BamaDoc

As I sit and think about pitching options and I am still in favor of no qualifying offers, losing my target of Odorizzi hurts. It looks like we keep Kopech down to manage innings(regain year also). Gio, Lopez, Cease are in. So two likely additions. I advocated that in my originating this thread post with the second being a swing guy or tradeable as other guys get healthy. What is clear is they need to be healthy at the start of the season which is why I don't advocate guys like Wood or other injury question marks. I think we want healthyish, possibly left handed, cheapish, good clubhouse, short term deal etc. By midseason, this guy can go to the pen as Kopech, Rodon, Dunning or others return. He could come back if injuries or innings limits are reached. IE this guy kinda looks like a better Santiago. I worry re homer prone though his numbers aren't bad and early in the year with cold weather the ball isn't jumping. In fact his numbers of less than one hr per nine is way better than almost anyone on our team not named Bummer. For cheap what about the unexciting but actually fairly competent #5/swing man Gio Gonzalez. You are not going to sign a really good player if you are competing with other clubs and that is their role. Last year he signed for two million and provided 1.7 WAR.

With Colome at around 10 million and Herrera at 8, I am not sure we go beyond a 3-5 million reliever.

Joc problem is about a .500 OPS vs lhp

I was intrigued but not after digging. His average fastball velocity has been dropping each year. Formerly around 93 now 89.9! That doesn't work for many people. His walk rate is rising so it appears he is nibbling with lesser stuff. Unless something is seen mechanically where you think you get velocity back, I would avoid.

I recall reading somewhere Boras had a multiyear offer he thought Keuchel should take. Keuchel refused it as it wasn't enough money and it seems he burned himself.

The worst that happens is he takes the QO, has a monster year and because he no longer has a QO attached and was pissed , he leaves. I'll take a monster year.

I am worried this year was start of decline. I actually would like to see if his trend continues

JDM does not opt out! Good Go get Grandal

I realize it is a old school stat but do you expect a guy who leads the league in RBI to take a pay cut? I would very much take the 2/28 as the team but I predict we will be unhappy numerically. Afraid of 2/38-40 with an option

It is interesting that on Wheeler you are paying premium dollars on future projection. Usually in free agency guys are getting money for past performance. He will be a test case for the analytic evolution applied to free agency.

He very well could be hoping Red Sox sweeten the deal by perhaps dropping injury penalties if nothing else or adding a year or maybe money

Interesting his #1 is also Grandal.

Cali, along the same lines, do you expect Milwaukee to lose both Grandal and Moustakas? Obviously, Grandal is my number one target back on page one but you make a compelling argument for Moose. I think it may be hard to sell him on a multi positional role when some teams can offer full time work at one position. If Texas doesn't get Rendon, I could see him there.

Thanks for finding all the info on Dickerson. Definitely interesting. Three different injuries last year with the season ending one being his foot. Obviously that would really have to be checked out. The Red Sox put all kind of contract parameters around JDM previous injury. Dickerson will be a really interesting contract. He could take a one year gamble contract but everybody looking for a non qualifying offer corner outfielder will be looking at him. I could see him getting a solid multi year deal just as easily. If his foot checks out you have definitely made me want to kick the tires. At 31 next year and injury history, I bet he takes the multi year deal.

Completely agree. You could have signed a team of 100k guys for what we gave up in the Jones and Castillo deals. I can understand if they feel spreading the money around on multiple players vs one high dollar player is their philosophy but a philosophy of none is not good. This is compounded if you sign free agents who require giving up draft picks. Maybe one 1.25 million dollar bonus guy would help offset losing a second or third round draft pick but having neither will show up in a farm system in a couple years.

I could see Fulmer in a change of scenery trade ala Thornton years ago. A worse team may be willing to give him more time. I am trying to think if getting him thru waivers would be easier now than at end of spring. He has talent and pedigree so I expect someone would take a chance so maybe he has some value.

If you get Grandal, Gardner could hit 6-8 in my eyes but what the heck in the playoffs for the Yankees he hit three so I don't think he lack value.

Josh Reddick, Jay Bruce, Calhoun could all be acquired cheaply and also fit that one year place holder position. I prefer Gardner. I actually don't give up Bummer for one year. With the three batter rule, a lefty without splits should have a lot of value.

Lillian, you realize Calhouns OPS vs LHP is over .225 better than Pedersen. If you sign Grandal, he makes sense as a primary catcher, part time DH/1b and can hit middle of the order. Grandal would allow your RF addition to bat lower thus not requiring as much offense(gloves matter). I totally agree with you that I want a LH RF addition. You weren't around when I started this post but read my original post. Gardner makes a lot of sense to me.

So far everyone is pretty much right on target with the cuts. Probably more interesting when we see the additions.

I offer 3-60 with option for fourth. 24-20-16 and 16 option. The payment structures gives us an advantage over teams near cap and drops salary when we have to start paying our own.

Interesting. He was a guy I mentioned as being effected by three batter rule as he has terrible splits. RH batters crush him. Maybe the AL east has lots of lefties.

Completely agree Yolmer's value is being above average defensively and is a below league average bat. I am not sure what you are saying that comparing by WAR is crazy. WAR is supposed to be a comprehensive way of evaluating all parts of a player's game and allowing comparisons even between different positions. I do not understand the exact calculations of WAR and how they differ between sites. I would love for a more analytical person to explain the differences in calculations. Ozuna by OPS+ was 6% and 7% above league average with the bat. His defense has been considered negative. When I see a guy with a little above average bat and poor defense it makes me think of a ok guy not necessarily a difference maker. Would he be an improvement over what we put out there, yes but so would a bunch of people. It is why I prefer Grandal as an addition as he has been about 20% above league average offensively and fits better. I agree with futureisnear that Yolmer's deficiencies with the bat are enough that I wouldn't want to start him but use him in a utility role. I had only brought him up because by bref WAR he was valued similar to Ozuna. Sorry if that confused things.

Perhaps we are looking at different sets of numbers? I was using baseball reference WAR values . In the last five years going oldest to most recent Yolmer had values of .8, -.1, 3.5, 2.6,2.1 Ozuna .5, 2.6, 6.1 great no argument!, 2.9, 2.2. So by these stats , Yolmers best year beats Ozuna 4 out of 5 years(your pick) . Not debating if Ozuna is decent which I think he is , he is just not a great fit and not a difference maker in my opinion. In the last two years, which I think has some relevance as post Miami for Ozuna, the WAR is 4.7 Yolmer to 5.1 for Ozuna.

I really don't see the love for Ozuna. Bad glove, right handed, one good year three years ago. The last two years have been slightly higher WAR than Yolmer who most don't want to keep at 6 million let alone 16plus. I consider Cole and Stras top of the rotation starters and would gladly sign them up at market rate. Most the others you either hope they improve or have injury/age issues that I don't consider them TOR starters. My plan calls for an innings eater and a second either swing guy or guy who could be moved at deadline depending on the health/performance of our starters. I think our best bet for a top starter is that one develops from within. Most the other FA, I see as 3s on our staff. 2 of Gio, Cease, or Kopech need to be 2 quality or we are in trouble anyway. (for definition clarification, just because a guy is a #1 on a bad staff doesn't make him a #1. I think there are less than 30 #1 pitchers in baseball. I do believe Astros and Nats each have two and Greinke has been but doubt he maintains going forward but certainly could be wrong)