely muscled out there. We'll take it. You god damn right will take it. I'm so f***in' happy for Beckham right there. He really needed that.