We've only played 21 games. That is roughly 1/8 of games to be played. 4 HR times 8 is 32 HR, and not 25. Plus, he just missed 3 games against the Yankees, so he has played 18 games, which is 1/9 of games to be played. He has homered once per 13 to 14 at bats thus far. Multiply that times 500 ABs and you have roughly 38 HR.
Once again, people think that April is over, and therefore, we're 1/6 of the way through. Remember, we're not Cubs fans. This is inexcusable.